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Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Mountain Sprinter

Page 234 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Which thread title(s) do you prefer? (you may submit your own)

  • The Chicken who eats Riis for breakfast

    Votes: 32 33.3%
  • When they go low, Vingo high

    Votes: 6 6.3%
  • Wings of Love

    Votes: 8 8.3%
  • The Fishman Cometh

    Votes: 14 14.6%
  • The Mysterious Vingegaard Society

    Votes: 12 12.5%
  • Vingo Star

    Votes: 15 15.6%
  • The Jonas Vingegaard Discussion Thread

    Votes: 29 30.2%
  • Vingegaard vs Roglič

    Votes: 6 6.3%

  • Total voters
    96
  • Poll closed .
I have no doubt Pogacar will go all out in the early part of the Tour, and we will get the usual choir of people saying the "Tour is over", when he puts 2-3 minutes into Vingegaard in that part of the race.

However IF Vingegaard hits his top level week 3, he can claw back massive amounts of time on especially stages 19 and 21, where Pogacar having done the Giro comes into play.

The big question is if Vingegaard's recovery ability and oxygen intake above 2000 meters has been conpromised by the injury.

Time will tell :)
There are other players that will benefit from these two teams going at it.
Additionally the big IF you noted isn't likely to occur if the race is stressful for JV in general. That, unless Kuss and Jorgenson begin to emerge. Jonas has to demonstrate to himself what level of response he's got.

As for the Giro and Pogacar's recovery? I would suggest that GT was easy enough for him that it amounts to prep training for the Tour. If he folds this Giro's demands would be less of a factor than the history of other attempts at the double. The pressure of achieving the double, however; that won't lessen if it's a tight race. He's not just racing against one guy.
 
Good post, though I think we saw both at their peak in 2022. Bad tactical decisions are a separate but related issue…
Possibly so, but I suspect that Pogacar and UAE underestimated the threat of Vingegaard prior to that Tour and had marked out Roglic as the principal danger. That is where the 2022 Tour was won and lost and not necessarily on the road. In my mind it didn't answer the question as to who was the strongest GC rider since circumstances took over with a decimated UAE team trying forlornly to take back time.

I think we will still be none the wiser after this years Tour. As things stand right now UAE look like the stronger team overall and Pogacar has had a very smooth preparation in comparision to Visma and Vingegaard. On the other hand if Vingegaard somehow wins this Tour it would settle the debate in my mind.
 
If UAE does that in the first stages, and Pogacar cannot be able to drop Vingegaard, then the game will turn sideways. Pogacar will panic, with fear of what Vingegaard can do to him in the last week, even more if Vingegaard just follow his wheel in the first stages.
I don't think Pogacar is built to panic. Almost none of these guys are.
 
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OK, so a new super-domestique for Jorgenson becoming 6th?

I just read the entire route again, now with close comb.
The course itself with the puncheur hill stages start in Italy, the Troyers cobble stage, the intermediate stages, the first real mountain stages soon cannot be more brutal for Jonas in relation to his supposed competitors.
Everything speaks for Pogi starting explosively right from the box, which was already his chance before Jonas' crash (and probably what the organizers were aiming for when planning the route in detail), that he will put Vingo under such tremendous pressure in the first half of the race that the chain breaks. Even the climbs on the first 2 stages can be used to create massive spreads for riders who are not at 100%.
Bear in mind that quite a few other riders with the top skills who show up in 100% top form standing at the starting line in Firenze.

The stages in Italy and the Troyers stage will in any case be anything but calm for Jonas.

A miracle if anything else happens.
Stage four will also reveal everyone's climbing fitness. The Col du Lautaret (2057m altitude) and the Col du Galibier (2627m) aren't as steep as some later climbs, but the sudden altitude jump could be telling.
 
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Stage four will also reveal everyone's climbing fitness. The Col du Lautaret (2057m altitude) and the Col du Galibier (2627m) aren't as steep as some later climbs, but the sudden altitude jump could be telling.
That's what I meant by the first real mountains. UAE will test Visma, Pogi has prepared all year for +2000m altitudes. But especially descent to Valloire will test Jonas' confidense and previous skils here.
Then maybe saved by short and on paper "easy" short 1st ITT but after the Troyes cobbles battle and rest day the Clermont Ferrand stage 11 is top fuel for Pogi and poison for Jonas if he is not at least at 98%.
And again - stage 1+2 has opportunities to create real havoc at Visma if Jonas is dropped at one of the first severe puncheur hill attacts, opening dilemmas for Visma already at opening stages.
Just my POV since I have seen absolutely nothing to justify a Jonas as leader of Visma for this Tour.
Have to see it.
 
