Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Mountain Sprinter

[Samu Cuenca]

They could, but two things go against that. First one is it doesn't suit Rogla style all that much and the second is Jonas actually wants to attack early in the climb.

So such tactics would go against both expectations. And then again do they really need bait? Maybe Pogi should let Rogla go, as bait. Who knows. We'll see.

Vingegaard doesn't always attack early, and especially not when he's up against Pogačar in the Tour. And unlike this year, I don't expect there to be the same kind of uncertanty regarding Pogačar at the start of next years TdF, which makes it less like that Vingegaard will risk anything in the first part of the race.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Samu Cuenca

With Rogla in the team Jonas will want to attack early. Jonas for sure doesn't plan to go deep into the stage before attacking and potentially to prepare terrain for Rogla stomp.

Internal battle preventing that.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

@Samu Cuenca

With Rogla in the team Jonas will want to attack early. Jonas for sure doesn't plan to go deep into the stage before attacking and potentially to prepare terrain for Rogla stomp.

Internal battle preventing that.

But they should be using Roglič to gain a tactical advantage, which they won't be getting if he's just waiting around to do a Rogla stomp, because they already have Vingegaard to try and follow Pogačar in the final.

 

[CyclistAbi]

But they should be using Roglič to gain a tactical advantage, which they won't be getting if he's just waiting around to do a Rogla stomp, because they already have Vingegaard to try and follow Pogačar in the final.

JV is ATM not interested in anything else then Jonas winning the Tour. So Rogla stomp is not something they pay much attention to. If anybody is hence Pogi, that can potentially gain a tactical advantage. That is if he believes Jonas would be much harder to beat, then Rogla. In such case he should send Rogla ahead as bait. At around a minute. That should implode JV. Unless i guess Rogla is more powerful then given credit for. But that i guess is the thing with tactics, it doesn't always work.

We'll see.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

To Vingegaard: I always ask myself, would Jonas Vingegaard have beaten a 1999-2005 Lance Armstrong at Le Tour?…

Till now I found no answer. What do you guys feel?…

 

[kn0s]

To Vingegaard: I always ask myself, would Jonas Vingegaard have beaten a 1999-2005 Lance Armstrong at Le Tour?…

Till now I found no answer. What do you guys feel?…

I don't know how the current "good boys" would handle the bully's of years past. Think they would have a hard time mentally.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Roglic can't drop Vingegaard.. It's usually the other way around.
Roglic has to be grateful when Vingegaard is cruising.
Same in Dauphine 2022 where they drove together hand in hand and that "race" as a whole... Roglic was one grateful fish that Vingegaard was loyal and let him take the win, as Vingegaard seemed stronger but still loyal to his teammate, even though he did seem to have the edge, but you need other people to challenge, as dropping your captain would likely trigger some.

Roglic also knows that he ain't gonna win if Vingegaard is there, and why Roglic big goal Tour de France is not a priority..
tried in 2021 and 2022, and both times Vingegaard was stronger.
Roglic aint a challenger to Vingegaard on the main goal The Tour, only Pogacar.
Pogacar would also beat Roglic in my view.. these two are in a league of their own and here Vingegaard got the edge with 2 Tour de France wins, and could even have been 3, as he did seem stronger in the latter half 2021 Tour de France and also dropped Pogacar in the third week, but was almost 6 minutes down before the end-game, as Vingegaard did came into 2021 as a 100% helper for Roglic that couldn't keep it together. (dnf) - Vingegaard was not a GC contender in 2021 TdF, it was first as a backup plan when Roglic GC crumbled.. VIngegaard got the TdF spot as the very last in 2021 on Jumbo Visma and 100% helper..

That is the biggest letdown of Vuelta 2023.. the lack of full-blown clashing between Roglic & Vingegaard, and the fight I personally wanted to see, as here Jumbo was quite clear.. they would be allowed to fight it out .
I still wanna see Vingegaard being dropped in a Grand Tour and how he would handle it but the competitors need to do it in the first half, as in the latter half and mainly the third-week, he is superior in recovery.

PSA: Roglic was :40 ahead of Vingegaard before that stage when Vingegaard appeared stronger. Both had them career best watts. Could Vingegaard have gone faster? Probably. Could he have gone :41 faster? Doubt it.

To the bolded: So disingenuous. Roglic crashed out in 2021 and 2022, so Vingegaard didn’t “prove stronger.” I agree though that it would have been great to see them race one another in this Vuelta.

The reality is that we haven’t seen full strength Rog against Vinge or Pog head-to-head since Tour 2020, when Pog pulled a freak rabbit out of a hat and Rog lost on the last stage. Everything else is extrapolation.

