Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard: The Wizard of Visma

[Bushman]

I was not taking the piss. I presented a hypothesis to discuss how both riders actually would stack up if both had equally bad teams and how it would have altered the race at key moments. You countered that with a hypothetical that brings no value to this discussion what so ever. So let's say you were discussing a hypothetical decision with your partner, what could have happened in your life if you had quit your current job years ago, for a job that paid less, but made you happier. To which your partner responds "we also might have been hit with a nuclear bomb". Well, sure, it's possible, but it adds no value to the discussion. Also, considering you quitting your job would likely have no influence on nuclear bombs getting dropped, it's safe to say that since that timeframe has passed, that was never going to happen anyway, since it actually didn't happen. So what is the value of such a response? None.

I can understand you don't like hypothetical discussions, but this is a forum where people give their opinions and many of those will be "what if".

What we can be sure of is that Vingegaard + Jumbo was significantly better than Pogacar + UAE. But considering how weak UAE was, and how strong Jumbo was, for me it is not a forgone conclusion to assume Vingegaard by himself was better than Pogacar by himself (had he used his brain). People seem to forget Pogacar completely imploded on Granon. Not only Vingegaard dropped him, but he also got passed by by riders you would otherwise not even consider finishing ahead of him on a stage like that. Quintana, Bardet, Thomas, Gaudu, Yates... all caught up with him and left him for dead. Does that sound like Pogacar was at the top of his game? So claiming, like some have been doing here, that team tactics, team strength, wasting energy not just that day but the two weeks leading up to that day, had only a minor effect on the outcome is nothing short of laughable. So it is also rather likely that Pogacar was not at the top of his game on Hautacam or during the TT.

That doesn't mean Vingegaard doesn't deserve the victory. He and the team made perfect use of the situation and their strengths. If not stronger, at the very least they were smarter, so good job. But as to assume that had Pogacar played his cards differently, he could never have beaten Vingegaard anyway, i don't share that sentiment. That's all.

I’m not opposed to hypotheticals per se. But there is way too much randomness and luck involved in cycling to present the statement “if Vingegaard had not been riding for Jumbo-Visma he would have lost 5 minutes on the cobbles” as a meaningful argument.
As I said previously I dont disagree that Pogacar made several mistakes during the race and didnt manage himself carefully. Of course he bonked hard on Granon and his performance was not a result of his ‘usual’ climbing level, but the fact that Vingegaard put minutes into everyone else as well, after attacking from far out and expending huge amounts of energy, speaks to his phenomenal shape and climbing abiltity in the Tour ‘22. Hautacam and the final tt likewise.
I dont have a lot more to add to this discussion so I will leave it at that. I just find your initial comment, about Vingegaard’s victory being more a result of Pogacar losing the race than Vingegaard winning it, somewhat disrespectful of the huge amount of effort put into the preparation and the subsequent incredible performance of Vingegaard and Jumbo. Imo Vingegaard very much won the race by his own (and his team’s) strength despite the mistakes of Pogacar.

 

[gunara]

With the likes of Pog, Roglic, Remco etc. around, I can't help seeing him now as the odd representation/continuation of the preceding generation's type of alpha GT rider : super climber, superlean, elite TTist on his day, minimum interests towards classics, with limited form outside his main GT megapeak (which often enough to make him win races ), prototyped maybe in the late 20th century and perfected a decade ago. Riding in crazy strong team just helps the impression.

 

[BigCoward]

That was the most tedious argument I've read on the Internet, and that's up against some pretty stiff competition.

 

[Red Rick]

Very mid Paris Nice from Vingegaard.

I guess I just overestimated his Gran Camino performances based on like 1 high watts climb after a very easy day and an ITT with no good competition.

 

[glassmoon]

I'm not disappointed... I believe he's just where they've planned to be in this stage of the season considering his main goal. No panic necessary.

 

[BigCoward]

If JV is at the level he was at last July, nothing I've seen from Pog this year makes me think it's anything other than a toss up at the TdF.

 

[KZD]

If JV is at the level he was at last July, nothing I've seen from Pog this year makes me think it's anything other than a toss up at the TdF.

The problem that I have with this argument is

1 - Jumbo will likely won't have the same level at the very least because Roglič won't be there.

2 - UAE had really bad luck last year, they lost 4 riders during the race and Trentin even before the Tour started. On top of that, UAE is stronger on paper than last year with Adam Yates, Wellens and Grosschartner.

Another issue for Vingegård is that although this is a mountainous Tour, it has more mid than high-mountains which should suit Pogačar better. So, while Vingegård can win again this season, he will have a much harder time this time and Pogačar should likely start as the main favourite.

 

[Andy schleck]

Another issue for Vingegård is that although this is a mountainous Tour, it has more mid than high-mountains which should suit Pogačar better. So, while Vingegård can win again this season, he will have a much harder time this time and Pogačar should likely start as the main favourite.

I disagree on that point. I think is a high mountain tour with a lot of long climbs.
Tourmalet/cambasque, Puy de dome, grand colombier, and above all joux plane and col de la loze, are stages/climbs that suit better vingegaard.

Joux plane stage, la loze stage, are stages with 4200 and 5200 vertical meters.

La bettex and le markstein suit better pogacar.

 

[bNator]

I disagree on that point. I think is a high mountain tour with a lot of long climbs.
Tourmalet/cambasque, Puy de dome, grand colombier, and above all joux plane and col de la loze, are stages/climbs that suit better vingegaard.

Joux plane stage, la loze stage, are stages with 4200 and 5200 vertical meters.

