Green Jersey: Place you bets

[Mambo95]

It's been the biggest fight of the first week. So where does it end up in Paris?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cav looks a decent bet to pick up at least 10x10 from intermediate sprints, and there are 3.5 sprint stages left where he should pick up at least 120 points.

I can't see anyone else who's going to be able to get to 370+

 

[Ragerod]

Cavendish is still favourite. Rojas and Gilbert need to find at least 100 points in the hilly stages to beat Cav and that's too much. Providing nothing unexpected happens.

 

[luckyboy]

Want it to be Gilbert because I like him. Don't mind if it's Cavendish because of my CQ team.

It will be Cavendish.

 

[badboyberty]

Watching Evans sprint in Stage 6 and I've got this weird suspicion that he's done the maths on the new system and thinks he's got a shot.

Hence I'm voting for him even though I want R Feillu to win, and know that it will most likely go to Chavendish.

 

[luckyboy]

What do people think of the new system so far then? Without the 3 hilly finishes (or with less of them) I think Cav would have a pretty clear advantage.

Pretty interesting fact that Hushovd has finished in the top 10 on every stage so far and is still 20 points behind Cavendish in the points classement. The new intermediate sprints system definitely seem to have given Cav a boost anyway.

 

[dabaideschbi]

Royas is annoying, he never wins

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Royas is annoying, he never wins

But it's not for want of trying. He knows he's not the best sprinter in the race but he's always there, contesting every bunch finish. You've got to admire his persistence.

 

[klmorgan]

Watching Evans sprint in Stage 6 and I've got this weird suspicion that he's done the maths on the new system and thinks he's got a shot.

Hence I'm voting for him even though I want R Feillu to win, and know that it will most likely go to Chavendish.

+1

While he would be keeping at the front to keep out trouble, unlike some other GC contenders, why put in the effort in some of the sprints that he has been doing otherwise.

 

[dlwssonic]

i just voted evans for fun. he has been getting quite a few top15s. he might use it as a back up plan. he can get loads of points in the mountains and hilly stages. but i dont think he will get it . maybe rojas, gilbert or cav

 

[auscyclefan94]

For JJ Rojas to win, he's going to need to score on these stages...

Stage 9:

He's going to need some good legs to make it but why not pick up some points at the sprint point. The finish might be a tad hard for him.

Stage 10:

Rojas will contest the finish, Cav won't.

Stage 13:

Don't rule JJ Rojas out getting some points and if it isn't ridden very hard possibly the finish.


He has a chance. Don't rule JJ out of it.

 

[greenedge]

Cav definetly. HTC are so commited and Cav will try intermediates.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

For JJ Rojas to win, he's going to need to score on these stages...

him.

Stage 10:

Rojas will contest the finish, Cav won't.

Go and actually look at the climb details. If Cav wants to be there, and the team is supporting him, he absolutely will contest that finish. The only reason he won't is Matt Goss wanting to support to get some more 2nd places.

 

[Midnightfright]

Can't see past Cav really hope JJ can atleast make it close

 

[luckyboy]

Today's stage..

Gilbert - 31 points
Rojas - 5 points
Cavendish - 3 points

Overall..

Gilbert - 187 points
Rojas - 172 points
Cavendish - 153 points


Tomorrow Gilbert will get more points at the intermediate sprint considering the profile of the stage. Also the finale is 1.6km at 6.1%..

Another 30-40 for him tomorrow.

 

[roundabout]

He'll get some points, but the break will probably make it to the end again.

What Gilbert needs is for Lotto to order Greipel to work for him in the finishes.

But ok, it's a long way to go. 2 days ago I thought Rojas had a very good chance, yesterday Cavendish after gaining back 30 points in a day and today it's Gilbert's turn.

 

[luckyboy]

Over the rest of the Tour we will see how the intermediate sprints have skewed the favour towards Cav. If it was the old system, Gilbert would have more of a chance.

I think the only way he can get the green jersey is if he goes in a break on a mountain stage.

 

[William H]

Over the rest of the Tour we will see how the intermediate sprints have skewed the favour towards Cav. If it was the old system, Gilbert would have more of a chance.

Intermediate sprints won't help Cav much. Only 4 people will contest them now that everyone else is out of the Green jersey hunt, so Cav only gains 1-3 points on Gilbert when he's able to contest them. While Gilbert can gain considerably more than that on any sprints which he makes and Cav misses.

 

[El Pistolero]

I hope Gilbert wins it, he's really fighting for it in every single stage. He's the only guy in this Tour who has never lost time in an individual stage so far compared to the favorites

 

[goggalor]

After his performance today I almost wish I could change my vote to Gilbert. He even beat Rojas in the intermediate sprint. It's very hard to call who'll take the jersey since we don't have profiles for the last km of the sprints. Today people thought Cav had the advantage, but the sprint was so tough he couldn't hold Renshaw's wheel.

Rojas has an advantage over Gilbert in that he doesn't have to work for anyone else. Today Gilbert had to bring VDB to the front in the final climb and yesterday he pulled for Greipel before the sprint.

 

[roundabout]

There are profiles for the intermediate sprints. Sprint tab.

Like one today.

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/800/PROFILSPRINT.gif

 

[goggalor]

There are profiles for the intermediate sprints. Sprint tab.

Like one today.

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/800/PROFILSPRINT.gif

Oh. Thanks!

 

[roundabout]

Come to think of it that's the profile for tomorrow.

Here's today's one.

http://inrng.com/medias/TdF/TDF11_ET08_PS.jpg

 

[Bumeington]

I hope Gilbert wins it, he's really fighting for it in every single stage. He's the only guy in this Tour who has never lost time in an individual stage so far compared to the favorites

Thor Hushovd.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Thor lost a few seconds on the 1st stage.