 

[Froome]

Roglic can drop Vingegaard, if Vingegaard is at 90% of his best shape, otherwise he can't drop him.

Pogacar and specially Vingegaard are in another world in terms of grand tours.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

@Froome we don’t know that, but I agree that Roglic has not dropped Vingegaard post 2021 aside from a stage in the 2022 Dauphine that was a mountain sprint I believe. However, Vingegaard has not straight up dropped Roglic either.

Roglic has dropped Pogacar in a mountain stage. Has Pogacar dropped Roglic?

I love Pogi - probably second favorite rider - but he lost nearly 3 minutes on one stage in 2022 and nearly 7 minutes on one stage in 2023. The only evidence that Pogacar is better than Roglic in GTs is the 2020 Tour. Pogi hasn’t even been close to winning a GT since July 2021. Could he have won a Giro or Vuelta had he targeted it? I certainly think so. But the only evidence we have that Pogi is better than Roglic in GTs is the result on one crazy MTT in 2020.

 

[Nick2413]

@Froome we don’t know that, but I agree that Roglic has not dropped Vingegaard post 2021 aside from a stage in the 2022 Dauphine that was a mountain sprint I believe. However, Vingegaard has not straight up dropped Roglic either.

Roglic has dropped Pogacar in a mountain stage. Has Pogacar dropped Roglic?

I love Pogi - probably second favorite rider - but he lost nearly 3 minutes on one stage in 2022 and nearly 7 minutes on one stage in 2023. The only evidence that Pogacar is better than Roglic in GTs is the 2020 Tour. Pogi hasn’t even been close to winning a GT since July 2021. Could he have won a Giro or Vuelta had he targeted it? I certainly think so. But the only evidence we have that Pogi is better than Roglic in GTs is the result on one crazy MTT in 2020.

I’ve been thinking about that as well. Going up against peak Vingegaard is a vicious task and maybe the same would happen to Roglic, but his consistency seems higher and is Pog really a much better GT rider now than in 2020?

 

[SHAD0W93]

@Froome we don’t know that, but I agree that Roglic has not dropped Vingegaard post 2021 aside from a stage in the 2022 Dauphine that was a mountain sprint I believe. However, Vingegaard has not straight up dropped Roglic either.

Roglic has dropped Pogacar in a mountain stage. Has Pogacar dropped Roglic?

I love Pogi - probably second favorite rider - but he lost nearly 3 minutes on one stage in 2022 and nearly 7 minutes on one stage in 2023. The only evidence that Pogacar is better than Roglic in GTs is the 2020 Tour. Pogi hasn’t even been close to winning a GT since July 2021. Could he have won a Giro or Vuelta had he targeted it? I certainly think so. But the only evidence we have that Pogi is better than Roglic in GTs is the result on one crazy MTT in 2020.

The other things we’ve seen is that Pog beats the others by a greater margin than Roglic.

 

[kn0s]

PSA: Roglic was :40 ahead of Vingegaard before that stage when Vingegaard appeared stronger. Both had them career best watts. Could Vingegaard have gone faster? Probably. Could he have gone :41 faster? Doubt it.

To the bolded: So disingenuous. Roglic crashed out in 2021 and 2022, so Vingegaard didn’t “prove stronger.” I agree though that it would have been great to see them race one another in this Vuelta.

The reality is that we haven’t seen full strength Rog against Vinge or Pog head-to-head since Tour 2020, when Pog pulled a freak rabbit out of a hat and Rog lost on the last stage. Everything else is extrapolation.

Agree that we know less about there comparable levels than we think. But the 40 seconds you are taking about is from the ITT where Jonas was still affected by his sickness. He said he didn't really feel fine till stage 16. Also agree Jonas is not finding minutes on Angliru, Roglic was super strong.

I think the only way to guess the absolut peaks against each other, is to see how Jumbo prioritize. They are the only ones with all the relevant data.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

To Vingegaard: I always ask myself, would Jonas Vingegaard have beaten a 1999-2005 Lance Armstrong at Le Tour?…

Till now I found no answer. What do you guys feel?…

This is interesting. In terms of peak level I think Vingo is the strongest GT rider since Lance. But If you look at Armstrong's level i.e. from 2001, it was ridiculous. Alpe d' Huez solo attack in 38 minutes, demolishing Ullrich and co in a flat TT and in an uphill TT. It could depend on the route, on 2001 route I think it would be Armstrong (due to a long, flat TT) on this year's route...I'm not sure. It's possible that Vingo and JV, given their strong pace on the toughest stages, would be able to crack Armstrong a bit and gain some time (due to Vingo having pure climber's physique and being able to endure more high-pace climbing).

