Giro d'Italia Stage 4: Savigliano - Cuneo (TTT) 32.5km

[Moondance]

So as the riders recover from a myriad of crashes and peleton splits over the Dutch leg, the debate can now commence over the first major GC showdown, a 32km Team Time Trial to Cuneo, a city which has been featured in the Giro as recently as last year and also in 2002, although both those times it was a departure city.

Pre-race TTT favorite Garmin (well, my favorite anyway) has been dealt a killer blow with the Stage 3 DNF of Christian Vande Velde, which effectively takes them out of the running for the day victory. Sky will be strong favorite now if the damage that a rash of crashes they've been in haven't caused semi-permanent damage, and a strong, largely crash-resistent Liquigas will be right on their heels. Evans and his BMC boys share the unfortunate fate along with Garmin of being the only team with an abandon at this point, and therefore share the daunting task of starting with a man down.

My picks:

*** Team Sky
** Liquigas, Columbia
* Cervelo, Rabobank, Astana

 

[Barrus]

My personal pick:

**** Columbia
*** Astana, Liquigas, Sky
** Rabobank Cervelo, Saxo, Garmin

 

[Moondance]

I don't know about Astana's chances as your #2 favorite. With Vino and Hyrvko they'll certainly do well, but they're also on deck with guys Valentin (not Maxim) Inglinsky, Jufre Pou, Kireyev and Tiralongo.... All of whom I'm very bearish on when TTing is considered. If they work together well they'll be able to get a good result and keep the losses low... But top Liquigas or Sky... I don't see it.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Columbia to win and put Sieberg in pink. He's the kind of rider I'd love to see in the leaders jersey, a dedicated teammate who spend most of his career doing hard work for his captains.

 

[Barrus]

I don't know about Astana's chances as your #2 favorite. With Vino and Hyrvko they'll certainly do well, but they're also on deck with guys Valentin (not Maxim) Inglinsky, Jufre Pou, Kireyev and Tiralongo.... All of whom I'm very bearish on when TTing is considered. If they work together well they'll be able to get a good result and keep the losses low... But top Liquigas or Sky... I don't see it.

Oh, I mean that those three are on the same level for me. Astana the last two days show that they work really well together and I do have the hunch that they might well surprise wednesday. No real reason for that, other than their good show on the flat stages as a squad, just a feeling, and I am and will remain a gambling man

 

[Berzin]

I don't know who will win or who has the strongest TT team on paper, but I'll be rooting for Astana and Vino.

 

[python]

I don't know about Astana's chances as your #2 favorite. With Vino and Hyrvko they'll certainly do well, but they're also on deck with guys Valentin (not Maxim) Inglinsky, Jufre Pou, Kireyev and Tiralongo.... All of whom I'm very bearish on when TTing is considered. If they work together well they'll be able to get a good result and keep the losses low... But top Liquigas or Sky... I don't see it.

you did not mention 2 other strong engines - gasparotto and dyachenko. these 2 plus vino and gryvko can deliver. also don't forget astana will be starting last having an advantage of knowing who they may need to burn early in order to arrive with 5 strong guys for an official count. I am not putting astana on the podium (katusha though is a good bet not mentioned by others) but top five is certainly possible and cadel will likely lose another 30 seconds to vino.

 

[ErmOkk]

Looks like one hell of a hard TT!

 

[Moondance]

you did not mention 2 other strong engines - gasparotto and dyachenko. these 2 plus vino and gryvko can deliver. also don't forget astana will be starting last having an advantage of knowing who they may need to burn early in order to arrive with 5 strong guys for an official count. I am not putting astana on the podium (katusha though is a good bet not mentioned by others) but top five is certainly possible and cadel will likely lose another 30 seconds to vino.

I don't know about Dyachenko's TTing capabilities.... True, he did finish reasonably high in the opening Amsterdam TT, but in the Romandie TTs last week he finished pretty far down. Performances from last year are largely uninspiring too. He certainly won't be an 'anchor' (to use the best term that came to mind) on the time that a V. Iglinsky or Jufre Pou will be be... But to call him an asset is a bit rich.

Gasparotto is indeed a strong all-rounder who will be useful.

 

[python]

I don't know about Dyachenko's TTing capabilities.... True, he did finish reasonably high in the opening Amsterdam TT, but in the Romandie TTs last week he finished pretty far down. Performances from last year are largely uninspiring too. He certainly won't be an 'anchor' (to use the best term that came to mind) on the time that a V. Iglinsky or Jufre Pou will be be... But to call him an asset is a bit rich.

Gasparotto is indeed a strong all-rounder who will be useful.

ttt contributions of individual riders are not always best indexed by a riders tt record or performances. in a tt, ideally, a rider keeps/tries to keep his effort at a steady threshold, say 90% of VO2 max watts. in a ttt the effort is about 100-105% vO2 max for 30-40 seconds at the front and 80-90% whilst off the front.

riders with anaerobic talents do well. dyacheko is one.

dyachenko is considered by vino the greatest kazakh talent, his replacement if he works hard.

 

[jens_attacks]

I don't know who will win or who has the strongest TT team on paper, but I'll be rooting for Astana and Vino.

yeah me too.

my bets:
1.Sky
2.Garmin +0:15
3.Saxo +0:20
4.Astana+0:20
5.Liquigas+0:30
.......................
Cervelo+1:20
BMC+2:00

 

[Barrus]

you did not mention 2 other strong engines - gasparotto and dyachenko. these 2 plus vino and gryvko can deliver. also don't forget astana will be starting last having an advantage of knowing who they may need to burn early in order to arrive with 5 strong guys for an official count. I am not putting astana on the podium (katusha though is a good bet not mentioned by others) but top five is certainly possible and cadel will likely lose another 30 seconds to vino.