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That's what I meant by the first real mountains. UAE will test Visma, Pogi has prepared all year for +2000m altitudes. But especially descent to Valloire will test Jonas' confidense and previous skils here.
Then maybe saved by short and on paper "easy" short 1st ITT but after the Troyes cobbles battle and rest day the Clermont Ferrand stage 11 is top fuel for Pogi and poison for Jonas if he is not at least at 98%.
And again - stage 1+2 has opportunities to create real havoc at Visma if Jonas is dropped at one of the first severe puncheur hill attacts, opening dilemmas for Visma already at opening stages.
Just my POV since I have seen absolutely nothing to justify a Jonas as leader of Visma for this Tour.
Have to see it.
I agree with your previous post. That's why I said that stage 4 "will also reveal everyone's climbing fitness."
 
UAE going nuts from a get go and trying to kill/exhaust Vingo could cause Pogacar's fatigue at the end (also due to the Giro). Those two tiring each other may actually be advantageous for someone like Primoz.
However, the race is not just an "UAE vs Visma" battle.
Fortunately, there are plenty of spicy ingredients in the pot at the starting line :)

A good bunch of single riders and teams with goals to "go full nuts" during the entire first week.
UAE can easily gloat about it on the back seat, without having a decidedly active role, just awareness near the front pack and a few cuts there and there, maing a difference

Opens for slightly too interesting situations for Visma, with perhaps some hanging unnecessarily on the further back seat in e.g. split groups, where UAE naturally finds cooperative teams with stage wins in front of their noses and, hence, rub salt in the wound without UAE sacrificing the wild.

A lot of exciting possible scenarios here that require Visma to be extraordinarily alert, when Jonas arrive in Florence in e.g. 90% of max shape, but without any race training.

So maybe not directly UAE themselves, but then other teams will thoroughly test the uncertainty in unknown unknowns, or rather just go for stage wins amongst 21 other fresh teams in Italy.
 
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There are other players that will benefit from these two teams going at it.
Additionally the big IF you noted isn't likely to occur if the race is stressful for JV in general. That, unless Kuss and Jorgenson begin to emerge. Jonas has to demonstrate to himself what level of response he's got.

As for the Giro and Pogacar's recovery? I would suggest that GT was easy enough for him that it amounts to prep training for the Tour. If he folds this Giro's demands would be less of a factor than the history of other attempts at the double. The pressure of achieving the double, however; that won't lessen if it's a tight race. He's not just racing against one guy.
Ah didn't turn the page here, sry :p
 
86 days before the Tour: Crash, broken ribs and punctured lung, hospitalisation in ICU.
74 days before the Tour: Leaves hospital.
61 days before the Tour: First day on a home-trainer.
53 days before the Tour: First day training outside in Denmark.
41 days before the Tour: First day training in Mallorca.
34 days before the Tour: First day training in the French Alps near Annecy.
32 days before the Tour: Altitude training in Tignes.
9 days before the Tour: Participation in the Tour has been announced.
5 days before the Tour: Altitude training in Tignes done.
 
86 days before the Tour: Crash, broken ribs and punctured lung, hospitalisation in ICU.
74 days before the Tour: Leaves hospital.
61 days before the Tour: First day on a home-trainer.
53 days before the Tour: First day training outside in Denmark.
41 days before the Tour: First day training in Mallorca.
34 days before the Tour: First day training in the French Alps near Annecy.
32 days before the Tour: Altitude training in Tignes.
9 days before the Tour: Participation in the Tour has been announced.
5 days before the Tour: Altitude training in Tignes done.
Thermonuclear
 
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86 days before the Tour: Crash, broken ribs and punctured lung, hospitalisation in ICU.
74 days before the Tour: Leaves hospital.
61 days before the Tour: First day on a home-trainer.
53 days before the Tour: First day training outside in Denmark.
41 days before the Tour: First day training in Mallorca.
34 days before the Tour: First day training in the French Alps near Annecy.
32 days before the Tour: Altitude training in Tignes.
9 days before the Tour: Participation in the Tour has been announced.
5 days before the Tour: Altitude training in Tignes done.

I like your ever-growing countdown. I'm very curious what will happen when the counter finally gets to 0.