Another aspect is who had better preparations? (this is not for this part of the forum though).

 

[CyclistAbi]

Regarding the winning margin. If you are rather sure that first and second podium position are out of reach. And if the two cyclists taking them like to attack early. Then in my opinion the winning margin, to third podium position, is expected to be substantial. And that doesn't necessary imply the racing was any harder, for the cyclist finishing third. It mostly just comes down to cyclist finishing third not interested in chasing a wild goose.

 

[Froome]

@Froome we don’t know that, but I agree that Roglic has not dropped Vingegaard post 2021 aside from a stage in the 2022 Dauphine that was a mountain sprint I believe. However, Vingegaard has not straight up dropped Roglic either.

Roglic has dropped Pogacar in a mountain stage. Has Pogacar dropped Roglic?

I love Pogi - probably second favorite rider - but he lost nearly 3 minutes on one stage in 2022 and nearly 7 minutes on one stage in 2023. The only evidence that Pogacar is better than Roglic in GTs is the 2020 Tour. Pogi hasn’t even been close to winning a GT since July 2021. Could he have won a Giro or Vuelta had he targeted it? I certainly think so. But the only evidence we have that Pogi is better than Roglic in GTs is the result on one crazy MTT in 2020.

Vingegaard and pogacar are pushing unbeliavable watts during all year, not just in the tour de france. The difference between the two, to the rest in terms of power, it's very big.

Maybe in the short climbs, roglic can be more close to them, but in the long climbs......

 

[Rackham]

Vingegaard and pogacar are pushing unbeliavable watts during all year, not just in the tour de france. The difference between the two, to the rest in terms of power, it's very big.

Maybe in the short climbs, roglic can be more close to them, but in the long climbs......

Maybe, but Rog's Angliru performance was no joke. People said "Vinge could have gone faster!" but it was still one hell of an ascent.

What's really going on with Roglič is he can be a little bit inconsistent, especially after a crash or just not feeling so great (I've often assumed the rain can affect his performances as well).

If he's got great legs he won't get dropped, no matter the terrain. But if he's slightly below par then sure, he can hide this better on the shorter climbs & terrains which suit his punchiness more.

 

[Froome]

Maybe, but Rog's Angliru performance was no joke. People said "Vinge could have gone faster!" but it was still one hell of an ascent.

What's really going on with Roglič is he can be a little bit inconsistent, especially after a crash or just not feeling so great (I've often assumed the rain can affect his performances as well).

If he's got great legs he won't get dropped, no matter the terrain. But if he's slightly below par then sure, he can hide this better on the shorter climbs & terrains which suit his punchiness more.

Rog's angliru performance was very good, but we have got to remember that vingegaard wasn't in his peak shape, and he still was able to follow roglic. It was a good performance, but not tour france's level, landa just lost 19 s to roglic and vingegaard.

I have some doubts that roglic can follow vingegaard and pogacar in the tour. The level is high, the watts are monstruous.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Agree that we know less about there comparable levels than we think. But the 40 seconds you are taking about is from the ITT where Jonas was still affected by his sickness. He said he didn't really feel fine till stage 16. Also agree Jonas is not finding minutes on Angliru, Roglic was super strong.

I think the only way to guess the absolut peaks against each other, is to see how Jumbo prioritize. They are the only ones with all the relevant data.

I was talking about the 2022 Dauphine.

 

[kn0s]

I was talking about the 2022 Dauphine.

Ahh, makes sense. I would favor Roglic in many one week races compared to Jonas anyway.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Maybe, but Rog's Angliru performance was no joke. People said "Vinge could have gone faster!" but it was still one hell of an ascent.

What's really going on with Roglič is he can be a little bit inconsistent, especially after a crash or just not feeling so great (I've often assumed the rain can affect his performances as well).

If he's got great legs he won't get dropped, no matter the terrain. But if he's slightly below par then sure, he can hide this better on the shorter climbs & terrains which suit his punchiness more.

What we know:
1) At the Vuelta Rogla was similarly strong to Vingegaard, who had Tour in his legs and was far from his best in the first half of the race.
2) At the Giro Rogla beat Thomas by dozen or so seconds.
3) When Pog & Vinge engage afterburners at the Tour the rest is teleporting backwards (last two editions), its not 19 seconds like Angliru. Sometimes they can put into the rest a minute in 1 km (see Puy de Dome for example). Their repeated performances there (also Tourmalet or Joux Plane) are the highest level in GTs for years.

Rogla is capable of super strong performances but his GTs nowadays simply don't indicate that kind of sustainable level (sure he could've overtaken Pog following his implosion on Loze but there was still Vinge left).

