I think there were two bends on that course, the weather could hardly influence that much (even if we did see an upwards trend in time when the last riders came to the finish).
It is the odd one out but it's also the most recent one and there's no way to hide on such a completely flat and straight route.
I'm not saying he's the new Ganna and against Roglic, Remco, G and Almeida, he will obviously lose a lot of time regardless of whether he is slightly better than before ore not.
Upward trend has to be the understatement of the year. If you want ONE
11k TT with ludicrous results for 50% of the riders be the argument you want to cling to as reference for a total 70k of TT'ing and a guy who has only once managed a top 100 in a 25k TT or longer (97th place), by all means. There are 3 people debating me, as if i'm the unreasonable one. But this forum keeps wondering why i always write these long replies and why i always get involved in these discussions.
In any case, a guy like Higuita, is usually "decent" at TT's and miles ahead of Ciccone. Please compare their TT results if you don't believe me. If Ciccone were to reach that level in TT i would consider it an enormous success. I doubt he will reach the level of Higuita, but let's just amuse ourselfs and say he could.
Now let reality kick in. Higuita lost over 2 and a half minutes in the 30k Vuelta TT to Carlos Rodriguez
(not Evenepoel). Higuita lost 3m18s to Vlasov (who will also be going to the Giro) in the Romandie '22 TT.
It's not just Almeida, or just Thomas. It's also guys like Vlasov. Or Arensman, who will definitely end up in the top 10 of those TT's (certainly combined over 70k). And then there might be the surprise rider (we didn't expect Rodriguez or Ayuso in the Vuelta, we didn't expect Almeida in the '20 Giro). What if a guy like Van Wilder (unlikely as he will be working) or Skjelmose has a breakout performance? Those guys are also up there with Vlasov and Rodriguez in terms of TT. What if Vine turns out to be a GC rider? There are enough riders vastly superior at TT who he could lose a load of time to, and only one has to beat him by a considerable amount.
A scenario that might also unfold, is that he defends well in his first TT, then loses a bit more time in his second one, to completely blow up in his final TT. He is clearly not a naturally gifted TT'er and has clearly not been training on it throughout his career. Unlikely he will be able to sustain an ideal TT position under all circumstances and after 3 weeks of fatigue.