Around 2:30 to 3 I think. Last year's Tour TT, while flat, was somehow still more rolling than this. Gall is also prone to rest-day itis. Or, at least, was worse than par every post-rest day stage last year.
- Feb 20, 2012
- 56,514
- 48,213
- 28,180
Gall is too good right now to drop a huge stinker I think. It's also early enough in the race that you don't get wild swings from fatigued TTs.
For me the most likely range is between 1'30 and 1'45
- Jul 7, 2013
- 9,797
- 17,101
- 23,180
Gall said he had worked on his TTs a lot so maybe it will be in this range indeed.
- Apr 30, 2011
- 50,562
- 33,117
- 28,180
gc riders on the two mtfs combined ( without boni )
- vingegaard
- gall - 0'25"
- hindley - 1'52"
- rondel - 2'15"
- oconnor - 2'17"
- arensman - 2'18"
- gee - 2'28"
- pellizzari - 2'33"
- storer - 2'34"
- piganzoli - 3'29"
- eulalio - 3'36"
- Jun 11, 2021
- 2,355
- 5,359
- 12,180
Voted Vingegaard because Arensmann will put 5 minutes into him in the time trial on Tuesday and Gall will overtake him in the Dolomites.
Gall lost 1:43 against Vingegaard in CAen (33km)
www.procyclingstats.com
Tour de France 2025 Stage 5 (ITT) results
Tour de France 2025 Stage 5 (ITT) from Caen to Caen was won by Remco Evenepoel before Tadej PogaÄar and Edoardo Affini. Tadej PogaÄar was leading the general classification.
www.procyclingstats.com
- Apr 17, 2013
- 6,534
- 471
- 18,580
Voted for Gee to finish on the podium before the Giro started and I am still sticking to this with the more epic stages and a TT to come and considering that Gee will time his shape perfectly for this.
- Jul 15, 2021
- 1,198
- 2,435
- 7,680
Not really, as far as I can tell, most people here still talk about 'the two aliens'.
Are we enjoying the Giro so far?
GC was never going to be entertaining but I think there were a couple of interesting stages already.
GC was never going to be entertaining but I think there were a couple of interesting stages already.
Pogacar isn’t the biggest freak of all time.
Jonas is almost thirty and has won 3 grand tours, I’d say he’s fairly appreciated as a great gc rider.
- Jul 15, 2021
- 1,198
- 2,435
- 7,680
I mean, yeah, the battle for the top spot was never going te be entertaining, but two unipuerto stages also didn't help to make things more exciting. I actually find a completely flat sprint stage more exciting than a unipuerto one nowadays (but make sure @Divergence doesn't hear that).
However, the rest of the stages in general were really good so far!
So, as my expectations to be entertained were pretty low to begin with, I'm actually pretty happy about the entertainment level so far.
- Jul 20, 2017
- 655
- 821
- 12,180
- Jul 8, 2017
- 3,035
- 4,001
- 19,180
I think the situation is even better than Vingegaard hoped for.
He now has only one rider within 2 minutes and that's, on paper, the most vulnerable contender, who should normally be 2 minutes behind after the TT himself, while everyone else should be more than 3 minutes back.
Arensman could be close though.
That said, if he (Arensman) has his usual rise in week 2 and 3, he may be the favourite for the third. And who knows? Maybe even for second.
He now has only one rider within 2 minutes and that's, on paper, the most vulnerable contender, who should normally be 2 minutes behind after the TT himself, while everyone else should be more than 3 minutes back.
Arensman could be close though.
That said, if he (Arensman) has his usual rise in week 2 and 3, he may be the favourite for the third. And who knows? Maybe even for second.
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- Jul 7, 2013
- 9,797
- 17,101
- 23,180
Hindley or Arensman. The latter will gain time during the TT but how much? This could even decide the 3rd place.
Arensman is a strong TT-ist but his TTs in recent GTs weren't spectacular. At last year's Tour he lost 1'15'' to Vingegaard and was barely 29'' better than Gall. Long TT at last year's Giro was better but still 21th place and 3 s/km lost to the winner. At last year's Vuelta Hindley was 23rd in the ITT (2.6 s/km lost to the winner).
Time for direct comparisons. Stage 3 of last year's giro was a direct comparison in a GT (14 km TT). Hindley was 18 seconds behind Arensman (losing 1.3 s/km) but there was a small climb (1.5 km at 5%). At this year's Tirreno Arensman was 2.3 s/km ahead of Hindley so a more significant gain.
Hindley is 28 seconds ahead of Arensman. Assuming 1.5-2 s/km lost the TT gap would be about 1'-1'30''. However in some GT TTs I mentioned Arensman underperformed and Hindley did ok rides. Hindley will probably be 30-60 seconds behind Arensman after the TT (good for him if it's only 30 seconds so 1 minute lost in the TT).
