Agreed as to Nibali and Kreuziger. I'm not sure if clean Basso is a podium guy. Top 10, yes, but not podium, he'll crack and lose time on one or two of the climbs. Going with Pellizotti because of last year's podium.
I hope and think he has as well. His attacks at last year's Tour and Ardennes classics were just at foolish locations. However, his attack at Worlds was obviously perfect. It was good to see him riding aggressively at TDU. I'm hoping it was a case of being on Lotto which, other than Gilbert's romp last fall, seemed to be a curse. Hard to attack in the Tour when the other teams are ganging up on you and there are no teammates in sight (2008).