The strange case of Alexander Edmondson - 19 race days since the Giro - No confirmation he has resigned a new contract, but at the same time, no rumours of him leaving Orica - Is not involved in the track program - Has been training in Girona while his parents visited in late September - And now back to Australia in the last week - Strange indeed !
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Think Orica will go into the 2018 TDF with this type of team
A.Yates
Haig
Nieve
Trentin
Hepburn
Bauer
Impey
Albasini/Howson
A.Yates
Haig
Nieve
Trentin
Hepburn
Bauer
Impey
Albasini/Howson
I think ORS must have overraced Edmondson and he's just recovering from that.
For the TDF I would go for
S.Yates
C.Ewan
L.Durbridge
M.Trentin
D.Impey/ Bauer
L.Mezgec
Kreuziger
Haig
That team has the potential to smash the TTT, ensure Yates is well placed, secure him for the cobbles and able to get a stage victory through stagehunting if need be. I think this should be the year for Ewan to ride the TDF, as Chaves should have full leadership status at the Giro and support riders for Ewan would be able to ensure Simon is protected on the cobbled and windy stages.
Hypothetically my team for the Giro would hence be:
Chaves
A.Yates (superdomestique, with leadership at the Vuelta or the Ardennes guarenteed and allowing for a peak at the WC RR)
Nieve
Verona
Howson
Albasini
Hepburn
Bewley
Trentin (wanting to be free to stagehunt at his home race) and Kreuziger (maybe if there's a TTT and then Nieve to the TDF) could also ride the Giro too.
For the TDF I would go for
S.Yates
C.Ewan
L.Durbridge
M.Trentin
D.Impey/ Bauer
L.Mezgec
Kreuziger
Haig
That team has the potential to smash the TTT, ensure Yates is well placed, secure him for the cobbles and able to get a stage victory through stagehunting if need be. I think this should be the year for Ewan to ride the TDF, as Chaves should have full leadership status at the Giro and support riders for Ewan would be able to ensure Simon is protected on the cobbled and windy stages.
Hypothetically my team for the Giro would hence be:
Chaves
A.Yates (superdomestique, with leadership at the Vuelta or the Ardennes guarenteed and allowing for a peak at the WC RR)
Nieve
Verona
Howson
Albasini
Hepburn
Bewley
Trentin (wanting to be free to stagehunt at his home race) and Kreuziger (maybe if there's a TTT and then Nieve to the TDF) could also ride the Giro too.
Re:
Plausible enough scenario re Edmondson. this was essentially his neo-pro year given most of 2016 was lost to Olympic track commitments. His first part of the season was quite a solid bloc of top level racing.
As for GT line-ups, lets just wait until we have all three GTs routes/composition before we start saying who goes where.
100% agree. At least Chaves & both Yates can "hold on" with GT TTTs and, if in good shape, even pull the odd turn. Any TT beyond a 1-2km prologue and Ewan "doesn't want to know about it"; its one thing to carry a GC man who may not be strong in TT but there's a limitation as to how many you can afford "carry" in a now 8 man team (given you may also have a specialist climbing support) without haremorraging minutes.
As it is, am not sold on Ewan to Tour given he'll be up against the big trains (and Orica cannot provide him with one); he has SFA hope of making Paris ..... and he sure as hell can't ride cobbles. Its going to be interesting which, if any, GT they can send him to.
greenedge said:
Plausible enough scenario re Edmondson. this was essentially his neo-pro year given most of 2016 was lost to Olympic track commitments. His first part of the season was quite a solid bloc of top level racing.
As for GT line-ups, lets just wait until we have all three GTs routes/composition before we start saying who goes where.
]yaco said:
100% agree. At least Chaves & both Yates can "hold on" with GT TTTs and, if in good shape, even pull the odd turn. Any TT beyond a 1-2km prologue and Ewan "doesn't want to know about it"; its one thing to carry a GC man who may not be strong in TT but there's a limitation as to how many you can afford "carry" in a now 8 man team (given you may also have a specialist climbing support) without haremorraging minutes.
As it is, am not sold on Ewan to Tour given he'll be up against the big trains (and Orica cannot provide him with one); he has SFA hope of making Paris ..... and he sure as hell can't ride cobbles. Its going to be interesting which, if any, GT they can send him to.
Re: Re:
Ewan will be riding the Giro - He should be the dominant sprinter this week at the Tour of Guangxi.
dirkprovin said:
Ewan will be riding the Giro - He should be the dominant sprinter this week at the Tour of Guangxi.
