Giro d'Italia, Stage 19: Bergamo - Macugnaga 209km

[craig1985]

 

[Parrulo]

i hope good 'ol garzeli takes this one from the break and guarantees the kom jersey.

the last mountain seems to be easy according to giro standards

 

[gilbertador]

this and the 2 prior stages are the really failiure stages, really no need for another mountain top and especially one that is so poor, would prefer this to be replaced by sprinters stage, and montevergne to have been a 40km tt

 

[jobiwan]

So is this easier or harder than the stage De Clercq won on?
I saw someone else pick Garzelli; I think he'll be in the break, but I think he'll probably lose a sprint to another rider.
If Machado wants to salvage something from this Giro for the Shack, you'd think this would be the stage to do it. So, why not, Tiago FTW!

 

[The Hitch]

i hope good 'ol garzeli takes this one from the break and guarantees the kom jersey.

the last mountain seems to be easy according to giro standards

Ah yes. I hadnt thought of that but that is definately what i want to happen.

So is this easier or harder than the stage De Clercq won on?
I saw someone else pick Garzelli; I think he'll be in the break, but I think he'll probably lose a sprint to another rider.
If Machado wants to salvage something from this Giro for the Shack, you'd think this would be the stage to do it. So, why not, Tiago FTW!

Montevergine is harder. That stage was shorter but the final climb was harder. Montevergine was 5.3 average for 19k while this is a very very weak 5.0 for 16k. And where Montevergine had several km of 6-8 even one near the end of 8.6 this mountain is 5 or 6% all the way up.

First climb is ok at 6.5 % and 13km with final 3k at about 10%, but its about the same as the first climb of that stage.

But on the final climb i can see any attacks from gc men being pulled back.

 

[Ferminal]

Break could stay away, but will be very 50/50. If it's like yesterday the bunch will probably claw them back.

There will be a smaller sprint here than Montevergine, No more than 15-20 I think. That's if the bunch is in line for the stage win, otherwise they may cruise.

 

[cineteq]

Perfect stage for those top ten riders to improve on their positions...who's tired? Will Nibali or Rujano try go for it?

 

[Ferminal]

They will have to get past Przemyslaw first.

 

[xmoonx]

Perfect stage for those top ten riders to improve on their positions...who's tired? Will Nibali or Rujano try go for it?

+1
Ideal stage and the following one for someone 20-25 minutes down to challenge for a podium spot. Saxo-Bank would love that too and allow it. Make Liquigas and or Lampre do the work. I am thinking Garzelli (wishful thinking) if he has the legs. Classic Sastre move but he's like 40+ minutes down.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Montevergine was really meh. Expected that tho.

Only thing this stage has going for it is tired bodies.

Stage 20 please..

 

[Scirea]

I would expect Lampre to try something tomorrow since Niemiec and Spilak both got the day off today and finished in the grupetto.

Other notable names in the grupetto who might go for it tomorrow: Pirazzi, Sella, Lastras, Nocentini, Dani Moreno, Di Luca, Samoilau, Kiryienka...

 

[greenedge]

I hope the GC favourites race this in an exciting way. However i want the break to win. I shall go with Deignan/ Moreno

 

[Scirea]

I think tomorrow will be the day when Kiryienka gets into the break, after 2 days when everybody tipped him.

 

[blaxland]

Hopefully Ritchie Porte can get into the break..

 

[craig1985]

I think tomorrow will be the day when Kiryienka gets into the break, after 2 days when everybody tipped him.

The way I figure is that if you tip him often enough, he will win

 

[The Barb]

Agree with everyone about Kiryienka. Surely today's the day he gets in the break after that cruisy day he had yesterday?

2008 Giro
Stage 18 - Kiryienka 125th @ 10.54
Stage 19 - Kiryienka WINS mountain finish from breakaway*

2011 Giro
Stage 18 - Kiryienka 149th @ 14.56
Stage 19 - ???

*Won by nearly five minutes attacking at the bottom of the final climb.

I've back him @ $23 to win just over $A3000. Fingers crossed.

 

[luckyboy]

This mtf looks harder in profile than the close-up showing the gradients.

 

[Scirea]

I've back him @ $23 to win just over $A3000. Fingers crossed.

You were robbed, i got him @51

 

[The Barb]

You were robbed, i got him @51

Sheesh! Nice work you!

That's a sensational price.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I may be wrong, not knowing the climb, but I think folks may be underestimating it a little.
These Alpine valley things tend to have a few ramps along the way.

If Garzelli gets to the finish in a break, he's odds on favourite to take a 5% gradient sprint. People forget he has always had quite a decent kick.
Break to stick.


Meanwhile, the peloton will hammer along it's slopes, probably with Liquigas on the front, until a select group of 20-30 riders contest their finish.

 

[luckyboy]

Yeah it'll be similar to Montevergine di Mercogliano in terms of the result, though not as close to the breakaway.

 

[Scirea]

If Garzelli gets to the finish in a break, he's odds on favourite to take a 5% gradient sprint. People forget he has always had quite a decent kick.
Break to stick.

IF he gets into the breakaway and IF it gets home and IF its coming down to a sprint for a few guys then yes, he will have a really good chance. Not sure all 3 things will happen.

 

[Sasquatch]

A break will definitely get away tonight.

Liquigas don't want Scarponi picking up bonus seconds at the end.

My tips

1. Sella
2. Kiriyenka
3. Di Luca
4. Lewis
5. Spilak

 

[Frosty]

I would have thought that some potential breakaways will be waiting for tomorrow as it is the bigger prize but will Garzelli try and secure the mountains jersey today(can he?). If Lovkvist is feeling better then he may well have a go at getting in the break on this one. Its one i fancy he could do well on. Maybe Sella will wait for tomorrow. Machado should get in a break if he can do

As far as the main contenders go there is only today and tomorrow to use team-mates. Tomorrow they are only going to be used on the flat - as soon as they start climbing at tomorrow's %s then they will go out the back door. This may encourage someone with a strong team and who is feeling strong, to raise the pace quite a lot in between the climbs and at the start of the long climb to the finish to see if they can shake anyone out.

EDIT: Could be a good one for Di Luca as well with it not being that steep.

 

[boomcie]

A break will definitely get away tonight.

Liquigas don't want Scarponi picking up bonus seconds at the end.

My tips

1. Sella
2. Kiriyenka
3. Di Luca
4. Lewis
5. Spilak

Kiryienka must really be in the good break today or tomorrow, otherwise I'd say his Giro sucked kind of massively, despite his good showings in a few mountain stages.