The shock will be if Pogačar doesn't win frankly. The route is actually easier than usual, there is no Civiglio which is the climb where the decisive attack is often made when the race finishes in Como, Sormano even without the Muro should be hard enough for Pogačar to drop everyone after being leadout by UAE and secure an advantage big enough to give him the win.
It also helps that most of his big rivals are not here, Roglič has been one of the best at this race in recent years, Bagioli was second last year and Pidcock was good in Emilia and was one of the biggest podium contenders. Even Remco doesn't look good lately so I don't think he will do more than fighting for second place.
I think Mas could be the second strongest rider in this race but he will need to drop the likes of Remco, Healy and Jorgenson if he wants to finish on the podium. Lipowitz is also an interesting dark horse, I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes on the podium after his showing in Emilia.