If you were Schleck, what would you do to win this TdF?

[Benotti69]

Come all you armchair know it alls, not many chances left what's he gonna have to do get the jersey and time on AC before the final TT considering AC is a better TTer than AS...

 

[lstomsl]

Drink jack daniels wth my embedded twin on the way to pick up medicine for my dog at my mother-in-laws gynecologist in spain

 

[Benotti69]

Drink jack daniels wth my embedded twin on the way to pick up medicine for my dog at my mother-in-laws gynecologist in spain

i am hoping some of the tactical genii on here would put in their 2 cents worth and not a clinic answer either...

 

[SpartacusRox]

You really don't need to be a tactical genius, he only has one more genuine chance and thats on S17. To win he would need to attack and beat AC by at least 1.30 minutes. He will attack on the Tourmalet. what other option does he have? None in my opinion unless AC cracks and Lance has more chance of winning than that happening.

Saxo may try to put some pressure on tomorrow on the early climbs but with a long downhill finish I can't see any change in the GC.

 

[brianf7]

I dont know what but I do know that Saxo will try something even if it is the last flat stage before the TT.
Expect fireworks any time that is what makes it fun to watch and what keeps me up untill 2.am every morning.

 

[Benotti69]

You really don't need to be a tactical genius, he only has one more genuine chance and thats on S17. To win he would need to attack and beat AC by at least 1.30 minutes. He will attack on the Tourmalet. what other option does he have? None in my opinion unless AC cracks and Lance has more chance of winning than that happening.

Saxo may try to put some pressure on tomorrow on the early climbs but with a long downhill finish I can't see any change in the GC.

Today's is a mountain stage as well as S17. I was hoping to have a more concise thought out answer as to which col he should attack and why or have his team do nothing and then on the 3rd climb with whatever Saxos are left blow everyone out the back and let Schleck attack....etc...

I think AC will expect the Tourmalet attack and be prepared. He should try something not expected.

 

[balkou]

Improve my TT skills?

 

[Cerberus]

Today's is a mountain stage as well as S17. I was hoping to have a more concise thought out answer as to which col he should attack and why or have his team do nothing and then on the 3rd climb with whatever Saxos are left blow everyone out the back and let Schleck attack....etc...

I think AC will expect the Tourmalet attack and be prepared. He should try something not expected.

The problem is that most things that are "unexpected" are unexpected because they're very, very unlikely to work. Everybody expects an attack on the final mountain, but still only a few can follow the favourites. Andy Schleck can drop Contador on Tourmalet on stage 17 even if Contador expects it, if he is stronger. Doing something unexpected like attacking on Tourmalet today would be quite unexpected, but even if Schleck much is stronger, Contador and his very strong team would most likely be able to real him in on the 130 K there is from the top of the Tourmalet to the finish line.

The "predictable" strategies are predictable by virtue of being the smart strategies. I'm not going to say that it's always stupid to do an unconventional strategy, but it very often is. Attack from very far out (being the most typical non-conventional strategy) generally only works if you're not considered a real threat in the GC and it helps a lot if your opponents team is weak. Neither of these circumstances apply.

ETA: You can also try to split the field, which potentially give a very large gap, but the problem is that it's just so bloody hard to split of a significant part of the field, with enough of the favourites that there aren't enough people wanting to work in the second group, but not including Contador. Generally happens with side-wind, but again forcing the pace with side-wind is hardly an unconventional tactic. Something also happened in 1996, but I don't recall the details.

 

[khodder]

Do an Eddy Merckx, attack at the bottom of the Aubisque and drop everyone then ride solo along 50KM of downhill and flat to reclaim the yellow.

But seriously. There is not much at all he can do, the long flat after the last mountain today prevents any huge time gaps between the top contendors. He has to attack and attack and attack on the Tourmalet on stage 17, hope you can get to the summit over 2 minutes ahead of Alberto and look to hold on in the ITT.

That said, I would love to see Saxo try to blow up the peloton on the Tourmalet today, but save CAS for later. Hope to isolate Alberto (unlikely) and then perform the Aubisque attack. But I do not see anything of the sort happening.

 

[Ramira]

The only thing he could do is try and get someone out ahead, sent people like Breschel, O'Grady to force Astana to Counter and then hope he can get Voigt or Cancellara in an escape. Most likely Astana won't let it happen but at least they'll be isolated, if it happens to work out AS could attack on Aubisque with a team mate in front (it's how Cunego won his Giro) but like I said before it's not like Astana would be caught out if some Saxo guys try to escape so it has a very small chance to succeed and if it has a chance they gotta send 4/5 guys in a row to blow them up.

Most likely though Schlek will simply save energy and hope he's good enough on Tourmalet, considering the fact he seems better then last year and Contador is weaker I reckon he believes if he's a minute ahead he has a chance.

 

[Ramira]

Ryder Hesjedal going too, damn I hope this continues this could be an awesome day.

 

[Hmmmmm]

Do an Eddy Merckx, attack at the bottom of the Aubisque and drop everyone then ride solo along 50KM of downhill and flat to reclaim the yellow.

