João Almeida - Bota Lume

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm a bit skeptical as far as Almeida winning chances for this Giro, he will face top tier 1 GC guys like Evenepoel and Roglic and very competitive GC guys like Vlasov and Thomas which seem at least on par with Almeida, so i guess unless we see a big improvement from Almeida he will contest that final podium spot with Vlasov and Thomas and the win will be decided between Evenepoel and Roglic.
The way that Almeida climbs it's kind of dumb if you ask me, if he saves his energy for the last KMs of the climbs but let a gap between him and the the front riders he will spend that energy for closing the gaps so at the end it doesn't make much sense...

It makes a lot of sense actually. So far he doesn't have the same power/endurance as the top guys, so he has to be smart about how he races. If he has to chose between going in the red early, or going in the red late, the latter is by far the smartest option. Going in the red early means your performance will suffer the remainder of the climb and he will climb slower than what he'd be capable of before going in the red.

 

[groogster]

It makes a lot of sense actually. So far he doesn't have the same power/endurance as the top guys, so he has to be smart about how he races. If he has to chose between going in the red early, or going in the red late, the latter is by far the smartest option. Going in the red early means your performance will suffer the remainder of the climb and he will climb slower than what he'd be capable of before going in the red.

Maybe it's the safe option for him but that only means that he won't be able to go for a GT win. From what we saw from him in the last 2 seasons it looks that he has GT podium in him, and sooner or later he probably finish top3 but for a GT win he won't have a chance if against Evenepoel, Pogacar, Vinge, Roglic. So lets just wait and see if he still has room to improve.

 

[Andy schleck]

So as promised i made a translation of the 2nd part of the cover up story made by Topcycling about Almeida in the words of Matxin and Íñigo San Millán

Matxin

2022 was a transition year for Almeida because he changed everything that he was used to, from the gear to the training methodology and that his performance was what they expected from him.
Matxin said that Almeida way of riding is to manage his watts in the earlier stages of the climbs and that will continue. Last season the main goal was to make Almeida capable of sustaining his efforts in longer climbs so he could be with the best until the end because San Millan decided that he had to improve in that particular aspect.
It was achieved but that kind of training program made him lose his explosiveness, something that he will focus on improving this season to be a more balanced rider. One other thing that they are focusing with Almeida is the positioning because he is spending unnecessary watts closing the gaps. It´s likely that once again this season on the final KMs of the climbs he won't have a domestique to close the gaps for him.
Matxin also stated that in terms of mental skillset Almeida is very strong and ambitious and has what it takes to be a leader.
At the end he said that Almeida is going to the Giro with the goal of winning it. At the end if he manages to be in the podium depending on the circumstances it could be a good result, but he will go for the win.


San Millan

He compared Pogacar with Almeida saying that they are mentally similar but physiologically a rider like Pogacar appears only once every 20 or 30 years. Having that said San Millan stated that Almeida is his special project because with all the data that he has about Almeida he is sure that he has room to improve and that he will be steadily growing stronger in the next seasons.
He also confirm that in the stage 18 of the Giro he was already with symptoms related to covid, that his data was showing less watts and that he was already incubating Covid in the last stages before stage 18. He said that without covid there wasn´t any doubt in his mind that at a worst case scenario Almeida would finish top3 at the Italian GT.

According San Millan Almeida has an amazing understanding of all the science behind the training involved in his development and that concepts like lactate, fat metabolism, carbohydrates and physiology are well understould by him.

As for Almeida chances of winning a GT San Millan said that he needs to climb at around 6,2w/Kg for being in contention for the win. Atm he is capable of doing 6,0wkg in sustained long climbing efforts and that he is confident that Almeida will be around those 6,2w/kg at peak form this season.

6.2 w/kg for how many minutes? That's the question.

 

[Andy schleck]

That's a bit strange what san millan said. Almeida already did 6.1 w/kg during almost 40 min on sega di ala. 6.34 w/kg in 38 min on piancavallo. These are long efforts.
In my opinion almeida is worst in everything after he moved from quick step. Less explosion, he's been worse on descents, is TT it's worse, even is climbing is worse altough some stage victories.