I suggest Edmondson's season was mismanaged by Orica and he is not the only rider who suffered this fate - He should never have ridden the Giro at the beginning of his second year as a pro - And to make matters worse, he was the second lead out rider for Ewan, and unsurprisingly found it difficult - In fact he probably cost Ewan a stage victory - Kluge should have ridden the Girot - Edmondson wasn't ready for the role and possibly could have ridden the Vuelta - Anyway, I expect in 2018 he will focus on cobbled races ( though I expect he will miss races to ride the Commonwealth Games ), one week stage races and his ITT - Would like him to ride the Vuelta in 2018.
Caleb Ewan will not ride the TDF. Also, with the number of classics style stages (flat and hilly) and the potential for echelons Orica will be going with something like a combination of Durbridge, Bauer/Hayman and Albasini/Impey/Kreuziger while Haig/Verona and Howson would join Nieve as support for Chaves and one of the Yates in the mountains. I suspect Trentin will have support at the Giro and will be joint leader with Durbridge in the classics.
If Orica are smart Edmondson will only ride the classics, some 1 week stage races and the Vuelta.
If Orica are smart Edmondson will only ride the classics, some 1 week stage races and the Vuelta.
Re:
1. Agree re Edmondson schedule.
2. Concur re Ewan; no way he will ride TDF
3. Disagree with your proposition of Chaves + 1 Yates riding TDF. One of the major Orica mistakes of 2017 was that of "overloading" the GC riders and the "B options" proving to be more excess baggage than any positive use. The reduction in team sizes just brings this into greater focus. They need to select their "man" for that race and live with that decision. The one bit of leeway I would grant is that of Haig riding as a semi B option/last man at one of the GTs.
4. As to who rides which GT; lets just wait until we have the routes for the Giro & Vuelta as well.
With 20/20 hindsight; yes, Edmondson's first half of the season was overloaded. As for the Giro; arguably the selector's hands were forced somewhat by Cort's crash and injury and Kluge falling ill some weeks out. Can't help feeling that Kluge has not gelled well with this team and that may have been a factor.
42x16ss said:
1. Agree re Edmondson schedule.
2. Concur re Ewan; no way he will ride TDF
3. Disagree with your proposition of Chaves + 1 Yates riding TDF. One of the major Orica mistakes of 2017 was that of "overloading" the GC riders and the "B options" proving to be more excess baggage than any positive use. The reduction in team sizes just brings this into greater focus. They need to select their "man" for that race and live with that decision. The one bit of leeway I would grant is that of Haig riding as a semi B option/last man at one of the GTs.
4. As to who rides which GT; lets just wait until we have the routes for the Giro & Vuelta as well.
yaco said:
With 20/20 hindsight; yes, Edmondson's first half of the season was overloaded. As for the Giro; arguably the selector's hands were forced somewhat by Cort's crash and injury and Kluge falling ill some weeks out. Can't help feeling that Kluge has not gelled well with this team and that may have been a factor.
Re:
I don't think Trentin want to ride the Giro, last year he said he was very fatigued after the Giro and then he didn't ride until august. Peaking for the classics in march/april and ride the Giro seems very hard looking at the very little number of riders that chose such a schedule.42x16ss said:
Just in regards to Chaves and the TDF I would not like for him to ride it just because there would be too much potential for him to crash in the opening week (or lose time as well if he's riding for GC). I'd prefer for him to ride the Giro/Vuelta, at the Giro he might have less competition (though I'm unsure as to his timeframe for recovery and whether he'll have enough training to challenge for GC there).
With regards to Ewan I see your points but I think out of all the GT's next year it's the most likely one he will ride as ORS have better GC chances at the Giro and Vuelta.
With regards to Ewan I see your points but I think out of all the GT's next year it's the most likely one he will ride as ORS have better GC chances at the Giro and Vuelta.
Re:
Re Chaves & TDF; do agree that the cobbles would be the significant risk factor. On the other hand, he is actually quite a solid bike handler and whilst Strade Bianchi isn't PR; in his one outing there he was far from disgraced. Again, lets see what the Giro & Vuelta have in store before locking people in !