 

[kn0s]

What we know:
1) At the Vuelta Rogla was similarly strong to Vingegaard, who had Tour in his legs and was far from his best in the first half of the race.
2) At the Giro Rogla beat Thomas by dozen or so seconds.
3) When Pog & Vinge engage afterburners at the Tour the rest is teleporting backwards (last two editions), its not 19 seconds like Angliru. Sometimes they can put into the rest a minute in 1 km (see Puy de Dome for example). Their repeated performances there (also Tourmalet or Joux Plane) are the highest level in GTs for years.

Rogla is capable of super strong performances but his GTs nowadays simply don't indicate that kind of sustainable level (sure he could've overtaken Pog following his implosion on Loze but there was still Vinge left).

This is what my gut tells me also. But I can understand, if you are a Roglic super fan, you need to see it happen to know for sure.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This is what my gut tells me also. But I can understand, if you are a Roglic super fan, you need to see it happen to know for sure.

I do think that Rogla has to hold back a bit to fire a bazooka (like Angliru or Lussari). For example in the last mountain stage before Lussari Rogla was going toe to toe with Thomas, who (compared to Pog & Vingo) at times looked like an amateur at the Tour last year. Also at the Vuelta before Angliru (during that controversial stage) Rogla was saving his matches while "disobedient" Vingo went deeper and still was able to match Rogla the next day. I do think that Rogla's fresh peak 30-minute w/kg can be close to Vingo's and Pog's but firing those efforts day in day out is another story: for example Vingo fired 2 watt bombs (TT and Loze) in consecutive days and actually 3 in 5 days (also counting Joux Plane). This is crazy stuff that made even Pogacar crumble.

 

[Rackham]

What we know:
1) At the Vuelta Rogla was similarly strong to Vingegaard, who had Tour in his legs and was far from his best in the first half of the race.
2) At the Giro Rogla beat Thomas by dozen or so seconds.
3) When Pog & Vinge engage afterburners at the Tour the rest is teleporting backwards (last two editions), its not 19 seconds like Angliru. Sometimes they can put into the rest a minute in 1 km (see Puy de Dome for example). Their repeated performances there (also Tourmalet or Joux Plane) are the highest level in GTs for years.

Rogla is capable of super strong performances but his GTs nowadays simply don't indicate that kind of sustainable level (sure he could've overtaken Pog following his implosion on Loze but there was still Vinge left).

I won't argue with any of this because I don't know. I also know what Vinge & Pog (especially the former) did in the Tour was crazy. Even more so in 2023 than 2022.

But Roglič has a riding style which IMO can lead people to conclude he's lesser than the best. This isn't a new phenomenon. Nicolas Fritsch (former French rider & now Eurosport consultant) said Rog's level is difficult to read because he's like a pole vaulting competitor in athletics, i.e. when the bar is raised, he matches it. And so on.

This IMO was most evident in Catalunya in March where Almeida (who Roglič beat by less than 20 seconds in Tirreno-Adriatico) was catapulted over 2 minutes down two weeks later in the Volta a Catalunya because Evenepoel's incessant attacks drew Rog along with him & pushed both of them way further ahead of all the others.

In that respect I don't think the 14 seconds against G Thomas means much with regards to his prospects in the Tour, especially because of his injury in that Giro.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I won't argue with any of this because I don't know. I also know what Vinge & Pog (especially the former) did in the Tour was crazy. Even more so in 2023 than 2022.

But Roglič has a riding style which IMO can lead people to conclude he's lesser than the best. This isn't a new phenomenon. Nicolas Fritsch (former French rider & now Eurosport consultant) said Rog's level is difficult to read because he's like a pole vaulting competitor in athletics, i.e. when the bar is raised, he matches it. And so on.

This IMO was most evident in Catalunya in March where Almeida (who Roglič beat by less than 20 seconds in Tirreno-Adriatico) was catapulted over 2 minutes down two weeks later in the Volta a Catalunya because Evenepoel's incessant attacks drew Rog along with him & pushed both of them way further ahead of all the others.

In that respect I don't think the 14 seconds against G Thomas means much with regards to his prospects in the Tour, especially because of his injury in that Giro.

I know that 14 seconds doesn't represent the real difference between Rog & Thomas but I just wanted to indicate that Rogla is not head & shoulders above the rest as often as the two mutants. See my second post (above), when I state that Rogla's peak level can be close to Pog's and Vinge's but he has to hold back more before his best efforts (instead of day in day out fireworks).

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I don’t disagree with any of this, and I’m a big fan. I think Roglic would have been between Vinge and Pog at this year’s Tour because I think Vinge had the best performance since 2009 Contador, maybe since Lance.