 

[groogster]

6.2 w/kg for how many minutes? That's the question.

It wasn’t stated by San Millán , he was more specific when asked about the objective last season for Almeida sustained climbing efforts of 15, 20 or more minutes because according to him Almeida needed to improve at those despite loosing explosiveness because of it. Saying that now he needs to regain that explosiveness.

 

[groogster]

That's a bit strange what san millan said. Almeida already did 6.1 w/kg during almost 40 min on sega di ala. 6.34 w/kg in 38 min on piancavallo. These are long efforts.
In my opinion almeida is worst in everything after he moved from quick step. Less explosion, he's been worse on descents, is TT it's worse, even is climbing is worse altough some stage victories.

Yes it was, he already did more watts/kg at those climbs.
He was worse in iTT but because he wasn’t riding enough with his itt bike, that’s what Almeida said, but he’s confident that his itt will improve this season.
As far as explosiveness is concern San Millan said
That was due to Almeida training program being more focused in endurance at sustained climbing efforts, something that they will work this season to regain.
As far as descending Almeida said that was due to the lack of gps in the descents which made him being less confident, he said that now that they turned into wahoo thinks will also improve in that remark.
Overall I don’t thing he was generally worse in a GC perspective, he was pretty much looking good for a top3 last Giro before catching Covid.

 

[Ricco']

But then why would they assume his pre-Giro tests would be so much better than last year unless we are faring into clinic territory?

From memory, I remember reading somewhere earlier this year that they still didn't expect for him to reach full potential this season and in the Giro to be more than a podium challenger, due to being a transition year from Quick Step to UAE training methods. I think it was in march or april that I saw something about him still getting used to the new nutrition program that he changed to in UAE.

 

[Red Rick]

From memory, I remember reading somewhere earlier this year that they still didn't expect for him to reach full potential this season and in the Giro to be more than a podium challenger, due to being a transition year from Quick Step to UAE training methods. I think it was in march or april that I saw something about him still getting used to the new nutrition program that he changed to in UAE.

Seems like such a weak excuse to me.

 

[Parrulo]

So as promised i made a translation of the 2nd part of the cover up story made by Topcycling about Almeida in the words of Matxin and Íñigo San Millán

Matxin

2022 was a transition year for Almeida because he changed everything that he was used to, from the gear to the training methodology and that his performance was what they expected from him.
Matxin said that Almeida way of riding is to manage his watts in the earlier stages of the climbs and that will continue. Last season the main goal was to make Almeida capable of sustaining his efforts in longer climbs so he could be with the best until the end because San Millan decided that he had to improve in that particular aspect.
It was achieved but that kind of training program made him lose his explosiveness, something that he will focus on improving this season to be a more balanced rider. One other thing that they are focusing with Almeida is the positioning because he is spending unnecessary watts closing the gaps. It´s likely that once again this season on the final KMs of the climbs he won't have a domestique to close the gaps for him.
Matxin also stated that in terms of mental skillset Almeida is very strong and ambitious and has what it takes to be a leader.
At the end he said that Almeida is going to the Giro with the goal of winning it. At the end if he manages to be in the podium depending on the circumstances it could be a good result, but he will go for the win.


San Millan

He compared Pogacar with Almeida saying that they are mentally similar but physiologically a rider like Pogacar appears only once every 20 or 30 years. Having that said San Millan stated that Almeida is his special project because with all the data that he has about Almeida he is sure that he has room to improve and that he will be steadily growing stronger in the next seasons.
He also confirm that in the stage 18 of the Giro he was already with symptoms related to covid, that his data was showing less watts and that he was already incubating Covid in the last stages before stage 18. He said that without covid there wasn´t any doubt in his mind that at a worst case scenario Almeida would finish top3 at the Italian GT.

According San Millan Almeida has an amazing understanding of all the science behind the training involved in his development and that concepts like lactate, fat metabolism, carbohydrates and physiology are well understould by him.