The cold hard fact is that the reduced team sizes now make Ewan even more of a "non starter" for ANY GT in 2018 where Orica is seriously pursuing GC. Whilst there is an outside chance that he MAY pick up a stage win at a GT where the sprint field is less than full strength; that win will most likely be contingent on specialised support. And that specialised support will at least in part be at the expense of the team's prime objective. Add to the fact that in all other senses, he is just excess baggage .... his case for selection is by no means a sure thing.
greenedge said:
Re Chaves & TDF; do agree that the cobbles would be the significant risk factor. On the other hand, he is actually quite a solid bike handler and whilst Strade Bianchi isn't PR; in his one outing there he was far from disgraced. Again, lets see what the Giro & Vuelta have in store before locking people in !
The cold hard fact is that the reduced team sizes now make Ewan even more of a "non starter" for ANY GT in 2018 where Orica is seriously pursuing GC. Whilst there is an outside chance that he MAY pick up a stage win at a GT where the sprint field is less than full strength; that win will most likely be contingent on specialised support. And that specialised support will at least in part be at the expense of the team's prime objective. Add to the fact that in all other senses, he is just excess baggage .... his case for selection is by no means a sure thing.
Ewan will ride a GT that is non-negotiable and it's 99 % certain to be the Giro - Have no idea what happened to him at the Tour of Guangxi - A million miles away in stage 1 and Cort did the final in stage 2 - Strange considering he was in good form at the TOB - Then again, Orica chose not to race him at the one day races in late September and early September.
Chaves - My understanding is he doubts he can beat Froome so wants to avoid him if possible.
Chaves - My understanding is he doubts he can beat Froome so wants to avoid him if possible.
Re:
IF Orica (or whatever they're named in 2018) are so mind-blowingly dense to select Ewan for any 2018 GT; then they deserve whatever comes their way as a result !! My cold blooded view for next season is that he and his boof headed manager should be told very explicitly (and in words of one syllable where possible to ensure it doesn't overload Mr Bakker's miniscule intellect) that (1) he will NOT be offered a new contract (2) he will not be selected for any GTs due to his incompatable skills-set and (3) should Mr Bakker find another team willing to buy out the remainder of his contract they would "rubber stamp"/facilitate his early release.
With that in mind, they underatake to prioritise him at early season races like TDU & Abu Dhabi in order to "fatten him up" with WT points to attract potential buyers. Whilst this may not sound gentlemanly to some of you, maybe it isn't but this is professional sport and sometimes hard brutal decisions need to be made. Orica made sufficient strategic/tactical balls-ups in 2017; should they continue to do so/repeat them in 2018 then frankly some major heads need to roll and Gerry Ryan needs to strongly reconsider his further investment/the team's survival.
Froome is going to the primary hurdle for Chaves or any other GC rival at whatever GT they may both line up in. From Chaves perspective, the 2018 TDF does have the significant risk factor of cobbles early on but the TT quotient isn't too bad with the TTT (which in form, he can survive reasonably well) and the ITT not being overly long and having some significant uphill. It may well be that the Giro has a heavier TT factor; ditto Vuelta. Again, lets wait
yaco said:
IF Orica (or whatever they're named in 2018) are so mind-blowingly dense to select Ewan for any 2018 GT; then they deserve whatever comes their way as a result !! My cold blooded view for next season is that he and his boof headed manager should be told very explicitly (and in words of one syllable where possible to ensure it doesn't overload Mr Bakker's miniscule intellect) that (1) he will NOT be offered a new contract (2) he will not be selected for any GTs due to his incompatable skills-set and (3) should Mr Bakker find another team willing to buy out the remainder of his contract they would "rubber stamp"/facilitate his early release.
With that in mind, they underatake to prioritise him at early season races like TDU & Abu Dhabi in order to "fatten him up" with WT points to attract potential buyers. Whilst this may not sound gentlemanly to some of you, maybe it isn't but this is professional sport and sometimes hard brutal decisions need to be made. Orica made sufficient strategic/tactical balls-ups in 2017; should they continue to do so/repeat them in 2018 then frankly some major heads need to roll and Gerry Ryan needs to strongly reconsider his further investment/the team's survival.
Froome is going to the primary hurdle for Chaves or any other GC rival at whatever GT they may both line up in. From Chaves perspective, the 2018 TDF does have the significant risk factor of cobbles early on but the TT quotient isn't too bad with the TTT (which in form, he can survive reasonably well) and the ITT not being overly long and having some significant uphill. It may well be that the Giro has a heavier TT factor; ditto Vuelta. Again, lets wait
Re: Re:
As long as there are sprint stages in the Giro why wouldn't Ewan be selected ? His inclusion won't cost them a podium and might grab them a few stage wins. Presumably he was signed for his sprinting not to be a great GT domestique.
dirkprovin said:
As long as there are sprint stages in the Giro why wouldn't Ewan be selected ? His inclusion won't cost them a podium and might grab them a few stage wins. Presumably he was signed for his sprinting not to be a great GT domestique.
