Giro d'Italia | 2nd Rest Day Thread

Who will win the 2020 Giro?

  • Joao Almeida

    Votes: 8 11.1%
  • Wilco Kelderman

    Votes: 30 41.7%
  • Jai Hindley

    Votes: 3 4.2%
  • Tao Geoghegan Hart

    Votes: 14 19.4%
  • Pello Bilbao

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Rafal Majka

    Votes: 2 2.8%
  • Vincenzo/Antonio Nibali

    Votes: 12 16.7%
  • Domenico Pozzovivo

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Patrick Konrad

    Votes: 1 1.4%
  • Other

    Votes: 2 2.8%

  • Total voters
  • Poll closed .
So the old fighters are not fighting much these days.
And the kids are not fading as expected.
We're all waiting for those tests to come out negative and those weather forecast to keep looking as bright as they do now.

The Giro magical third week is coming. Who's gonna win this race?
No idea, pretty much everyone in the top 10 could suddenly blow up in the high mountains.
Kelderman is clearly the favourite, but there's no way to know if he won't lose 5-10 minutes somewhere. Almeida has had an excellent race, really impressive, but he can't hold on anymore imo. Ineos surprise or even McNulty is still possible too.

If we take away the top 2 there's only just over 2 minutes between #3 Hindley and #12 Fuglsang, it's an open race. I have no idea. I guess I'll go with Nibali, just on 3rd week experience.
Kelderman has the chance of a lifetime to win a GT. He was a bright young talent several years ago, but he fell a bit off the radar due to injuries. Now, in a Giro with lots of problems he's all of a sudden back at his very best.

Hart will probably be his main rival, but I don't think he can take two minutes back. Of course on Thursday and Saturday a lot is possible if the course stays as planned, but I think Kelderman will have enough strength and support to take and keep pink. Almeida might stay in the top 5 or so, but he's bound to lose more time in the high mountains. Nibali and Fuglsang won't have a miraculous third week. Yesterday's trend will just continue.
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Meanwhile an update on my ninja watch.

Aurelien Paret-Peintre (from now on APP) has climbed all the way to the 18th place in GC while never finishing a stage in the top20.
Antonio Pedrero is currently 13th and never finished a stage higher than 13th.
Attila Valter looks like a possible outsider but might fancy his chances in a break later in the race.
Reactions: Sandisfan
Oct 8, 2020
Given the stages in the 3rd week, anything can still happen.
Someone could crash on a descent, someone else could loose time on a climb, someone could just suffer because of low temperatures or because of altitude.

I think that experience will play a key role in the 3rd week. Consider, for example, a stage like the Alba-Sestriere (20th stage). 5000 m of elevation gain, 200 km, 4 climbs, 2 climbs well above 2000 m, 19 days of fatigue already in the legs, low temperatures, long descents.
When they will reach the Agnello at 2744 m, the temperature will be just above freezing (and they will be lucky, usually at the end of October the temperature is well below freezing) so they need to plan carefully what to wear, when to slow down or stop to put on a jacket and/or other clothes, when to drink and eat something even if it's freezing. Moreover, the descent is 21 km long (2744 m to 1350 m) so they will be exposed to cold windchill for quite a long time.
Now consider that the same thing will happen on the Izoard, even though in less extreme conditions (the Izoard is 400 m lower than the Agnello). Then you have 2 more climbs to go, they are not particularly difficult but if you made some mistake on the Agnello or the Izoard you will pay the consequences.

If a GC rider blows out on the Agnello (kind of like Yates on the Finestre) he could loose at least 20 minutes. Same for Izoard (10 minutes) and Monginevro (5 minutes).
Sep 18, 2020
I really hope for some Landa-Aru type of action with Hindley being stronger than Kelderman and ultimately going for the win, while his leader fades on Stelvio/Agnello, ideally because of Nibali attacks.
Reactions: Sandisfan
I really hope for some Landa-Aru type of action with Hindley being stronger than Kelderman and ultimately going for the win, while his leader fades on Stelvio/Agnello, ideally because of Nibali attacks.
I'd welcome it but I have a feeling this season's irregularities are not for veterans. So maybe Hart will just play Contador and make it awkward for Hindley until he decide to take it head on, leave Wilco and never look back, and we'll get Tao vs Jai showdown in the sky.
If Nibali wins again after some misfortune happens to his opponents who are looking clearly better than him right now, that would seriously be some crazy supernatural ***. On the other hand, among them, Kelderman is the only one who showed consistency on this level in the past. If for example Almeida loses 20min on one of the remaining stages, nobody should be surprised.

I'm really intrigued in how will it unfold.
I went with Hart. Just having Ganna to pull in the flats is a huge help. Plus, I hadn't really realized this, but all the time he lost was helping GT on stage 3. So he's been as strong as anybody, and still has a strong team around him that knows how to win a GT.

I'm still pulling for Nibali to make a comeback. If Kelderman wins, good job by Sunweb. My dark horse was McNulty but after yesterday I'm afraid he's not yet at the GT podium level.

Given the three huge mountain stages and ITT ahead, though, it's like we're starting fresh! I would not be shocked to see any of the top 11 or so win, frankly.