+1

Too bad nobody has close to the guts to even entertain the thought of doing this. I've been looking at the "Eddy Merckx" book by Rick Vanwalleghem. Amazing stuff!

 

[Bordercollie1]

Good thread. I had been wondering the same thing myself.

I can see the Astana team weakening on todays stage as they have done so much work this tour. I would look to team up with one of the Rabobankers going for the podium (Geschink or Menshov) and someone going for a stage (would help if they were French!) and try to distance Contador. The remaining Rabobanker can mark the moves of Contador and Sanchez.

Alternatively Andy can take his chances in the time trial. The time trialling record of the Schlecks is bad, but they have never actually been racing for the overall of the Tour. Given that Schleck has the same power to weight as Contador, but on a taller frame (and they ride identical bikes) it is not impossible that Schleck could upset the form book in the TT.

 

[nia O'Malley]

...............pedal harder..............

 

[Publicus]

I think, barring something happening to AC, he's lost his chance. He made the mistake, in my opinion, of being too confident in the prior stages. Stage 9 is a good example. If he felt strong, then he should have attacked earlier (much earlier) to get real time over AC and others. Instead he sat on. Similarly on Stage 14. Sitting on Contador's wheel got him no time over AC and he lost 14 seconds to Menchov and Sanchez.

In short, he didn't observe the golden rule of the TdF: Take time on your rivals when you can.

 

[Señor_Contador]

In my opinion Andy is now out of the running. His best bet would be to consolidate his position and make sure Menchov and Sanchez do not gain any more time on him. Samuel is clearly working with AC and Menchov is playing the unwanted guest to perfection.

And both TT better than Andy.

 

[simoni]

The only alternative to the all-or-nothing final Tourmalet move is to try and get a couple in the break (Voight and Cancellara would be handy), attack on the Aubisque and try and get bit of a TTT going on the flat to Pau. VERY unlikely to come off - I imagine he'll try and get through today as easily as possible and bank on Thursday.

That said, there is a rest day tomorrow so might be more prepared to have a crack today but I reckon everyone is literally cooked in the hot weather so I think today will turn out to be a quiet day overall.

I think he has missed his chance overall though by not taking his chance when he could. Why not have a proper go on 3-domaines for example? Say what you like about the ethics of Contador yesterday but he took a chance when it fell to him and it might well decide the race.

 

[lstomsl]

Yesterday, after 2 weeks of racing in the heat and at the end of a long climb on a long day, Schleck, mostly by himself, gained 28 seconds in one kilometer on Contador, Sanchez, and Menchov all working together. He lost time on the descent but that is to be expected. In another 1/2 km he would have caught Contador.

When the game is on and everyone is going balls to the wall Schleck showed that he has the ability to drop Contador like a blind roofer. Thursday is going to be interesting....

If he can do it again and keep it up he could potentially gain 10 minutes on Contador....

This ain't over people, it has just begun!

 

[Bruce_Willis_97]

If i were Schleck I would attack and make sure I dont drop my chain when I attacked because I'm the one who launched the attack and if I attacked I should be able to follow thru with my attack that I myself started like in stage 15 for instance but if i get attacked on my failed attack then I should not expect some one to wait for me to fix my gun in a duel!

Get it!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcN2HrkrnF4

 

[Señor_Contador]

[...]I think he has missed his chance overall though by not taking his chance when he could. Why not have a proper go on 3-domaines for example?

Exactly! At Aix 3 he pulled one of the dumbest moves I've seen in recent cycling history: He knew he was running out of real estate and that AC is going to put 2 minutes on him on the TT, so he should've attacked big time.

Something tells me that he's not as well as people think he is.

At the Aix 3 stage, for example, at one point he was going back to the team car, I presume, for advice. I think AS lacks big time on the tactics side.

 

[Archibald]

do a deal with the dynamic duo.
in exchange for towing the old man up the hill to give him the stage and his parting moment in the sun, the two teams effectively become a road block and hold the entire peloton up while they make their getaway...

 

[mr. tibbs]

The problem is that most things that are "unexpected" are unexpected because they're very, very unlikely to work. Everybody expects an attack on the final mountain, but still only a few can follow the favourites. Andy Schleck can drop Contador on Tourmalet on stage 17 even if Contador expects it, if he is stronger. Doing something unexpected like attacking on Tourmalet today would be quite unexpected, but even if Schleck much is stronger, Contador and his very strong team would most likely be able to real him in on the 130 K there is from the top of the Tourmalet to the finish line.

The "predictable" strategies are predictable by virtue of being the smart strategies. I'm not going to say that it's always stupid to do an unconventional strategy, but it very often is. Attack from very far out (being the most typical non-conventional strategy) generally only works if you're not considered a real threat in the GC and it helps a lot if your opponents team is weak. Neither of these circumstances apply.