Re: Re:
Because .... for those wins to come about at GT level, he requires support, and specialised support at that not just a couple of big engine grunts re-assigned. Even at the Giro, most bunch kicks involve more than a little "argy bargy" .... and when that happens, Ewan tends to drop his man's wheel and get washed away. Do I think he's anywhere near the class of Gaviria ?? No; but if he were at a team where sprint wins WERE the team's meal-ticket and thus, he = the main man, he would be able to compete far better than what he will in a GC focused Orica line-up.
He was signed by Orica due to his advance publicity .... and at the time, it was at least a defensible signing as none of the GC men had made their GT mark and Orica was still stage win oriented. That team is no longer and whilst classics based quick men can/will be signed and find their ways into GT line-ups; it will be due to their versatility. Ewan, regrettably, is a one trick pony who is unfortunate in that his optimal racing format is criterium racing and there is very little of that commodity at WT level.
movingtarget said:
Because .... for those wins to come about at GT level, he requires support, and specialised support at that not just a couple of big engine grunts re-assigned. Even at the Giro, most bunch kicks involve more than a little "argy bargy" .... and when that happens, Ewan tends to drop his man's wheel and get washed away. Do I think he's anywhere near the class of Gaviria ?? No; but if he were at a team where sprint wins WERE the team's meal-ticket and thus, he = the main man, he would be able to compete far better than what he will in a GC focused Orica line-up.
He was signed by Orica due to his advance publicity .... and at the time, it was at least a defensible signing as none of the GC men had made their GT mark and Orica was still stage win oriented. That team is no longer and whilst classics based quick men can/will be signed and find their ways into GT line-ups; it will be due to their versatility. Ewan, regrettably, is a one trick pony who is unfortunate in that his optimal racing format is criterium racing and there is very little of that commodity at WT level.
Reading between the lines, i suggestDP has a lower opinion of Jason Bakker, rather than Ewan. Think Bakker is the new Paul Connors.
Will add that Chaves is a class below Quintano on cobbles Chaves to cobbles is like Bardet to the ITT.
Re:
The Chaves TT is also a level below Quintana's. Actually if a GT ever came down to Bardet and Chaves in a TT it would probably be very close. Quintana has obviously improved his TT. He isn't too bad at all it's just that Froome and Dumoulin are two levels above him.
yaco said:
The Chaves TT is also a level below Quintana's. Actually if a GT ever came down to Bardet and Chaves in a TT it would probably be very close. Quintana has obviously improved his TT. He isn't too bad at all it's just that Froome and Dumoulin are two levels above him.
Re: Re:
If they knew they were heading in that direction why not just sign him for one year ? Anyway it sounds like this should be his last season with Orica. Lotto are probably a team that would take Ewan with the way Greipel was sprinting this season.
dirkprovin said:
If they knew they were heading in that direction why not just sign him for one year ? Anyway it sounds like this should be his last season with Orica. Lotto are probably a team that would take Ewan with the way Greipel was sprinting this season.
Re: Re:
When he was originally signed in 2014, they really would not have known that their hoped for GC evolution would've hit fast forward over the next 2 years. However, by his re-signing in 2016, the portents were pretty clear as regards Chaves & AY. This annoucement was one of the earliest in that particular "contract season" and perhaps both parties erred in that regard. Team Ewan in NOT realising the ramifications of these GC results/not shopping around & Orica hierarchy in still thinking they could have an "each way bet" and that the team reductions would be put off for at least another year.
In a previous post, you postulated that his inclusion would not cost them a podium. Probably not but the expenditure of resources in pursuit of his goals does come back to hit you hard later in the race. Case in point, this year's Giro where Mr White had his flat land engines labouring nobly at the front of the peleton on almost all of the flat stages. His 1 from 8 strike rate wasn't exactly a superb return on investment but the wider picture was that these guys were completely spent by halfway through the GT. Not only a complete lack of tactical savvy on his part in NOT calling other team's bluff but also shocking management of resources.
movingtarget said:
When he was originally signed in 2014, they really would not have known that their hoped for GC evolution would've hit fast forward over the next 2 years. However, by his re-signing in 2016, the portents were pretty clear as regards Chaves & AY. This annoucement was one of the earliest in that particular "contract season" and perhaps both parties erred in that regard. Team Ewan in NOT realising the ramifications of these GC results/not shopping around & Orica hierarchy in still thinking they could have an "each way bet" and that the team reductions would be put off for at least another year.
