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I think they put Roglix in la vuelta, because then they have chance to win all 3 grand tours of the season. In TDF they can have Kruijvijk, Kelderman, Kuss which is a good climbing core + benoot and Van baarle can climb very well. Benoot did good GCs a few years ago and Van baarle was a climber in INEOS. WVA is also phenonomenl climber when somebody tells him how to do tactics. If they think all this is not enough then why not draft in Valter to do TDF also, he was top 15 in il Giro
It would be the equivalent of Nibali I think. Very close to it at least!
It will be interesting to see on how things pan out indeed. From Jonas perspective he hence needs to drop Pogi climbing. And hope for that to be enough.
Without Rogla involved Pogi can race rather openly. As it's mostly mano a mano, doms likely often dropped. Hence both riders are under similar level of pressure. Attacker spending a little more energy. But tasking for both.
With Rogla involved i feel that all three musketeers would find themselves in a situation(s) where Pogi could prevail and it's all over. Or Pogi realizes the duo is too strong and he could lose the war. He might decide to mitigate the damage by letting one go. Would be interesting to see which one. And likely there will be some new tactical ideas involved on both sides.
But all in all for Rogla it's all about Giro now. Best if we leave Jonas to worry about the Tour. And whatever happens in the end it will likely be grand.
Without Rogla involved Pogi can race rather openly. As it's mostly mano a mano, doms likely often dropped. Hence both riders are under similar level of pressure. Attacker spending a little more energy. But tasking for both.
With Rogla involved i feel that all three musketeers would find themselves in a situation(s) where Pogi could prevail and it's all over. Or Pogi realizes the duo is too strong and he could lose the war. He might decide to mitigate the damage by letting one go. Would be interesting to see which one. And likely there will be some new tactical ideas involved on both sides.
But all in all for Rogla it's all about Giro now. Best if we leave Jonas to worry about the Tour. And whatever happens in the end it will likely be grand.
I would love a Roglic win, but not by vingegaard and pogacar crashing out and missing that duel! And it won't come to that anyway, Roglic must be one of the worst voodoo-performers in the peloton.
Even though everyone knew Roglic was hurt after the crash at the Tour last year, Jumbo managed to bluff Pogacar to such an extent that even at nearly 3 minutes down, Pogacar would not let Roglic up the road. Only at 5km from the top of the Galibier did Roglic fade and then the penny dropped for Pogacar.
Jumbo had always WvA up the road (after going for Green Jersey points) and men around the team leaders, but with no Roglic, it will be more difficult at this year's Tour.
Jumbo had always WvA up the road (after going for Green Jersey points) and men around the team leaders, but with no Roglic, it will be more difficult at this year's Tour.
Hopefully Pog has learned something from last year? If Rogla is strong, Pog would be best advised to ignore him and stick to Vingegaard’s wheel in the mountains. If Rogla makes time in that situation the dynamics in Jumbo might also work in Pog’s favour- divide and conquer.
Pogacar reacting to Roglic, who was hurt and 3 minutes down was absolutely brainless. I don't expect him to make that mistake again because Vingegaard actually mauled him on Hautacam and beat him in the ITT too.
Roglic coming off the Giro should just not be as scary. Vingegaard being there to cover his reactions should actually be more reason for Pogacar to not react to Roglic.
I imagine that's also in a roundabout way how Jumbo could talk Rog into doing the TdF, i.e. "you'll be less marked than before...". It's like a cycling variation of The Tortoise and the Hare, with Rog as a tortoise whilst Vinge & Pog are the hares messing about with their own duet.
At the end of the day it should come down to what the rider himself wants, aka vamos a la playa in Spain in August versus one last shot at tempting fate in July in France?
A lot IMO totally depends on how he feels coming out of the Giro. His level in March though offers some pretty tasty possibilities going forwards.
There's an old military saying, “Armies prepare to fight their last war, rather than their next war” which can be true if Jumbo think they can just out climb Pogacar. Roglic should have been in Jumbo's Tour team, in my opinion, as he's a class rider. That Roglic is off to the Giro, weakens the Tour team and makes Jumbo management look weak or taking a big risk.
Why does it make Jumbo look weak? I think they just back Vingegaard.
