Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2026, Stage 18: Fai della Paganella – Pieve di Soligo, 171.0k

Sep 20, 2017
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The last chance of the race for a huge chunk of the peloton.

Map and profile

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Start

Every now and again, a GT will include a stage host that gives me absolutely nothing to work with, and that’s the case today. Fai della Paganella is one village over from yesterday’s finish in Andalo, and the two share a ski resort. It has never hosted the Giro, and the most interesting thing there aside from the (admittedly very pretty) landscape is a originally 17th-century hunting lodge for the local nobility.

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(picture by Matteo Ianeselli at Wikimedia Commons)

The route

After a long neutralisation down the descent into the Adige valley, the stage starts with 20 very flat kilometres into Trento, the capital of Trentino. The city is famous as the seat of the Council of Trent (1545-1563), where the Catholic Church decided on how to address the Protestant Reformation. They settled on implementing a number of much-needed reforms in terms of how the church was run (the lack thereof was of course a main driver of the schism), but also formally defended Catholic traditions that had come under Protestant attack and condemned Protestantism itself, thereby launching the Counter-Reformation. While still in the city itself, the road starts to climb for the first time. The ascent takes us to Forte di Civezzano, and it’s decidedly more irregular than it looks on the stage profile. This should really have been a cat. 3, and it will greatly help the puncheurs looking to join the break.

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There are two more little hills, to Madrano (2.4k at 5.0%) and Sella di Vignola (2.4k at 4.3%), then the road flattens out. The next 45 kilometres down the Valsugana are very easy, with a net elevation loss of over 300 metres but barely any undulations. This section ends with the massively overcategorised Scale di Primolano, with the KOM just after the actual summit in Fastro.

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The route now heads around the foot of Monte Grappa, passing through Feltre, where we will be finishing tomorrow. Upon reaching the edge of the Po Valley, it turns east, into prosecco country. Prime prosecco country, in fact – most of the remaining 45 kilometres are in the area that was UNESCO-listed in 2019. The first port of call is Valdobbiadene, the most common Giro host in the area. On the outskirts of this town, the road starts to climb again, for the double ascent to San Pietro di Barbozza and Combai. In between the two, the riders pass through the intermediate sprint in Guia.

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There is a valley after this as the riders make their way to the bonus sprint in Tarzo, located just after another easy hill.

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And then, it’s time for Vegni’s parting shot. Muro di Ca’ del Poggio was already the most-used climb during his tenure as race director, and of course he had to include it one last time for his final Giro. It would not surprise me to learn that RCS decided on the finish location for this stage so that it could be used in an interesting spot for once.

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Finish

Only 9.3k separate the KOM from the finish, and with a little descent in there, these should be fast kilometres. The final kilometre is not really suited to any sort of sprint, with a fairly noticeable curve at barely 100 metres to go.

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Although its church is first mentioned in the 12th century, the area that comprises Pieve di Soligo consisted of multiple villages until they clustered into a town in the first half of the 20th century. Said church was also demolished and rebuilt during this period. The town retains a significant industrial presence, but is also very much part of the prosecco-producing area. While the Giro has not visited before, the town is quite supportive of cycling, annually hosting the junior race Trofeo GD Dorigo that also uses the Ca’ del Poggio as its main climb. It has amassed quite the roll of honour since it became a UCI race in 2003, having been won by the likes of Simon Špilak, Lorenzo Fortunato, Felix Gall, Antonio Tiberi, Romain Grégoire and Paul Seixas.

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(picture by Marek.69 at Wikimedia Commons)

What to expect?

It seems almost impossible to keep a lid on the break this deep into the race on a route like this. With the lack of hard hills before the final one, it’s a great route for anticipatory attacks, opening up the race to a wide array of rider types. Ca’ del Poggio is hard enough and close enough to the finish that GC action is possible, but with the queen stage looming large, it would hardly be a surprise if the big names keep their powder dry.
 
Feb 20, 2012
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Tbf it also affected the race when it featured in the 2020 TT.
Actually wasn't Roglic dropped on this last year because 1. he was *** by that point and 2. he was asleep as per usual in that phase of the race?

Anyway, I think GC action could be an angle if you manage to get teammates in this breakaway, but it also shouldn't work for Red Bull because Ineos Ganna mow that down.
 
