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Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2024 Stage 17: Selva di Val Gardena/Wolkenstein in Gröden – Passo Brocon, 159.0k

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It‘s now or never for the Arensman card (or at least until Grappa). Ineos need time, maybe pressure Bora???

They'd also directly pressure Bahrain into working to save Tiberi's white jersey.

But if they want to try a long one with Arensman this stage seems to be the day. He's still almost 3 minutes behind 3rd though, it's Ineos so I guess they are gonna play it save, have Arensman fight against Tiberi and Thomas tries to hang in for third. If they attack with Arensman early to me that would indicate, that they think Thomas won't be able to hold off O'Connor. That in turn could motivate AG2R to drill it.

So AG2R and Bahrain to gift the stage to Pogi if Arensman attacks early (and get's away far enough for a long hunt).
 
It’s funny how the same climb counts as second category the first time, but as first category the second time. The toughest climb of the day is actually the first one, even though it’s short. Such a climb in the very beginning can be tricky. If someone from the top 10 gets dropped early, things could get hectic.

More likely they’ll take the first climb quietly. The breakaway will have a better chance to stay away this time, because a stage with four big climbs would be tough for UAE to control all day. Quintana, Chaves, Pozzovivo and Caruso should grab the opportunity.
 
The profile is brutal, no flats, a lot of climbing and poor weather. This could be an epic stage and another massacre in the GC. Instead a breakaway will be allowed to go for victory. As for the GC action, there could be some for podium spots OFC. Teddy should really be saving himself for the Tour right now instead of ridiculing his opponents further and making the gap exceed 10 minutes.
 
It’s funny how the same climb counts as second category the first time, but as first category the second time. The toughest climb of the day is actually the first one, even though it’s short. Such a climb in the very beginning can be tricky. If someone from the top 10 gets dropped early, things could get hectic.

More likely they’ll take the first climb quietly. The breakaway will have a better chance to stay away this time, because a stage with four big climbs would be tough for UAE to control all day. Quintana, Chaves, Pozzovivo and Caruso should grab the opportunity.
Another twist to this is that the first climb is Cima Coppi, right? Should increase the number of eager climbers wanting to do a full speed 9k effort from the gun.
 
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It’s funny how the same climb counts as second category the first time, but as first category the second time. The toughest climb of the day is actually the first one, even though it’s short. Such a climb in the very beginning can be tricky. If someone from the top 10 gets dropped early, things could get hectic.

More likely they’ll take the first climb quietly. The breakaway will have a better chance to stay away this time, because a stage with four big climbs would be tough for UAE to control all day. Quintana, Chaves, Pozzovivo and Caruso should grab the opportunity.
Do you mean Brocon? They are using two different sides, hence two different categories.
 
The profile is brutal, no flats, a lot of climbing and poor weather. This could be an epic stage and another massacre in the GC. Instead a breakaway will be allowed to go for victory. As for the GC action, there could be some for podium spots OFC. Teddy should really be saving himself for the Tour right now instead of ridiculing his opponents further and making the gap exceed 10 minutes.
We want the 3Peat in the 3rd week.
 
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If someone really still wants to try to go for the KOM jersey, today is a good day to rack up some points. 167 points in total to be gained.
thought about it too, but we'll probably get to see some Italians (well, Scaroni) going full out for the Cima Coppi instead and fade later on, while the better climbers in the break only play their cards near the finish. I'd be surprised if anyone really gets any close to collecting all points.
 
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What are Decathlon doing with VPP? Looked the second strongest climber in the race and have had him by O’Connor’s side ever since his stage win - seems strange. He can defo win another stage if he is allowed to go for it, and O’Connor is not looking great
 
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He is trying but other teams force him to win. Good strategy if you ask me, regarding Tour, to exploit the only weakens Pogi seems to have. Unlimited desire to win.

Bora likely working for Pogi today.
With who? The only sort of climber Bora has apart from Martinez is Aleotti. A strong break is likely to go up the road on Sella. Bora won't get even close to probably keeping the break under 5 mins to make UAE chase.
 
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So bad the field is so weak compared to Pog, this stage looks very juicy on paper. I'll go with break for the win, Quintana should try to win here. GC... ? Probably someone in 2-5 places will definitely lose his spot because of the fatigue.
 
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