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Jonas Vingegaard: Godzilla, the King of Monsters

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The track record doesn't look good for Americans in Yellow.

There's only been 5 Americans to ever wear Yellow; Tour winners LeMond, LA & Landis. Zabriskie wore Yellow for 4 stages in 2005 when he beat LA in the stage 1 TT. Hincapie wore Yellow in 2006 after stage 1.

4 out of the 5 are confirmed dopers.
Not really a coincidence is it? We have the same national ADA to thank for 3 out of those 4 convictions.

I'm sure there are tons of Slovenians lining up to be that country's Travis Tygart...
 
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Visma were going to send Vingegaard to the Tour as long as he was fit.

I do believe he's juiced to the max, obviously. I also don't think Visma is some sort of saintly organization which cares about rider health, nor do I believe they'd 'protect' Vingegaard & not send him to the TdF if he's not good enough to win. He's their star rider so he's on the team. It's as simple as that. The result will be what it'll be.

I think 'everyone dopes' is literally a thing in the top half of the UCI rankings. It's an arms race & I'm still shocked the whole Armstrong saga didn't really awaken most to that fact (he took the fall for everyone else's sins, apparently). Honestly the 'people' (press & cycling fans alike) come across as way more naïve & gullible now than ever before.

So what's really going on here? The biggest responder in world cycling (our friend Vingo) got badly hurt early April. They've fixed him the best they can, they've juiced him the best they can & now they're sending him to the Tour because that's what the sponsors want.

After some consideration I've reached the conclusion he'll be 'okay' but nowhere near the yellow jersey. He might grab a stage win though (this will be painted as a big win in & of itself). I don't believe he'll win the Tour because that would entail Visma doing something extraordinary to cut corners which no one else has access to, i.e. a boost only available to them. Maybe on one stage with a carefully timed 'trick', it's possible (like Combloux, i.e. whatever that was), but over 3 weeks? No. Pog will destroy him. In fact there's a few others on the startlist who'll also do much better in GC.

The truth is we've already seen subpar Vingegaard (Paris-Nice 2022, week 1 of Vuelta 2023), so we almost know what to expect, i.e. there or thereabouts.

That's my opinion.
Reason, logic and whatever we know of homo sapiens and exercise physiology all say that your take is more or less correct. But this is cycling after all.
 
After some consideration I've reached the conclusion he'll be 'okay' but nowhere near the yellow jersey. He might grab a stage win though (this will be painted as a big win in & of itself). I don't believe he'll win the Tour because that would entail Visma doing something extraordinary to cut corners which no one else has access to, i.e. a boost only available to them. Maybe on one stage with a carefully timed 'trick', it's possible (like Combloux, i.e. whatever that was), but over 3 weeks? No. Pog will destroy him. In fact there's a few others on the startlist who'll also do much better in GC.

The truth is we've already seen subpar Vingegaard (Paris-Nice 2022, week 1 of Vuelta 2023), so we almost know what to expect, i.e. there or thereabouts.

That's my opinion.
Maybe I overestimate Vingegaard, but I noted that prior to the injury, Visma said his numbers were even better than in 2023. And I think we saw in the few races he got do early in the year that he was in another galaxy compared to riders like Ayuso or Bernal. So the question also becomes: Knowing that Pogacar would also step up the arms race in 2024, how much of a margin was Visma operating with?

My gut feeling is that if he hadn't had the injury Vingegaard would have taken the kind of performances we saw in last year's time trial and decisive mountain stage to the next level. So with that kind of margin, having a big setback - although obviously inconvenient - might not have derailed him completely.

But obviously, it also depends on Pogacar. How great is his max level? Who has the highest watts/kg? On UAE, a big change from the last two years seems to be that they're finally lining up with a super squad that can actually compete with Visma. Ayuso, Almedia & Yates vs Jorgenson, Kuss & Van Aert. And this time, Pogacar doesn't enter the Tour after injury. Nonetheless, I expect the pattern from '22 and '23 to repeat itself: Vingegaard being conservative for most of the race, then stepping into alien zone when it really matters and deciding the race ...

We'll see
 
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Like i said, and i will say it again...."miracles" in this sport happens a lot, and i wouldn't admire if he will be in better shape than in the Tour 2023.

Emirates maybe have been giving a new "juice" to Pogacar in 2024, but let's not forget Visma could give a lot of new "juices" to Vingegaard in the last 3 months due to his injury, that will help him.

