I'm a huge Pogi fan but I have to say,
While Vingo's real shape will probably stay a question mark until the start of the TdF, Pogi's real shape will most likely also stay a question mark until the TdF because of the Giro.
I only hope both will stay injury free. Everything else is speculation for now.
Based on what I've seen so far in the Giro, I'm not too optimistic for Pogacar - unless Vingegaard does not recover from his injuries and manage to rebuild his form. Of course, Pogacar is on another level compared to the rest of the Giro riders, but he and UAE also seem to continue making the same mistakes that contributed to losing the TdF '22 and '23: sprinting when not necessary, using energy when not necessary + the fact that his team still seems to be weak (Bjerg and Majka being the only ones who really perform on the inclines).
It's as if UAE still somehow thinks Pogacar can do everything on his own because he's so strong - and so, if Vingegaard recovers, my prediction is it'll end up like the previous years: Pogacar doing flashy, but ultimately futile bursts of speed; Vingegaard conserving energy until the two most decisive mountain stages + the time trials; Visma having a train of tre-four top helpers vs one or none for Pogacar.
As you say, there are two big question marks: how the Giro affects Pogacar, and whether Vingegaard returns to form after the crash. But think about last year: After the first mountain stage where Vingegaard destroyed Pogacar, he said to Danish tv in his usual quiet, soft spoken manner: "I don't want to sound arrogant, but I was actually surprised how easy it was to drop him" (!). Then, Pogacar made a comeback and they ping-ponged for a while during the race, until Vingegaard produced an Indurain-esque (or better) time trial, ran Pogacar into the ground, and buried him on the hardest mountain stage of the Tour.
It was exciting to watch while they were only a few seconds apart in the GC, but ultimately, I'm not sure Visma ever had any doubts about whether Vingegaard would win. Pogacar was - like now in the Giro - on a different level to the rest of the peloton, but Vingegaard was in his own galaxy.
Unless Vingegaard simply doesn't recover, I think we'll see the exact same story repeat it self - a little bit like the Armstrong years when Lance had watts/kg numbers that put him in untouchable territory.