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Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard: The Butterfly Effect

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Which thread title(s) do you prefer? (you may submit your own)

  • The Chicken who eats Riis for breakfast

    Votes: 32 33.3%
  • When they go low, Vingo high

    Votes: 6 6.3%
  • Wings of Love

    Votes: 8 8.3%
  • The Fishman Cometh

    Votes: 14 14.6%
  • The Mysterious Vingegaard Society

    Votes: 12 12.5%
  • Vingo Star

    Votes: 15 15.6%
  • The Jonas Vingegaard Discussion Thread

    Votes: 29 30.2%
  • Vingegaard vs Roglič

    Votes: 6 6.3%

  • Total voters
    96
  • Poll closed .
''At Visma Lease a Bike there is no certainty about the selection for the Tour, since Van Aert and Vingegaard are not yet at the top level. “We’re still in doubt about both Jonas and Wout. There were all kinds of scenarios, but there was no concrete scenario. [...]”

And then there is the theme of Van Aert-Vingegaard: what about the two? Niermann is clear: “They are not what they should be, no. Otherwise it would be clear. They have both fallen hard and are not at last year’s level. We need to look at how much sense it makes. They prepare them and that is going well, but it is not the level that they reached exactly one year ago. It is certainly achievable, but we make decisions.”
 
Thats how it is when you crash. You have to spend all the time to catch up instead while other is improving. Its not easy to be competetive in those situations. Like Pog last year- hes obvious not as talented as him tho Vinge is talented in GT no doubt. Also which is very important comes into play when hes training now instead of purely recovering to push more etc the body spends ALOT of energy on healing which adds up - even more so entering in a GT. Its rough.

Its hard to see him winning the Tour unless Pogacar is unlucky but then again hes always somewhat has to rely on Pogacar not beeing at his best, but Pogacar after the giro very might well not be at his best and he can be unlucky/crash and what not so better to start.

Get well champ.
 
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Today's Dauphine stage highlighted the challenge for recovery. Remco was strong but couldn't do all the things on a climb he might be able to do in a month. He's also built for recovery on his injuries with a solid core (his critics call it fat) that hinders him in steep climbs, now. Jonas was not built for that sort of recovery and IMO is at least a month behind what you see in Remco. Not sure about WvA but he is likely missing the intensity he'd want to have for his type of efforts. He could come good in the Tour's last week and someone like Matteo would appreciate that.
 
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Vingo's training shortcomings are obvious so I think he's honest there. However, I do think they are doing whatever they can to improve Vingo as quickly as possible and decide in the last moment. With crushes of their top stars hampering the season maybe they are being a bit desparate here wanting to make an impact at the Tour.

I think he's absolutely being honest.

One year ago Vingegaard was demolishing the Dauphiné without breaking a sweat. The gap versus the rest was enormous.

Whereas now...

Tbh I might be changing my mind a little regarding Vingegaard's TdF prospects, i.e. going from being pretty convinced he'll be ready to now thinking... maybe not. It's Evenepoel who is ironically also showing that coming back after an injury is really not straight-forward. Vingegaard had it much worse than Evenepoel as well.
 

Skeletor's Tour participation would feel like a big plot-twist, really. Most people have already accepted that he probably won't be present/competitive there. It's thought that Teddy's only rival will be himself (crash or potential post-Giro fatigue) and then...boom, his kryptonite is back! They will be delaying the decision as long as possible...I'll believe it when I see it.
 
Skeletor's Tour participation would feel like a big plot-twist, really. Most people have already accepted that he probably won't be present/competitive there. It's thought that Teddy's only rival will be himself (crash or potential post-Giro fatigue) and then...boom, his kryptonite is back! They will be delaying the decision as long as possible...I'll believe it when I see it.
I can't be sure 100% he will start the Tour in top shape, but i'm sure he will be there. I don't believe he will be one month in Tignes to comeback to Denmark.

I believe he can still start the Tour in a shape similar with the last week of the Vuelta 2023 in the worst scenario.
 
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I think that's too good of a shape to realistically hope/believe for him to start with.
That's almost a GT winner shape. I'd say that finishing the Tour in such a shape would be success, let alone starting it with such.
I believe he will start in a good shape, otherwise they wouldn't be confident on going to the Tour with him. If he is staying one month in Tignes, they believe he will finish the training camp in good shape.
 
I believe he will start in a good shape, otherwise they wouldn't be confident on going to the Tour with him. If he is staying one month in Tignes, they believe he will finish the training camp in good shape.
I think it's normal for a defending Tour winner to try and build the best possible shape for the Tour,
I bet he'd start the Tour even 80% (assuming that his Vuelta was 90-95%). He has nothing to lose.


I just think that if they were as confident he'd be in a good enough shape , they'd confirm he is gonna race by now.
 
