Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Mountain Sprinter

[Big Doopie]

The recency bias on all of these threads truly dominates and can be amusing.

I am as much a culprit as any others. Just an observation.

 

[kn0s]

In fact, I think we don't know. If Vingegaard is better this year, what Pogi did in PN was better than Pogi in TA last year because he beat a better Vingegaard. We are just assuming when we will only have clear answers in the Tour. I think they are equal favourites.

Thought it was common knowledge that Jonas had a personal situation just before PN and was nowhere near 100%

 

[how yes no?]

Not long ago, having one super peak in summer for Tour was regarded as an advantage. With Jonas being so good so soon, I'd rather say he's droping some of the advantage he had last year, not that he's more scary because of solid results now. But let's not forget he also had good sprint in 2021 (he finished ahead of Pogačar in Itzulia and Pogačar was not able to drop him when Roglič escaped) and was not really better in the tour than he was last year.
What we can learn from his last year is that with good base level, there is more than enough time to build great form for July, regardless of spring form.

I also think Pogačar underestimated Jonas last year and also for other reasons was not at his complete best, preperation and racing wise. So I believe he will improve, but we'll see if it will be enough to stay on Jonas wheel in the high mountains, let alone drop him.

Thought it was common knowledge that Jonas had a personal situation just before PN and was nowhere near 100%

I missed that, but he attacked quite confidantly considering he knew he's nowhere near his best. Kudos for bravery!

 

[kn0s]

I
missed that, but he attacked quite confidantly considering he knew he's nowhere near his best. Kudos for bravery!

His physical form was probably not far off. Think it was mentally he had some trouble. He was kissing/waving at the camara mid race and didn't seem to be completely himself. It was a thing in the tabloid press here beforehand and the team acknowledge it was an issue afterwards. No idea what it really was about.

I think the Itzulia Basque was much more of a goal for Jonas compared to PN. All in preparation for the TdF start. There where many downhill finishes like in the TdF and he had to test out, if he was capable of holding the bunch behind him, if he could make the difference up hill. When he did it on mount Ventoux it didn't help him much, so a test here I think was important.

 

[Rackham]

His physical form was probably not far off. Think it was mentally he had some trouble. He was kissing/waving at the camara mid race and didn't seem to be completely himself.

That wasn't Jonas Vingegaard. That was his insane twin brother.

Jumbo were keeping the real one locked away until July but after seeing all the other top riders in the world win stuff he wanted to join the party.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Concerning Pog, maybe an unpopular opinion, but I think the fact that he is better in the classics this year, than last year, still sends a strong signal for the TdF.

Yes classics have nothing to do with the TdF, but at the minimum it's showing that he's putting more commitment in his training than last year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Concerning Pog, maybe an unpopular opinion, but I think the fact that he is better in the classics this year, than last year, still sends a strong signal for the TdF.

Yes classics have nothing to do with the TdF, but at the minimum it's showing that he's putting more commitment in his training than last year.

Same could be said for Vingegaard. Well, not in relation to classics, but his overall level in spring was also clearly higher than his level last year during spring.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I STILL have Pogacar as the main to beat. This Tour de France is very different to last year's TdF, and there really isn't a super obvious stage (or stages) to blow the race up IMO.

I think the most important factor (lets assume they go with comparable fitness) is the weather. Last year was 25-35 degree full sun throughout the race - that likely wont be the case this year.

55-45 for Pogacar or something close to that. Would be surprised if VIngegaard was the favored rider at bookies going into the race

 

[RedheadDane]

That wasn't Jonas Vingegaard. That was his insane twin brother.

Jumbo were keeping the real one locked away until July but after seeing all the other top riders in the world win stuff he wanted to join the party.

Are you drunk?

 

[Andy schleck]

I STILL have Pogacar as the main to beat. This Tour de France is very different to last year's TdF, and there really isn't a super obvious stage (or stages) to blow the race up IMO.

I think the most important factor (lets assume they go with comparable fitness) is the weather. Last year was 25-35 degree full sun throughout the race - that likely wont be the case this year.

55-45 for Pogacar or something close to that. Would be surprised if VIngegaard was the favored rider at bookies going into the race

Look at morzine stage, la loze stage and even la bettex stage. Even on Tourmalet stage is possible to blow up the race.

Morzine stage -4281 vertical meters
La loze stage-5405 vertical meters
Tourmalet stage-4000 vertical meters
La bettex stage-4527 vertical meters

 

[Rackham]

Are you drunk?

I don't drink. Thanks for the concern though.

Instead of focusing on my own facetious post let's talk about the crux of the matter: Jonas Vingegaard was outperformed by Pogacar in Paris-Nice with a few caveats, i.e. the major one being Vingegaard himself clearly expected to be better because he attacked Pogacar on stage 4 before blowing up. So it was a clear case of "mind wants what the body cannot do".

With regards to the post-Paris-Nice explanations from Jumbo regarding 'why' Vingegaard wasn't at his best (i.e. citing personal problems), for the sake of impartiality I'd expect those who take Jumbo's words at face value to also acquiesce UAE's vague explanations about Pogacar's implosion on Granon in the 2022 TdF, which in his case was heavily implied to be the result of under-fuelling (a food bonk). So what do we have left? Vingegaard crushing Itzulia without Pogacar in the race, Pogacar 'crushing' Vingegaard in Paris-Nice with explanations put forward as per 'why' this happened (aforementioned Vingegaard's vague personal problems) & Vingegaard crushing Pogacar in the 2022 TdF, along with UAE's own vague explanations regarding why that happened.