It all comes down to why Roglic is doing the Giro. Unless Jumbo sends him to the Giro kicking and screaming I don't see why he'd be at the Tour unless Bahrain completes the set and crashes him out of the Giro too
I think it makes the Jumbo management look like they're trying to win the Giro, but I could be wrong.
Jumbo management are looking weak if Roglic wants to do the Giro and they don't (which seems logical to me) and it's risky as it deprives the tour team of a class rider. Roglic might well win the Giro, but it might cost Jumbo the Tour.
Wout van Aert said Roglič wanted to lead the team in a GT this year, which is why he's doing the Giro. I read about this after they announced the rider schedules for this year.
I think Rog wanted to go the TdF as team leader but this was obviously impossible (due to Vinge defending his title) so the Giro is next best. Jumbo's entire approach to rider schedules has always been a balancing act between their own team goals but also keeping the riders happy, i.e. Jumbo probably absolutely did want Rog on the TdF team as protected rider number 2 & first lieutenant to Vingegaard but based on what we've heard, Rog didn't want that.
Jumbo can't force riders of Rog's calibre to do things they don't want to do. It would be totally counterproductive.
I think Rog wanted to go the TdF as team leader but this was obviously impossible (due to Vinge defending his title) so the Giro is next best. Jumbo's entire approach to rider schedules has always been a balancing act between their own team goals but also keeping the riders happy, i.e. Jumbo probably absolutely did want Rog on the TdF team as protected rider number 2 & first lieutenant to Vingegaard but based on what we've heard, Rog didn't want that.
Jumbo can't force riders of Rog's calibre to do things they don't want to do. It would be totally counterproductive.
Personally I don't believe that. It would be pretty presumptuous on Roglic' part to want the whole team in support for the Tour, when they have the defending champion on the team. Just not realistic. So that seems unlikely to me.
You think Roglic would be okay doing the Tour and not having a good shot at riding for himself?
I think it's perfectly believable that Jumbo basically offered Roglic a choice between being the #2 choice for the Tour and the undisputed #1 for the Giro and Roglic took the latter.
It doesn't have to be a source of conflict within the team either.
But that's different. I don't believe Roglic demanded a whole team in support for the Tour, didn't get it, and then went for the Giro. That's what I mean.
Just realised something; he needs to win a ProSeries stage race! If he does, then he'll have won:
Two cat.1 stage races: Coppi e Bartali, and O Gran Camino.
A ProSeries stage: Which he hasn't won, but he will have if he wins one. (Now, here's statement nobody can disagree with!)
A week-long WT stage race: Itzulia.
And of course a GT: Le Tour.
Two cat.1 stage races: Coppi e Bartali, and O Gran Camino.
A ProSeries stage: Which he hasn't won, but he will have if he wins one. (Now, here's statement nobody can disagree with!)
A week-long WT stage race: Itzulia.
And of course a GT: Le Tour.
If Roglič was in any other team other than Jumbo or UAE, they wouldn't just give him number one status in the Tour, they'd be transferring riders every winter to build the best possible support around him. In fact Ineos literally did call Jumbo last year & asked about Rog's contract situation.
Jumbo kept him because he's a winner. It seems likely the rider who came back from his shoulder operation & beat Evenepoel in Catalunya probably also thinks he can win the TdF as well (i.e. something which takes a huge amount of self belief to achieve). It doesn't seem too unbelievable tbh.
With that not being possible, he's going to the Giro to win that instead.
It's about getting a full set.
Meanwhile, on his PCS page:
H2H Suggestions
Yeah... let's have a H2H between Vingegaard... and a rider who retired when he was FOUR...
His name is Jonas Vingegaard Rasmussen.
I'm quite sure they must be closely related. Probably brothers.
*Michael Rasmussen, not Bjarne...
There are a lot of angles to this discussion but in the end i feel that Roglič wants to win the Giro. And it's as simple as that. Considering there is a lot of ITT involved at Giro 2023. It's a good opportunity.
As for Vingegaard he really doesn't have much other choices then to be JV leader at Tour 2023. And it's not like he is objecting to it.
As for Roglič and Tour 2023. Here i feel that things are still rather open.
We'll see.
As for Vingegaard he really doesn't have much other choices then to be JV leader at Tour 2023. And it's not like he is objecting to it.
As for Roglič and Tour 2023. Here i feel that things are still rather open.
We'll see.
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