I think it's normal for a defending Tour winner to try and build the best possible shape for the Tour,
I bet he'd start the Tour even 80% (assuming that his Vuelta was 90-95%). He has nothing to lose.


I just think that if they were as confident he'd be in a good enough shape , they'd confirm he is gonna race by now.
I don’t agree on that point. Even in the best scenario, i think they will do bluff until we have a stage where we can see the real shape.
 
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I don’t agree on that point. Even in the best scenario, i think they will do bluff until we have a stage where we can see the real shape.
I don't think they bluff. They would be bluffing if they claimed he is in good shape. Not confirming he's ready for the Tour just feeds the ambitions of Quickstep/Bora/UAE to try and kill him in the first stages when, even by your logic, he isn't supposed to start in top shape.

IMHO a much better bluff would be if they pretend he's looking great. "It's not sure he'll do the Tour yet" doesn't bring any benefits to Visma.
 
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I don’t agree on that point. Even in the best scenario, i think they will do bluff until we have a stage where we can see the real shape.
I wouldn’t count on that. Due to injury and especially due to severely interrupted training process I don’t think there’s any real chance he can use the element of surprise and drop Pog at the beginning of the Tour. His chance would be holding in to the best extent possible and hope Pog starts to feel the Giro legs in the final week. But by that point, he will long have revealed whatever he’s got in the bag.

Also if Pog is smart, he will start the Tour full gas knowing that Vinge won’t be in top shape. And let me remind you - even top shape Vingegaard got dropped by Pog several times during the first two weeks of 2023 Tour.
 
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I wouldn’t count on that. Due to injury and especially due to severely interrupted training process I don’t think there’s any real chance he can use the element of surprise and drop Pog at the beginning of the Tour. .... And let me remind you - even top shape Vingegaard got dropped by Pog several times during the first two weeks of 2023 Tour.
You said it yourself. Pogačar was at his best for the first two weeks after that the bad preparation started to show. Why wouldn't Vingegaard be at his best for the first two weeks?
 
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I believe he will start in a good shape, otherwise they wouldn't be confident on going to the Tour with him. If he is staying one month in Tignes, they believe he will finish the training camp in good shape.

I'm almost sure regarding two things:

1) They desperately want Vingo to participate in the Tour, especially given their season so far.
2) They don't want him to lose his aura i.e. the Tour victory will be the goal, not just riding it to prepare for the Vuelta for example.

And those two goals may actually be conflicting if Vingo can't reach good enough level. IMO it's not possible that the shortened preparation won't affect his form, their best hope is Pogacar strongly feeling the Giro effects at some point (maybe that's why they are considering the Tour in the first place).
 
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I think it's normal for a defending Tour winner to try and build the best possible shape for the Tour,
I bet he'd start the Tour even 80% (assuming that his Vuelta was 90-95%). He has nothing to lose.


I just think that if they were as confident he'd be in a good enough shape , they'd confirm he is gonna race by now.
As good as Vingegaard is, at 80% he can't win Tour de l'Avenir let alone TDF.

Even at 95%. Let's say he can push 7w/kg on 15min climb when at 100%. That means that at 95% he would only be pushing 6,65w/kg.

If he starts TDF and I think he does he will be at least 99%. The real problem is to hold that form and to avoid "I'm dead" days for three long weeks with not ideal preparation.
 
I'm almost sure regarding two things:

1) They desperately want Vingo to participate in the Tour, especially given their season so far.
2) They don't want him to lose his aura i.e. the Tour victory will be the goal, not just riding it to prepare for the Vuelta for example.

And those two goals may actually be conflicting if Vingo can't reach good enough level. IMO it's not possible that the shortened preparation won't affect his form, their best hope is Pogacar strongly feeling the Giro effects at some point (maybe that's why they are considering the Tour in the first place).
I think Vingo will be pretty vulnerable in the first week, whereas Pogi may feel the Giro more towards the end. We'll see.
 
I'm almost sure regarding two things:

1) They desperately want Vingo to participate in the Tour, especially given their season so far.
2) They don't want him to lose his aura i.e. the Tour victory will be the goal, not just riding it to prepare for the Vuelta for example.

And those two goals may actually be conflicting if Vingo can't reach good enough level. IMO it's not possible that the shortened preparation won't affect his form, their best hope is Pogacar strongly feeling the Giro effects at some point (maybe that's why they are considering the Tour in the first place).
Totally agree with this. Visma has been awful this season so they desperately need Jonas to win the Tour. Pogacar will kill him on Galibier, he is very good in early mountain stages and can creat a huge gap in shallow gradients because he is very powerful. Who is gonna chase Pogacar and not lose a minute? Kuss, Matteo, Hindley? Roglic will not expose himself for 4 km