As for Almeida chances of winning a GT San Millan said that he needs to climb at around 6,2w/Kg for being in contention for the win. Atm he is capable of doing 6,0wkg in sustained long climbing efforts and that he is confident that Almeida will be around those 6,2w/kg at peak form this season.

I read the second part of the interview and the training part was very interesting.

At Quick Step he was on a more interval style training program with more focus on high end efforts which makes sense considering the overall profile of the cyclists at Quick Step.

With San Millan they implemented a more polarized approach which seems to be his go to from what i have heard from him on a few podcasts. Very simply put, polarized training is a high volume approach with around 80% of the work done bellow LT1 (endurance work), around 5% of the work done between LT1 and LT2 (Tempo Work), and around 15% of the work done over LT2.

This drastic change in training could explain his lack of "high end" this year compared to previous years at quick step. The focus was on building a larger foundation so they could raise the roof even higher in the future.

Regarding the 5.9-6.2 W/kg talk, I think he was just throwing around numbers as an exemple, I wouldn't read much into it.

 

[groogster]

Seems like such a weak excuse to me.

It could be an excuse but on the other hand it may well be the reason for Almeida performance last season. After all they were lowering expectations since the beginning of the season, i even heard Almeida interview with thecyclingdane around February were he said just that. When asked if he could fight for the win at Giro he replied that he was still adapting to the new traing methods and gear and that he still wasn't good enough to try anything beyond top3 at the Giro. It seems to me that they (Almeida and UAE) have the right selfawareness of were Almeida stands at any given moment in terms of potential and what they need to work for him to develop even further. The future will tell if he already reached his full potential or if he still has room to improve.

 

[groogster]

I read the second part of the interview and the training part was very interesting.

At Quick Step he was on a more interval style training program with more focus on high end efforts which makes sense considering the overall profile of the cyclists at Quick Step.

With San Millan they implemented a more polarized approach which seems to be his go to from what i have heard from him on a few podcasts. Very simply put, polarized training is a high volume approach with around 80% of the work done bellow LT1 (endurance work), around 5% of the work done between LT1 and LT2 (Tempo Work), and around 15% of the work done over LT2.

This drastic change in training could explain his lack of "high end" this year compared to previous years at quick step. The focus was on building a larger foundation so they could raise the roof even higher in the future.

Regarding the 5.9-6.2 W/kg talk, I think he was just throwing around numbers as an exemple, I wouldn't read much into it.

Yes you are right, now that i've read it again it seems that he was just throwing numbers to make a point.
As with you I also thought that the training part of the interview was the most interesting.

 

[Red Rick]

It could be an excuse but on the other hand it may well be the reason for Almeida performance last season. After all they were lowering expectations since the beginning of the season, i even heard Almeida interview with thecyclingdane around February were he said just that. When asked if he could fight for the win at Giro he replied that he was still adapting to the new traing methods and gear and that he still wasn't good enough to try anything beyond top3 at the Giro. It seems to me that they (Almeida and UAE) have the right selfawareness of were Almeida stands at any given moment in terms of potential and what they need to work for him to develop even further. The future will tell if he already reached his full potential or if he still has room to improve.

It's not like Ayuso or Pogacar took 2 years to adapt to UAE, nor was Almeida decidedly worse than at DQS. Also, he was quite good in Catalunya very early, and in the Vuelta he was worse than in the Giro, so it's hardly like there was some progression going on.

I think UAE just arrogantly thought they could turn Almeida in to a world beater without realising basically noone who leaves DQS ever gets better.

 

[groogster]

It's not like Ayuso or Pogacar took 2 years to adapt to UAE, nor was Almeida decidedly worse than at DQS. Also, he was quite good in Catalunya very early, and in the Vuelta he was worse than in the Giro, so it's hardly like there was some progression going on.

I think UAE just arrogantly thought they could turn Almeida in to a world beater without realising basically noone who leaves DQS ever gets better.

I think it's quite fair and common sense to conclude that Almeida's performance at La Vuelta was affected by his lack of proper training due to Covid, he was unable to get back to training for over a month after infection. If you ask me being 5th was an acceptable result for a guy who had covid and 2 GT in a season.