In a previous post, you postulated that his inclusion would not cost them a podium. Probably not but the expenditure of resources in pursuit of his goals does come back to hit you hard later in the race. Case in point, this year's Giro where Mr White had his flat land engines labouring nobly at the front of the peleton on almost all of the flat stages. His 1 from 8 strike rate wasn't exactly a superb return on investment but the wider picture was that these guys were completely spent by halfway through the GT. Not only a complete lack of tactical savvy on his part in NOT calling other team's bluff but also shocking management of resources.
Re: Re:
Yes plus the fact that Gaviria was winning some of those Giro sprints on one leg. It was obvious who the better sprinter was at that time. Ewan is still learning but his exceptionally small stature for a sprinter meant he was getting bossed about in some of the bunch sprints and bouncing off other riders and losing his position. He doesn't have the strength or bike handling ability of someone like Robbie McEwen who never needed a train to win just one pilot was usually enough. I still think Ewan could do well on another team as he matures physically and becomes more experienced. In the lower pressure races like the TDU the gaps open up in the smaller fields and he gets his chances but the GT sprints are much more physical and crowded.
dirkprovin said:
Yes plus the fact that Gaviria was winning some of those Giro sprints on one leg. It was obvious who the better sprinter was at that time. Ewan is still learning but his exceptionally small stature for a sprinter meant he was getting bossed about in some of the bunch sprints and bouncing off other riders and losing his position. He doesn't have the strength or bike handling ability of someone like Robbie McEwen who never needed a train to win just one pilot was usually enough. I still think Ewan could do well on another team as he matures physically and becomes more experienced. In the lower pressure races like the TDU the gaps open up in the smaller fields and he gets his chances but the GT sprints are much more physical and crowded.
Re: Re:
He lacks the size, the bike handling skills and the daring of McEwen. Other sprinters who similarly flinch from the argy bargy will look to find other opportunities for victories be they one day classics or on terrain that shells the pure bunch kick men but Ewan lacks that level of versatility. Hamburg is probably the only WT one dayer that's realisitically in his usual range but there he comes up against a bunch kick more often than not. He made it to the finish of 2017 MSR but the odds of the Cippresa & Poggio being soft pedalled again in the next few years aren't that great. At early season races such as TDU & ADT, he can get away with losing his mans wheel and still win due to being in better condition than his competition but come peak season, his scope for wins are almost exclusively at 2nd tier races.
I DO fully agree that a team that can/will provide him with a "train" certainly will improve his odds in GT finishes and LS does appear to be a peak candidate. However, I would see Giro as his best opening as Vuelta usually provides relatively few sprint opportunities and the pressure of TDF is another level above that of Giro. Given his debateable survivability, I'm not really banking on seeing him sprint it out on the Champs Elysses anytime soon.
movingtarget said:
He lacks the size, the bike handling skills and the daring of McEwen. Other sprinters who similarly flinch from the argy bargy will look to find other opportunities for victories be they one day classics or on terrain that shells the pure bunch kick men but Ewan lacks that level of versatility. Hamburg is probably the only WT one dayer that's realisitically in his usual range but there he comes up against a bunch kick more often than not. He made it to the finish of 2017 MSR but the odds of the Cippresa & Poggio being soft pedalled again in the next few years aren't that great. At early season races such as TDU & ADT, he can get away with losing his mans wheel and still win due to being in better condition than his competition but come peak season, his scope for wins are almost exclusively at 2nd tier races.
I DO fully agree that a team that can/will provide him with a "train" certainly will improve his odds in GT finishes and LS does appear to be a peak candidate. However, I would see Giro as his best opening as Vuelta usually provides relatively few sprint opportunities and the pressure of TDF is another level above that of Giro. Given his debateable survivability, I'm not really banking on seeing him sprint it out on the Champs Elysses anytime soon.
It's actually interesting that Cort is doing the final this week,even though he is leaving the team.
Re:
He clearly has the better form .... and its not obligatory for riders and their soon to be former teams to part on ill terms. You never know how things may play out in future ....
yaco said:
He clearly has the better form .... and its not obligatory for riders and their soon to be former teams to part on ill terms. You never know how things may play out in future ....
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