How are the others going to beat Froome?

May 13, 2015
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Is the question that needs to be asked. After the first hectic week, Froome is in the perfect position and in yellow. And from what we've seen so far, he looks like he is the strongest climber in the race.

Should the other favorites attack from very early out, on the penultimate climb, at the bottom of last climb or risk everything downhill in the coming mountain stages? Or should they simply "just" follow his wheel and see if they can beat him in the final.

And who will have the best chance to match him?
 
Simples, follow him uphill and then attack in the final 1km.
Attack on the descents.
And if all else fails, go for a long one.
I see that many people already see the Tour as in the bag for Froome... I don't think it is over by a long shot... and all those people who are expecting Froome to win Tuesday's stage by at least 30s, I do believe the same thing was predicted before the Farrapona stage in last year's Vuelta.
 
By dropping him in the mountains in the 3rd week.
Like this
Alpe d'Huez 2013:
4. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander MOV 02'12" 25
5. ESP RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim KAT 02'15" 15
6. AUS PORTE Richie SKY 03'18" 10
7. GBR FROOME Chris SKY 03'18" 5

Annecy/Semnoz 2013:
1. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander MOV 3h39'04" 80
2. ESP RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim KAT 18" 50
3. GBR FROOME Chris SKY 29" 35

And before skyfans come crawling in with Quintana losing time on Ventoux etc: remember, he was still 2nd man for Valverde back then and attacked way before Froome did and already spent much more energy.
 
May 13, 2015
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mrhender said:
Rain dancing ?
Yep. Rain is something they have to hope for. While he is still strong in the rain, it slows him down by 10%.

And when it's raining, I've noticed that he is not looking at his steam.
 
Aug 4, 2010
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LaFlorecita said:
Simples, follow him uphill and then attack in the final 1km.
Attack on the descents.
And if all else fails, go for a long one.
I see that many people already see the Tour as in the bag for Froome... I don't think it is over by a long shot... and all those people who are expecting Froome to win Tuesday's stage by at least 30s, I do believe the same thing was predicted before the Farrapona stage in last year's Vuelta.
really? :eek:
 
May 13, 2015
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
By dropping him in the mountains in the 3rd week.
Like this
Alpe d'Huez 2013:
4. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander MOV 02'12" 25
5. ESP RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim KAT 02'15" 15
6. AUS PORTE Richie SKY 03'18" 10
7. GBR FROOME Chris SKY 03'18" 5

Annecy/Semnoz 2013:
1. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander MOV 3h39'04" 80
2. ESP RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim KAT 18" 50
3. GBR FROOME Chris SKY 29" 35

And before skyfans come crawling in with Quintana losing time on Ventoux etc: remember, he was still 2nd man for Valverde back then and attacked way before Froome did and already spent much more energy.
At that point, he knew he would win the race. His victory was never in danger.

I was thinking more on unconventional methods. Sabotaging the Sky train's rhythm could be an option if possible. Groups of 40 or something attacking early out with several key lieutenants in them (Fuglsang, Majka, even Valverde) with riders already in the low end of the GC (Bardet, Peraud, Pinot). They have to try something crazy if they want to win it.
 
May 13, 2015
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hrotha said:
We know zilch about how everyone is going to go on the real mountains.
Nibali getting dropped on a 1k climb by riders like Jungles, Simon and Martens is pretty telling.
 
Re:

Dekker_Tifosi said:
By dropping him in the mountains in the 3rd week.
Like this
Alpe d'Huez 2013:
4. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander MOV 02'12" 25
5. ESP RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim KAT 02'15" 15
6. AUS PORTE Richie SKY 03'18" 10
7. GBR FROOME Chris SKY 03'18" 5

Annecy/Semnoz 2013:
1. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander MOV 3h39'04" 80
2. ESP RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim KAT 18" 50
3. GBR FROOME Chris SKY 29" 35

And before skyfans come crawling in with Quintana losing time on Ventoux etc: remember, he was still 2nd man for Valverde back then and attacked way before Froome did and already spent much more energy.
I will give you Alpe, he had a terrible day. However Semnoz he put in a dig then just rode tempo, he didn't care as the race was won. He wasn't going to lose 5 minutes in the final 1km.
 
Sep 2, 2010
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WheelofGear said:
hrotha said:
We know zilch about how everyone is going to go on the real mountains.
Nibali getting dropped on a 1k climb by riders like Jungles, Simon and Martens is pretty telling.
He did crash pretty hard a few days beforehand. It is possible that it had a big impact that day. Plus, it's not like Nibs didn't lead Astana all the way up the final climb in the TTT
 
May 13, 2015
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Eshnar said:
WheelofGear said:
hrotha said:
We know zilch about how everyone is going to go on the real mountains.
Nibali getting dropped on a 1k climb by riders like Jungles, Simon and Martens is pretty telling.
Just as telling as AC being dropped by same Nibali on Huy.
At least there is some logic behind this. He tried to follow the acceleration of Froome/Rodriguez, but wasn't able to it, so he blew up.

Nibali doesn't have the same excuse.
 
Based on what we think current form is:

The only way to beat him is if the other favourites launch attack after attack and one gets away when Froome and the others are cooked. This would require all the other favourites to risk losing their chance at the top 5 just so one of them can take the win, so I doubt it'll ever happen.

Of course, we don't really know their form until after a couple of big mountain stages at least. It's a 3 week race, we could be really surprised...
 
Aug 24, 2009
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Nibali did lose 10 seconds on that stage, but that still doesn't necessarily mean TdF is over for him. I mean, obviously, that AND the gap he has makes it really hard, but what I'm trying to say, he isn't necessarily in bad form. I believe he will still be a factor, and he will attack. Which is more likely to open a chance for Contador and Quintana than work for Nibali himself..
Also, they would be fools to disregard Tejay. I know it's not really good comparison, but Purito and co. ignored Hesjedal on the Giro and then he won. I don't think Tejay can win, but he's up there, without really losing much energy.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
And before skyfans come crawling in with Quintana losing time on Ventoux etc: remember, he was still 2nd man for Valverde back then and attacked way before Froome did and already spent much more energy.
No he wasn't. He was second man only in the stage to Ax-3 Domaines, where he attacked in Palhiéres. In Ventoux he was the team leader already, since Valverde lost 9 minutes two days before.
 
They shouldn't go long on the climbs already. Sky is too strong and it will be a waste of energy. Quintana needs to put him under pressure but not risk everything yet and try to crack him in the third week. Nibali needs to try something downhill though.
 
Aug 31, 2012
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The most likely cause of Froome not winning the Tour is a crash or some other sort of misfortune. Depending on how the others climb relative to Froome, which we'll learn soon, their optimal play is to make the Tour as risky as possible. Alliances would be ideal if the only objective was to make Froome lose the Tour, but that isn't the case, so they are unlikely.
 
Jul 7, 2012
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I see the usual Froome/sky haters are fantasizing once again about a latino pact where Nibali , Contador, Purito and Valverde combine forces to act as super domestiques to soften up the skytrain so Quintana can apply the coup de grace and take a glorious GC win at the top of alp duez!! Great stuff guys!!!
 

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