But i agree that there wasn´t an overall progression over his performance at QS. There is also the real possibility that Almeida already reached his peak despite being young so only the future will tell us if there is still room for him to improve into being a real contender for a GT win.

The expectations for next Giro aren't great going against Evenepoel and Roglic, atm with what we saw until now from Almeida i think that he is on par or at least close enough to Vlasov and Thomas so maybe aiming for podium will be the best he can hope for.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think UAE just arrogantly thought they could turn Almeida in to a world beater without realising basically noone who leaves DQS ever gets better.

That's an often disproven assumption. Yes, in many cases riders don't improve, but for quite obvious reasons. Sprinters who leave QS generally don't improve because at QS they had the best lead-out at a team with a big focus on sprints. Classic riders leaving QuickStep don't improve because they generally leave at an age that they start to decline (Gilbert, Devolder, Terpstra, Stybar...). But there are plenty of examples of riders who left QuickStep who improved. De Plus, Mas, Schachmann, Trentin... even Jungels is again hitting his strides. So riders who still have time to develop definitely can improve after leaving QuickStep.

 

[Red Rick]

I think it's quite fair and common sense to conclude that Almeida's performance at La Vuelta was affected by his lack of proper training due to Covid, he was unable to get back to training for over a month after infection. If you ask me being 5th was an acceptable result for a guy who had covid and 2 GT in a season.

But i agree that there wasn´t an overall progression over his performance at QS. There is also the real possibility that Almeida already reached his peak despite being young so only the future will tell us if there is still room for him to improve into being a real contender for a GT win.

The expectations for next Giro aren't great going against Evenepoel and Roglic, atm with what we saw until now from Almeida i think that he is on par or at least close enough to Vlasov and Thomas so maybe aiming for podium will be the best he can hope for.

He did win Burgos before the Vuelta tbh. It's a bit weird his best performances this year were outside the GTs, although at DQS he wasn't that consistent on the big climbs in the Giro either.

The one clear thing is his TT did go backwards.

 

[Andy schleck]

He did win Burgos before the Vuelta tbh. It's a bit weird his best performances this year were outside the GTs, although at DQS he wasn't that consistent on the big climbs in the Giro either.

The one clear thing is his TT did go backwards.

He did win two mountain stages, at catalunya ans burgos, but it weren't great performances. He's been worse at everything this year if we compare is performances at DQS. He's got worse TT, he didn't improve in the mountains(he never achieved performances like in last week of giro 2021), even in the descents he was worse. He wasn't so explosive at DQS, but he still got worse at emirates.
In my opinion, he choose the wrong team to continue is career. Even with remco he would get is opportunities at DQS, he should stay there, or go to Bora.

 

[groogster]

He did win two mountain stages, at catalunya ans burgos, but it weren't great performances. He's been worse at everything this year if we compare is performances at DQS. He's got worse TT, he didn't improve in the mountains(he never achieved performances like in last week of giro 2021), even in the descents he was worse. He wasn't so explosive at DQS, but he still got worse at emirates.
In my opinion, he choose the wrong team to continue is career. Even with remco he would get is opportunities at DQS, he should stay there, or go to Bora.

I'm not seing that way performance wise.

Clearly worse at iTT (IMO setup and gear had a big part on that)
IMO better at high mountain stages
He lost some explosiveness in UAE but according to San Millán was expected because of the changes made in his training program, in his words they are focusing now in making him more explosive again.

I agree that he would be better at QS or even at Bora (probably they wouldn't signed Vlasov if Almeida had chosen to sign for Bora)

Still, according what has been said from UAE´s Matxin and San Millán they have a multiple season plan for developing Almeida so I will give them the benefit of the doubt.
It's not like they were saying that Almeida would develop already in the first season, quite the opposite to be fair, I recall reading an interview from Matxin as soon as it went public the signing of Almeida that the first season would be a transitional one. We also have to bear in mind that we aren´t talking of a generational talent like Pogacar or Evenepoel so it's more likely than not that we will only see small incremental improvements from Almeida in his performace, maybe he's very close to his maximum capabilities and will never turn into GT winning material.