This sport never change, the history tell us that.
 
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It will be a close race until the final ITT. But I'd bet big that Vingegaard will beat Pog by at least two minutes in the final stage.
Visma says they see the last weekend of the race as key. And that while the first weeks may be difficult, that's where Vingegaard could likely shine. So I think you're right we'll probably see another blazing TT perormance from him in that last stage + the mountain stages leading up to it.

I'm guessing we'll see Vingegaard riding conservatively until then i.e. being in Pogacar's wheel, maybe with some minor losses of time due to Pogacar's explosive riding style. But nothing that can't be recovered in those final stages.

 
It will be a close race until the final ITT. But I'd bet big that Vingegaard will beat Pog by at least two minutes in the final stage.
So you assume we'll see the most dominant (and doped) ITT performances in 30+ years from the same rider? Don't get me wrong but 2023 Stage 16 ITT was simply "best Indurain style" but delivered by a skinny, light climber. I'm not convinced that Visma will dare to do it again, that's a very risky move. Someone can start digging this subject, including French authorities or investigate journalists. I mean Visma will probably at least try to limit the winning margin to 1:00 -1:15 to Pog or whoever comes second on this stage.
 
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So you assume we'll see the most dominant (and doped) ITT performances in 30+ years from the same rider? Don't get me wrong but 2023 Stage 16 ITT was simply "best Indurain style" but delivered by a skinny, light climber. I'm not convinced that Visma will dare to do it again, that's a very risky move. Someone can start digging this subject, including French authorities or investigate journalists. I mean Visma will probably at least try to limit the winning margin to 1:00 -1:15 to Pog or whoever comes second on this stage.
Only low level pros and has-beens dope. All the top riders are just talented and train better
 
So you assume we'll see the most dominant (and doped) ITT performances in 30+ years from the same rider? Don't get me wrong but 2023 Stage 16 ITT was simply "best Indurain style" but delivered by a skinny, light climber. I'm not convinced that Visma will dare to do it again, that's a very risky move. Someone can start digging this subject, including French authorities or investigate journalists. I mean Visma will probably at least try to limit the winning margin to 1:00 -1:15 to Pog or whoever comes second on this stage.
If the race is close, I doubt they will risk playing games. He will go thermonuclear
 
One has to admit that if Vingo somehow wins the Tour (under those difficult circumstances) he'll gain absolutely legendary status (also for the guys from the clinic subforum!). I mean, come on, in early May he was tired after a 1-hour ride (and was breathing noticeably hard when commenting his first outdoor ride).
 
One has to admit that if Vingo somehow wins the Tour (under those difficult circumstances) he'll gain absolutely legendary status (also for the guys from the clinic subforum!). I mean, come on, in early May he was tired after a 1-hour ride (and was breathing noticeably hard when commenting his first outdoor ride).
If he wins this year the media will crucify him, but i think jumbo doesnt give a ****
 
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Imagine reactions to Vingo doing 7+ w/kg attacks, Pogi saying "I'm gone, I'm dead" on Benette and Rogla & Remco sitting comfortably 10+ minutes down in the GC :tearsofjoy:
If he wins this year the media will crucify him, but i think jumbo doesnt give a ****
Before Tignes he didn't go to Mallorca to just catch some sun. "Miracles" happens in this sport, and i am almost sure he could be even in better shape than last year, because the injuries "open the door" for more "fresh juices".

This is a real battle at the moment, for who can take more "juices" between Emirates and Visma, and Visma will not get behind.

I am a big fan of him, but i know very well how this sports work since "almost ever", and i don't give a *** about that. I just want to see good entertainment, a nice battle between the best riders in the Tour, and if in the end my favourite rider wins....then it will be perfect.
 
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Before Tignes he didn't go to Mallorca to just catch some sun. "Miracles" happens in this sport, and i am almost sure he could be even in better shape than last year, because the injuries "open the door" for more "fresh juices".

This is a real battle at the moment, for who can take more "juices" between Emirates and Visma, and Visma will not get behind.

I am a big fan of him, but i know very well how this sports work since "almost ever", and i don't give a *** about that. I just want to see good entertainment, a nice battle between the best riders in the Tour, and if in the end my favourite rider wins....then it will be perfect.
A lot of people here underestimed Jonas but i am afraid he is gonna beat my guy
 
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