Mar 31, 2015
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magnier has no chance to get anywhere near points in any shape whatsoever
I disagree, he's gotten over the Muur in good shape this year and even better shape last year (same length, though slightly less steep). It's just that his climbing has dropped off as his sprinting has improved, and his climbing has been especially worse this race (but his top speed at an all time high)
 
Sep 20, 2017
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No, the one that saw him in the front group of Dwars and main group in Omloop
That's a completely different kettle of fish. Soudal's path is Narváez not making the break tomorrow, not Magnier getting points tomorrow. If they can pull that off, then the ciclamino will be decided in the final sprint in Rome no matter what else happens.
 
Jan 27, 2012
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I think Magnier is in survival mode, this being his first 3rd week of a GT. Better off trying to get to Rome in a somewhat competitive state. In the meantime, QS will just have to mark Narvaez somehow, probably with little success.
 
Mar 31, 2015
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That's a completely different kettle of fish. Soudal's path is Narváez not making the break tomorrow, not Magnier getting points tomorrow. If they can pull that off, then the ciclamino will be decided in the final sprint in Rome no matter what else happens.
If Magnier doesn't score any points tomorrow then the race for ciclamino is over – not mathematically, but realistically. Playing it defensively is accepting defeat and hoping for miracle against Narvaez; playing it aggressively will also likely backfire but doing that and hoping for a miracle with Magnier at least keeps you in control.

That said, I think it's done either way. Magnier isn't getting over the climb these days, and Narvaez will score tomorrow and has 24 nice intermediate sprints points in the following days.
 
Aug 29, 2009
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in the end, it's a <3 minute climb. Not that I think Magnier will make it over there in front, but Quickstep may give it a try, especially if Narvaez makes the break. Movistar and NSN should as well. They are not capable of breakaway wins anyway.
 
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Jul 8, 2017
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I disagree, he's gotten over the Muur in good shape this year and even better shape last year (same length, though slightly less steep). It's just that his climbing has dropped off as his sprinting has improved, and his climbing has been especially worse this race (but his top speed at an all time high)

I would say that getting through Muur alongside sprinters and heavy classic guys is quite different (easier) from getting through Muro alongside climbers and punchers.
Hence, it would require an effort we've never seen from Magnier before. Or have we?
 
Feb 20, 2012
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People saying Magnier could survive this I only ask which grade of crack y'all smoking.

Check stage 2 and 4 of the TdF last year and how hard a race can explode on a much easier climbs
 
Sep 20, 2017
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If Magnier doesn't score any points tomorrow then the race for ciclamino is over – not mathematically, but realistically. Playing it defensively is accepting defeat and hoping for miracle against Narvaez; playing it aggressively will also likely backfire but doing that and hoping for a miracle with Magnier at least keeps you in control.

That said, I think it's done either way. Magnier isn't getting over the climb these days, and Narvaez will score tomorrow and has 24 nice intermediate sprints points in the following days.
How so? If neither were to score tomorrow, then even Narváez winning both intermediate sprints on the remaining mountain stages would put the gap at 'only' 36 points, with a maximum of 62 points to play for in Rome. That's a fighting chance.

Tomorrow is nailed on for the break, so Narváez missing the break would do it. The steep part of the first climb tomorrow is quite narrow, so if I'm the Soudal DS, my plan A for tomorrow is try to make sure some sort of break is up the road before the climb, swarm the front right before they hit it, and then put everything into blocking the road. 5 riders would probably be enough to do it. It wouldn't even be that dirty by their standards - remember the decisive golden kilometre at the 2022 Belgium Tour?

Said climb will also probably see Magnier dropped if it's raced hard, so that's another reason why your plan won't work.
 
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Mar 31, 2015
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I would say that getting through Muur alongside sprinters and heavy classic guys is quite different (easier) from getting through Muro alongside climbers and punchers.
Hence, it would require an effort we've never seen from Magnier before. Or have we?
We have, but not in a while and I don't actually think it'll happen. But Magnier until the end of spring was really good on 3-4 minute efforts, usually a tad easier than this. He won in Diest last year, beating del Grosso in an uphill sprint, and had a CX background. He's followed the Remco path since and bulked up for sprints.

But anyway, I just don't think there's a real chance of nilling Narvaez tomorrow. Which in turn means Magnier has to somehow score if he is to win ciclamino, which is even more of a long shot.
 
Feb 20, 2012
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the muro is harder than mur de huy , previous performances on hills with just a third of the vertical gain against sprinters is not just one but at least two leagues lower
This is probably where people gonna think I'm trolling when I say Vingegaard has a way higher chance of winning this stage than Magnier.
 
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