Half of NSN came down on stage 2, including Strong, so honestly not really sure they will contribute much to a hard pace on the climb, or even be able to. I'd also rate Vernon as a better climber than Magnier or Milan, so they may even be interested to keep that option alive.
But yeah, all in all difficult to say how this will unfold. Maybe I'm undererstimating the climb a bit, but I'd normally think the likes of Lund, Aular, Turner will make it. Maybe van Uden as well, if he doesn't suffer too much from his crash. His climbing shape looked great in Turkey.