ETA: You can also try to split the field, which potentially give a very large gap, but the problem is that it's just so bloody hard to split of a significant part of the field, with enough of the favourites that there aren't enough people wanting to work in the second group, but not including Contador. Generally happens with side-wind, but again forcing the pace with side-wind is hardly an unconventional tactic. Something also happened in 1996, but I don't recall the details.

All true. If Schleck has the legs to make a go of it on the Tourmalet, he could win the Tour in dramatic fashion. I would love it if, after the final TT, he wins the Tour by a handful of seconds left from a minute+ gained on the Tourmalet.

But unconventional efforts are not likely to catch Contador/Astana out. Then again, there was 2006, so... I dunno. Does Andy have the descending skills to maintain something like that? Are there enough peaks (only three) in stage 17 to keep the chasing teams at bay? Not if he's alone.

If Schleck wins the Tour, he will do it by attacking on the Col du Soulor with one or a couple of others.

There are a lot of very strong climbers in this race who have been holding back with their eyes on the Tourmalet. I think a lot of them will have a go on the Soulor (waiting till the Tourmalet is too late, Contador will be in complete control), and, if Schleck latches on to the right one(s), he can use them up one side, down the other, and then for as long as they can hold on on the Tourmalet. Guys like Basso, Van Den Broeck (less likely, given his high standing in the GC), Van Summeren, Rodriguez, Moreau, LuLu or Evans may gladly help Schleck to yellow if it nets them a win on the Tourmalet and a boost in the GC.

But my favorite for this is Gesink. If Rabo send him up the road on the Soulor (sound strategy to shred Astana before the Tourmalet), and Schleck jumps across to him, then, well, that's perfect. It neutralizes/benefits Menchov/Rabo and puts the onus to chase on Contador. It's a perfect fit for both Rabo and Schleck--let's hope it happens!

So: take advantage of others' attacks to kill Astana on the Soulor. If Schleck is up the road from Contador at the bottom of the Tourmalet, he could win the whole thing. If nothing else, it would make for a damned fine stage!

 

[Cerberus]

All true. If Schleck has the legs to make a go of it on the Tourmalet, he could win the Tour in dramatic fashion. I would love it if, after the final TT, he wins the Tour by a handful of seconds left from a minute+ gained on the Tourmalet.

But unconventional efforts are not likely to catch Contador/Astana out. Then again, there was 2006, so... I dunno. Does Andy have the descending skills to maintain something like that? Are there enough peaks (only three) in stage 17 to keep the chasing teams at bay? Not if he's alone.

Obviously there is 2006, but 2006 doesn't really contradict what I said, long range attacks can work when the rider isn't really considered a contender, this was the case with Perierro and it was also the case with Landis due to his time loss. Both these case were examples if (horribly wrong) judgements that the guy who was let go wasn't really a threat in the GC. There's no way that Andy is viewed as similarly harmless.

If Schleck wins the Tour, he will do it by attacking on the Col du Soulor with one or a couple of others.

There are a lot of very strong climbers in this race who have been holding back with their eyes on the Tourmalet. I think a lot of them will have a go on the Soulor (waiting till the Tourmalet is too late, Contador will be in complete control), and, if Schleck latches on to the right one(s), he can use them up one side, down the other, and then for as long as they can hold on on the Tourmalet. Guys like Basso, Van Den Broeck (less likely, given his high standing in the GC), Van Summeren, Rodriguez, Moreau, LuLu or Evans may gladly help Schleck to yellow if it nets them a win on the Tourmalet and a boost in the GC.

But my favorite for this is Gesink. If Rabo send him up the road on the Soulor (sound strategy to shred Astana before the Tourmalet), and Schleck jumps across to him, then, well, that's perfect. It neutralizes/benefits Menchov/Rabo and puts the onus to chase on Contador. It's a perfect fit for both Rabo and Schleck--let's hope it happens!

So: take advantage of others' attacks to kill Astana on the Soulor. If Schleck is up the road from Contador at the bottom of the Tourmalet, he could win the whole thing. If nothing else, it would make for a damned fine stage!

That might be an option, the descent/flat is short enough that it could work ant it would definitely be worth watching. He really need a strong group to already be ahead since it's unrealistic for Schleck to drop Contador and not also drop everyone else.

 

[scribe]

Come all you armchair know it alls, not many chances left what's he gonna have to do get the jersey and time on AC before the final TT considering AC is a better TTer than AS...

Drill the crap out of any AC misfortune, but otherwise start thinking about next year.

 

[mr. tibbs]

Obviously there is 2006, but 2006 doesn't really contradict what I said, long range attacks can work when the rider isn't really considered a contender, this was the case with Perierro and it was also the case with Landis due to his time loss. Both these case were examples if (horribly wrong) judgements that the guy who was let go wasn't really a threat in the GC. There's no way that Andy is viewed as similarly harmless.


That might be an option, the descent/flat is short enough that it could work ant it would definitely be worth watching. He really need a strong group to already be ahead since it's unrealistic for Schleck to drop Contador and not also drop everyone else.

Yeah, that's the kicker. He'd have to wait until one of these others was up the road a bit, and then bridge across. I don't think Contador will let him go w/out a fight, though.