When it comes to the mountains it's not obvious. Hindley is a former Giro winner and had some great performances in the past but he's not been spectacular in recent years and this year his stage-racing results were poor. Arensman is a solid rider and had some great mountain performances deep into the Tour last year so he can be really strong in 3rd week. Hindley gained 26'' in first two MTFs (so he's been a bit stronger so far) but their 3rd week strength comparison is still a bit of mystery to me. My pick is Hindley but only because of his Giro history and my preferences. Maybe on Piancavallo he'll have another strong performance like in 2020, who knows?
Arensman is a strong TT-ist but his TTs in recent GTs weren't spectacular. At last year's Tour he lost 1'15'' to Vingegaard and was barely 29'' better than Gall. Long TT at last year's Giro was better but still 21th place and 3 s/km lost to the winner. At last year's Vuelta Hindley was 23rd in the ITT (2.6 s/km lost to the winner).
Time for direct comparisons. Stage 3 of last year's giro was a direct comparison in a GT (14 km TT). Hindley was 18 seconds behind Arensman (losing 1.3 s/km) but there was a small climb (1.5 km at 5%). At this year's Tirreno Arensman was 2.3 s/km ahead of Hindley so a more significant gain.
Hindley is 28 seconds ahead of Arensman. Assuming 1.5-2 s/km lost the TT gap would be about 1'-1'30''. However in some GT TTs I mentioned Arensman underperformed and Hindley did ok rides. Hindley will probably be 30-60 seconds behind Arensman after the TT (good for him if it's only 30 seconds so 1 minute lost in the TT).
When it comes to the mountains it's not obvious. Hindley is a former Giro winner and had some great performances in the past but he's not been spectacular in recent years and this year his stage-racing results were poor. Arensman is a solid rider and had some great mountain performances deep into the Tour last year so he can be really strong in 3rd week. Hindley gained 26'' in first two MTFs (so he's been a bit stronger so far) but their 3rd week strength comparison is still a bit of mystery to me. My pick is Hindley but only because of his Giro history and my preferences. Maybe on Piancavallo he'll have another strong performance like in 2020, who knows?
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His TdF TT is not a relevant comparison because he already said before the Tour that he was going stagehunting. Long TT at last year's Giro is more interesting, but don't forget that most GC guys there had severely worse weather conditions than the early starters (hence why Hoole won that one). Arensman won time on almost every GC guy that TT.
Not a very hot take, but tomorrow will favour the heavy engines heavily. 42km, flat as a pancake, long straits. I think people might underestimate how much guys like Gee, Arensman but also Vingegaard can gain on the pure climbers.
Not a very hot take, but tomorrow will favour the heavy engines heavily. 42km, flat as a pancake, long straits. I think people might underestimate how much guys like Gee, Arensman but also Vingegaard can gain on the pure climbers.
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- Apr 30, 2011
- 50,562
- 33,117
- 28,180
looking ahead for tomorrow , i think niklas larsen will be the best dane and top5 the stage . top3 is possible too
- Sep 2, 2011
- 17,817
- 14,310
- 28,180
I'd say top3 is even likely. There aren't many great TTers in the startlist. Who would you say is the second biggest favorite for tomorrow?
- Aug 29, 2009
- 8,927
- 8,625
- 23,180
Maybe Milesi. He seems to be in the shape of his life, so if that translates to his time trialing - he didn't exactly save himself for this day - I guess he should be among the best.
- Sep 2, 2011
- 17,817
- 14,310
- 28,180
Arensman looks great for a podium spot at the moment, but I wouldn't say he's a sure bet to improve as the race progresses.
It's true he was flying at the end of the second week and third week in Tour 2026, but he got progressively worse both in Giro 2024 and Giro 2025 especially.
Good shout, although he's lost a couple of kilos compared to last year. Not sure if that translates to better TT numbers.
To me he now looks a bit more like the rider he was back in 2022, his last year with the DSM devo team. Back then, he was a good time trialist, but he could also smash those short, punchy hills and hold his own on the longer climbs.
It's true he was flying at the end of the second week and third week in Tour 2026, but he got progressively worse both in Giro 2024 and Giro 2025 especially.
Good shout, although he's lost a couple of kilos compared to last year. Not sure if that translates to better TT numbers.
To me he now looks a bit more like the rider he was back in 2022, his last year with the DSM devo team. Back then, he was a good time trialist, but he could also smash those short, punchy hills and hold his own on the longer climbs.
- May 2, 2026
- 76
- 171
- 380
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