 

[groogster]

He did win two mountain stages, at catalunya ans burgos, but it weren't great performances. He's been worse at everything this year if we compare is performances at DQS. He's got worse TT, he didn't improve in the mountains(he never achieved performances like in last week of giro 2021), even in the descents he was worse. He wasn't so explosive at DQS, but he still got worse at emirates.
In my opinion, he choose the wrong team to continue is career. Even with remco he would get is opportunities at DQS, he should stay there, or go to Bora.

I also disagree with Burgos not being a great performance from him, in fact he even broke the established climbing record

Lagunas de Neila Vuelta Burgos 3.2 Km/ 9,69% Almeida establish new climbing record 09:44m/19.71km/h / 1911 VAM / 6,75w/Kg

So in my book that was a first class performance

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I also disagree with Burgos not being a great performance from him, in fact he even broke the established climbing record

Lagunas de Neila Vuelta Burgos 3.2 Km/ 9,69% Almeida establish new climbing record 09:44m/19.71km/h / 1911 VAM / 6,75w/Kg

A climbing record for a small part of a climb is not really a climbing record. He was dropped in the part before that (as he usually does) and came back in the section where he has that record. For the total climb, it's not close to the record as Strava shows. Unfortunately he isn't on Strava, but you can use the time of Van Wilder who put his Burgos rides on Strava (and who actually has the KOM on a different section of the climb), to know his time.

https://www.strava.com/segments/24472088?filter=overall

 

[groogster]

A climbing record for a small part of a climb is not really a climbing record. He was dropped in the part before that (as he usually does) and came back in the section where he has that record. For the total climb, it's not close to the record as Strava shows. Unfortunately he isn't on Strava, but you can use the time of Van Wilder who put his Burgos rides on Strava (and who actually has the KOM on a different section of the climb), to know his time.

https://www.strava.com/segments/24472088?filter=overall

It was the fastest ever rider (on par with MAL) to climb that final section of the lagunas de Neila climb (3.2km/9,69%) and i only used it to support my oppinion that it was a great performance by Almeida, only that.

 

[Andy schleck]

It was the fastest ever rider (on par with MAL) to climb that final section of the lagunas de Neila climb (3.2km/9,69%) and i only used it to support my oppinion that it was a great performance by Almeida, only that.

It was a good performance by almeida, but not a first classe performance. Pogacar and vingegaard were doing 7.25 w/kg during 9/10 min at the tour, and they could do better. Even remco did 7.25 w/kg during 10 min at san sebastian classica. But, yeah, 6.75 is not bad, but not first class performance

 

[groogster]

It was a good performance by almeida, but not a first classe performance. Pogacar and vingegaard were doing 7.25 w/kg during 9/10 min at the tour, and they could do better. Even remco did 7.25 w/kg during 10 min at san sebastian classica. But, yeah, 6.75 is not bad, but not first class performance

Well Almeida isn't at Poga/Vinge/Evenepoel level, you are simply comparing Almeida with probably the best 3 riders in the world ATM

 

[groogster]

It was a good performance by almeida, but not a first classe performance. Pogacar and vingegaard were doing 7.25 w/kg during 9/10 min at the tour, and they could do better. Even remco did 7.25 w/kg during 10 min at san sebastian classica. But, yeah, 6.75 is not bad, but not first class performance

BTW I also recall that Evenepoel in 2020 in the same Lagunas de Neila climb did something around 6.37 w/kg.
There are factors like the gradient of the climb, the extention of the climb, the presence/absence of tailwind or the speed of the race untill they reach the climb that will have an impact on the performance of the riders

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

BTW I also recall that Evenepoel in 2020 in the same Lagunas de Neila climb did something around 6.37 w/kg.
There are factors like the gradient of the climb, the extention of the climb, the presence/absence of tailwind or the speed of the race untill they reach the climb that will have an impact on the performance of the riders

It was not the same climb, there were roadconstructions going on and they had to take a detour iirc.

 

[noob]

At least this year the flag on his jersey is clearly visible so he's much easier to find in the bunch!