La bettex and le markstein suit better pogacar.

Yeah, we'll see about that. I think Pog proved many times over he doesn't have a specific weakness. Concluding he somehow sucks in long climbs or at heights is waaay premature I think. We have occasions where he suffered on that kind of terrain (Loze 2020, Ventoux 2021 and of course Granon 2022). However, there's many more occasions where he was very successful on that same kind of Terrain. Let's put it this way - two of these climbs you mention were already featured on the TDF stages he won.

 

[Nick2413]

JV is playing the long game and building up Pog’s confidence just like last year. They’ve got him right where the want him and will take 10 mins on Loze.

 

[Andy schleck]

Yeah, we'll see about that. I think Pog proved many times over he doesn't have a specific weakness. Concluding he somehow sucks in long climbs or at heights is waaay premature I think. We have occasions where he suffered on that kind of terrain (Loze 2020, Ventoux 2021 and of course Granon 2022). However, there's many more occasions where he was very successful on that same kind of Terrain. Let's put it this way - two of these climbs you mention were already featured on the TDF stages he won.

Pogacar doesn't suck on long climbs. I didn't said that. I'm just comparing theoretically with vingegaard, what suits better for each other.

 

[Rackham]

Apparently Vingegaard had a private problem before the race & that affected his performance (according to Merijn Zeeman): Zeeman: 'Waren optimistisch over Vingegaard, maar hij was niet op z'n allerbest' (nos.nl)

But he does confirm they were aiming to win it.

 

[Red Rick]

Apparently Vingegaard had a private problem before the race & that affected his performance (according to Merijn Zeeman): Zeeman: 'Waren optimistisch over Vingegaard, maar hij was niet op z'n allerbest' (nos.nl)

But he does confirm they were aiming to win it.

Pretty clear language from Zeeman that under normal circumstances Roglic will not race the Tour.

 

[Andy schleck]

Pretty clear language from Zeeman that under normal circumstances Roglic will not race the Tour.

I still believe they will add another climber to the tour de france team. Kuss and Kruijswijk are the only pure climbers in the team list for the tour

Vingegaard
Kuss
Kruijswijk
Van aert
van hooydonck
Van baarle
Bennot
Laporte

This is the team listed for the tour, if procyclingstats is right.
I think they are missing another good climber instead of van hooydonck. I think roglic could be on that spot.
Kelderman could be other option for domestique at the tour, and then roglic to the vuelta like he is listed.

 

[bNator]

Pogacar doesn't suck on long climbs. I didn't said that. I'm just comparing theoretically with vingegaard, what suits better for each other.

Ok ok - maybe I was being a bit too colorful there while expressing opinion

Anyway, In my opinion this years TDF could (if both of them have incident free race) confirm or deny the theory that Vingegaard is better on long high altitude climbs than Pog. The latter surely learned his lesson last year and if Vingegaard beats him again on this type of terrain, this time it should be conclusive… Until next year, haha

 

[CyclistAbi]

Itzulia and Dauphiné with or without Pogi?

 

[Red Rick]

Itzulia and Dauphiné with or without Pogi?

Itzulia definitely without.

And it looks like Pogacar is going to to the Tour of Slovenia again.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Personally i wouldn't be surprised if Pogi turns out at the start of Dauphiné.

 

[hayneplane]

I still believe they will add another climber to the tour de france team. Kuss and Kruijswijk are the only pure climbers in the team list for the tour

Vingegaard
Kuss
Kruijswijk
Van aert
van hooydonck
Van baarle
Bennot
Laporte

This is the team listed for the tour, if procyclingstats is right.
I think they are missing another good climber instead of van hooydonck. I think roglic could be on that spot.
Kelderman could be other option for domestique at the tour, and then roglic to the vuelta like he is listed.

That was would be an awesome team to rocket launch Pogacar in the hilly stages and shorter mountains but it is clearly lacking in climbing talent to blitz the field on HC climbs consistently for Vingegaard given Kuss blows hot and cold and Kruijswijk appears finished as a super domestique and should only be 3/4 place in the train.

 

[Andy schleck]

That was would be an awesome team to rocket launch Pogacar in the hilly stages and shorter mountains but it is clearly lacking in climbing talent to blitz the field on HC climbs consistently for Vingegaard given Kuss blows hot and cold and Kruijswijk appears finished as a super domestique and should only be 3/4 place in the train.

I don't believe this will be the final team for the tour. I believe they will put more climbers in the squad.

 

[Netserk]

That was would be an awesome team to rocket launch Pogacar in the hilly stages and shorter mountains but it is clearly lacking in climbing talent to blitz the field on HC climbs consistently for Vingegaard given Kuss blows hot and cold and Kruijswijk appears finished as a super domestique and should only be 3/4 place in the train.

Kuss was pretty solid throughout the Tour last year, he was only missing on Granon. And given the level Kruijswijk had in Dauphiné and the Tour until he crashed out, I think it's too early to write him off.

 

[CyclistAbi]

A scenario where Pogi just has to wheelsuck. Until JV launches Jonas.

Good luck with that.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Personally i wouldn't be surprised if Pogi turns out at the start of Dauphiné.

He prefers demolishing semi-pros (who only take part to get his autograph) and playing rock scissors & paper.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Krzysztof_O

I don't know. This year is just somehow makes sense. To face Jonas at Dauphiné. We'll see on what actually happens.

 

[Andy schleck]

@Krzysztof_O

I don't know. This year is just somehow makes sense. To face Jonas at Dauphiné. We'll see on what actually happens.

It makes sense to compare the shape of each other.