Katusha, I actually completely forgotten about them. However I wonder how bad Pozzato's leg is. Karpets and McEwen seem to be riding well these days. Ignatiev also appeared to hae good form, althoug I do not know enough about the rest of their team, but they might well make a good showing

 

[Jamsque]

I really have no idea how this will play out. There are a lot of teams with a lot to play for, and the only thing we can be sure of is that one of them is going to disappoint. I don't think being a man down will be a huge disadvantage to Garmin and BMC (although for sure Garmin lost the bigger engine), the course is long enough that most teams will probably be shedding riders at one point or another.

 

[python]

Katusha, I actually completely forgotten about them. However I wonder how bad Pozzato's leg is. Karpets and McEwen seem to be riding well these days. Ignatiev also appeared to hae good form, althoug I do not know enough about the rest of their team, but they might well make a good showing

they often do well in ttts (since the tinkoff days). dont know exactly why but there is a tradition. either they fall back on the special track skills many of them have (including ignatiev) or they practice more than others.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Kim Andersen makes an interesting point on danish cycling web site feltet.dk. He says Vinokourov could be a liability for his team in the TTT, as his strenght can rip his teammates to pieces

Edit: spelling

 

[python]

Kim Andersen makes an interesting point on danish cycling web site feltet.dk. He says Vinokourov could be a liability for his team in the TTT, as his strenght can rip his teammates to pieces

Edit: spelling

that's only if vino attack mode is on and the off button is stuck.

we all know vino is a much smarter rider than that.

also don't discount astana ds in the support car who ultimately determines what's going on with the pace.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I totally agree with you, just thought it was an interesting point worth mentioning.

 

[Moondance]

yeah me too.

my bets:
1.Sky
2.Garmin +0:15
3.Saxo +0:20
4.Astana+0:20
5.Liquigas+0:30
.......................
Cervelo+1:20
BMC+2:00

I don't see how an 8-man, Vande Velde-less, Garmin team beats a 9-man Sky, Astana or Liquigas. Enlighten me.

 

[Publicus]

So as the riders recover from a myriad of crashes and peleton splits over the Dutch leg, the debate can now commence over the first major GC showdown, a 32km Team Time Trial to Cuneo, a city which has been featured in the Giro as recently as last year and also in 2002, although both those times it was a departure city.

Pre-race TTT favorite Garmin (well, my favorite anyway) has been dealt a killer blow with the Stage 3 DNF of Christian Vande Velde, which effectively takes them out of the running for the day victory. Sky will be strong favorite now if the damage that a rash of crashes they've been in haven't caused semi-permanent damage, and a strong, largely crash-resistent Liquigas will be right on their heels. Evans and his BMC boys share the unfortunate fate along with Garmin of being the only team with an abandon at this point, and therefore share the daunting task of starting with a man down.

My picks:

*** Team Sky
** Liquigas, Columbia
* Cervelo, Rabobank, Astana

Not an especially technical course. I'm not sure who will win, but I would like it if Vino keeps himself in the top 3 at the end of the day.

 

[Rocksteady]

I really have no idea how this will play out. There are a lot of teams with a lot to play for, and the only thing we can be sure of is that one of them is going to disappoint. I don't think being a man down will be a huge disadvantage to Garmin and BMC (although for sure Garmin lost the bigger engine), the course is long enough that most teams will probably be shedding riders at one point or another.

+1 I still think we will see a very strong ride by Garmin. Will it be enough to win? Probably not, but I don't expect them to lose 30 secs either. I also think BMC will reduce its losses well. I think today may have been more experience than ability that caused the team to be out the back. I'm hoping they redeem themselves on Wednesday by staying right in the mix.

My picks:
Sky
Columbia
Garmin
L-Gas
Astana

 

[jens_attacks]

I don't see how an 8-man, Vande Velde-less, Garmin team beats a 9-man Sky, Astana or Liquigas. Enlighten me.

well it's just a prediction on a forum.details are boring.
don't take posts too seriously.it's wrong.

 

[taiwan]

Astana
HTC
Sky
Garmin
Saxo
Liquigas
Katusha
Cervélo
BMC
Androni

That is all.

 

[offbyone]

I think this is the Sky giro squad :

Bradley Wiggins
Michael Barry
David Cioni Dario
Steven Cummings
Christopher Froome
Mathew Hayman
Gregory Henderson
Morris Possoni
Christopher Sutton

I am not so sure this really represents their A list squad? If not than I don't see why they are necessarily a top choice to win the TTT. Wiggins can't win it alone.

Most of the teams with a big TdF contender don't have their top squad on tap for the Giro so I think this TTT is anyone's to win.

 

[stefrees]

I think this is the Sky giro squad :

Bradley Wiggins
Michael Barry
David Cioni Dario
Steven Cummings
Christopher Froome
Mathew Hayman
Gregory Henderson
Morris Possoni
Christopher Sutton

I am not so sure this really represents their A list squad? If not than I don't see why they are necessarily a top choice to win the TTT. Wiggins can't win it alone.

Most of the teams with a big TdF contender don't have their top squad on tap for the Giro so I think this TTT is anyone's to win.

quite a few riders there come from a team pursuit background - wiggins, cumminhs, henderson, sutton. barry and possoni have come from htc squad who won last years ttt, and sky have been aiming for this for a while.

although if hayman takes them through any corners, theyll lose

 

[sportzchick]

I am dreadding the TTT - I cant seen BMC giving a wimper