How many Tours will Pogacar win?

How many times will Pogacar win the Tour de France?

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Pantani_lives

Pantani_lives

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How many times will Pogacar end up winning the Tour de France?

Cycling superstition says he'll remain stuck at five. When someone tries to win a sixth Tour, something always goes awry. It's hubris, like Prometheus stealing fire from the gods.

If he could somehow break the curse and win a sixth one, it would be a strong argument to call him the GOAT. And it doesn't have to end there. He's young enough to win nine Tours before his thirty-second birthday.

So what do you think? It will be interesting to read your arguments.
 
10.

He's 27. He's living the best life and has a massive lead over his rivals. I can see him reaching 32 and still winning these things. Van der Poel FYI is 31 and still going so I don't see why people imagine Pog will suddenly decline - or decide to just benevolently hand over the Tour to someone else whilst he's still winning it routinely.
 
Depends on what he wants to do after next year. If he stays upright difficult to see a challenge for him next year. Afterwards depends what he will do in 2028 if he targets the Olympics whether he thinks the Tour is best prep. By 2029 who knows what he will want to do, target other races, someone else likely will have developed to challenge. I struggle to see him riding into his mid-thirties. I therefore think 6-7 is the likely end number. His contract is to 2030, he will be 32. He may call time then. Who knows
 
He is the favourite in any tour he rocks up to thr next 5 years. If he wanted to he could also be a challenger any time in the next decade. Considering accidents injuries other motivations and father time, 7 tours feels almost unavoidable, 8 about par and 10 a very distant but not completely unimaginable ceiling.
 
I think he'll ride until 2028 due to the olympics for sure. That would get him to 7. But at that point I think he'll want to get ahead of Armstrongs 7, regardless of that record not being official. And depending on what other GTs he rides until then he might also have the incentive to break the overall GT victory record that year. I think after that he'll grow tired of it and retire. The dedication needed to be as dominant as he is will take a toll on anyone and once you run out of goals it's hard to keep it going.
 
It will depends on luck (accidents) and will.
Tadej has been quite lucky in avoiding serious incidents over the years (unlike Evanepoel or Vingegaard) but that may change any day.

The rest will depend on his will. Assuming he keeps avoiding incidents and he remain committed to win, he definitely will win the next 2. Seixas seems very promising, but to beat today's Pogacar level in a GT it would require him to reach full maturity. Evanepoel has untapped potential, but I don't see him beating Pogacar at his peak in a GT.

Obviously I can see them beat Tadej fair and square in the future in a one-day race, but a GT is a different story
 
I think if he wins next year, in 2028 he’ll do the Giro-Olympics-Vuelta, just like Nibali. And once they left the Tour, it’s hard to come back.

The Tour have a very toxic environment; all the dominant riders ended up fed up with the race, especially the non-French ones.
With Seixas’s rise, the atmosphere is only going to get worse. It wasn't quite as bad this year because Seixas was nowhere near being a contender, but the booing was louder, night-test, toxic-media... It’s becoming increasingly toxic.

In cycling, it’s hard to look too far ahead; an accident can change everything. It’s a sport where momentum matters a great deal, so I have my doubts about him returning in 2029, though he might give it a try.
 
There should be also option "four Tours". Knowing Pogi he will do something stupid today (like he did last year but there was neutralization then so even with a broken collarbone he may have been able to reach the finish somehow).
 
Krzysztof_O said:
There should be also option "four Tours". Knowing Pogi he will do something stupid today (like he did last year but there was neutralization then so even with a broken collarbone he may have been able to reach the finish).
Click to expand...
Today, times are also neutralized. If he has an accident, simply crossing the finish line would suffice.
 
Coppi-Bartali said:
Today, times are also neutralized. If he has an accident, simply crossing the finish line would suffice.
Click to expand...

Within the time limit, which would be small due to the stage length (but I guess the organizers would make an exception allowing the race winner to finish later).
 
Krzysztof_O said:
Within the time limit, which would be small due to the stage length (but I guess the organizers would make an exception allowing the race winner to finish later).
Click to expand...

I understand that if times don't count, there is no time limit. It's a neutralized stage.

Imagine having to finish the stage covered in blood, racing at 5 km/h.
4 a.m. podium ceremony.
 
I think he may stop at the first sign of decline or if the competition tightens, but we don't really know. It's a GOAT thing to do to go out on top and leave them wanting more. So I think 7 or 8.
 
"Only" six. Will win next year and skip in 2028 because of the Olympics. After that he'll either retire, skip TdF again, get busted or something else.

So he'll probably win 12 and my post will look very dumb in the future.
 
Potomac said:
This is is final one.
Sexais is taking over from 2027.
Click to expand...
Not sure about that. He'd have to improve A LOT in a year and he's already very close to his peak I think, he's very optimised and has little room to improve
 
Coppi-Bartali said:
I think if he wins next year, in 2028 he’ll do the Giro-Olympics-Vuelta, just like Nibali. And once they left the Tour, it’s hard to come back.

The Tour have a very toxic environment; all the dominant riders ended up fed up with the race, especially the non-French ones.
With Seixas’s rise, the atmosphere is only going to get worse. It wasn't quite as bad this year because Seixas was nowhere near being a contender, but the booing was louder, night-test, toxic-media... It’s becoming increasingly toxic.

In cycling, it’s hard to look too far ahead; an accident can change everything. It’s a sport where momentum matters a great deal, so I have my doubts about him returning in 2029, though he might give it a try.
Click to expand...
Nibali did Giro-Tour
 
I think he will win six.
He will win next season.
The season after, due to a slight decline and big improvement from sexy, it will go down to the wire, nip and tuck, but sexy will win the tour of 28.
That’s how I see it
You heard it here First Ladies and gentlemen
 
8 sounds about right but he will also need luck. Pogacar has just won his fifth Tour at age 27. Assuming he doesn't lose one e.g. crash, by 8 he would be 30 and still right at the peak age for a road cyclist. The limitation is likely his motivation or else a possible crash. Life isn't easy as a pro cyclist and he has a fiancé.
 
6, and after that Del Toro takes over as the Tour leader for UAE.

I think Pogacar himself is pushing his young protege to step into that role, so that he himself would be released from that duty.
 
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