My opinion? People see what they want to see & believe what they want to believe. This also goes for selectively picking & choosing which team excuses & explanations for various performances & underperformances are a posteriori cited as gospel.

I believe Pogacar was tactically destroyed by Jumbo Visma in the 2022 TdF but man against man in a straight-up fair duel, no matter the gradient, I'd always pick Pogacar over 3 weeks to beat Jonas Vingegaard. He's a better bike racer IMO. Roll on July to see how this duel plays out.

 

[Sciatic]

The recency bias on all of these threads truly dominates and can be amusing.

I am as much a culprit as any others. Just an observation.

In fact, it now seems to be a forum meme: e.g., any GC rider who wins an upcoming stage of Romandie: “he’s the favorite to win the Tour.”

 

[Krzysztof_O]

That wasn't Jonas Vingegaard. That was his insane twin brother.

Jumbo were keeping the real one locked away until July but after seeing all the other top riders in the world win stuff he wanted to join the party.

It's like Data and Lore. They sent Lore to Basque country to entertain fans. One can only imagine how good Data will be at the Tour (so much time for upgrades!). Pogi had better lose baby fat!

 

[CyclistAbi]

Imagine the drama if both Pogi and Jonas won't win TDF 2023. Their careers will be effectively over. And on top of that then Remco shouldn't even try at TDF 2024.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Imagine the drama if both Pogi and Jonas won't win TDF 2023. Their careers will be effectively over. And on top of that then Remco shouldn't even try at TDF 2024.

Never in the Tour history for 3 consecutive years the same two guys were in top2 (any order). Pog and Vinge will race against history. They are huge favourites but many things can happen (i.e. crashes, illnesses, dr Fuentes 2.0).

 

[kn0s]

I don't drink. Thanks for the concern though.

Instead of focusing on my own facetious post let's talk about the crux of the matter: Jonas Vingegaard was outperformed by Pogacar in Paris-Nice with a few caveats, i.e. the major one being Vingegaard himself clearly expected to be better because he attacked Pogacar on stage 4 before blowing up. So it was a clear case of "mind wants what the body cannot do".

With regards to the post-Paris-Nice explanations from Jumbo regarding 'why' Vingegaard wasn't at his best (i.e. citing personal problems), for the sake of impartiality I'd expect those who take Jumbo's words at face value to also acquiesce UAE's vague explanations about Pogacar's implosion on Granon in the 2022 TdF, which in his case was heavily implied to be the result of under-fuelling (a food bonk). So what do we have left? Vingegaard crushing Itzulia without Pogacar in the race, Pogacar 'crushing' Vingegaard in Paris-Nice with explanations put forward as per 'why' this happened (aforementioned Vingegaard's vague personal problems) & Vingegaard crushing Pogacar in the 2022 TdF, along with UAE's own vague explanations regarding why that happened.

My opinion? People see what they want to see & believe what they want to believe. This also goes for selectively picking & choosing which team excuses & explanations for various performances & underperformances are a posteriori cited as gospel.

I believe Pogacar was tactically destroyed by Jumbo Visma in the 2022 TdF but man against man in a straight-up fair duel, no matter the gradient, I'd always pick Pogacar over 3 weeks to beat Jonas Vingegaard. He's a better bike racer IMO. Roll on July to see how this duel plays out.

I think it's very possible that pogi had a feeding problem. He was getting tag teamed like it was the WWF. His shorts was almost completely white from the salt, the dude was cooked. Why should everyone and there grandma go past him if there wasn't a problem. If we look at the rest of the race he should only lose about 30seconds to a minute there under optimal conditions.

 

[Rackham]

It's like Data and Lore. They sent Lore to Basque country to entertain fans. One can only imagine how good Data will be at the Tour (so much time for upgrades!). Pogi had better lose baby fat!

Yep. The Yates brothers have been doing something similar for years. We all know it to be true (& no, I'm hardly the first to notice this obvious identity subterfuge...).

But in all seriousness (& un-seriousness) I see so much fait accompli aka concepts taken as fact in cycling that I can only scratch my head & go "nah, there's a grey area with the truth somewhere in between". Like the commonly accepted 'fact' that Vingegaard is a July super performer whilst Pogacar is an all year long star: I'll nope out of that one, i.e. when people were still in lockdown doing lockdown things in 2020 whilst Roglič was playing with Bernal in the Tour de l'Ain & smashing the first part of the Dauphiné, a certain other Slovenian rider (Pogacar, the one & only) was riding around almost anonymously in the same race (4th overall but nobody was really talking about him as a Tour fav). It turns out UAE & Pog had a masterplan & they absolutely aimed to win the TdF in the final ITT.

Vingegaard meanwhile really burst onto the scene in early 2021 when he won a stage in the Tour of UAE (a mountain stage as well in front of Pog), he won the Coppi e Bartali & also finished second in Itzulia. It's only in the Dauphiné 2021 where he disappeared again until the final stage where he finished behind the mysterious & legendary meme worthy Mark Padun. There's no real pattern.

So I really don't think last month's Paris-Nice should be so easily handwaved as a non-event, whilst I also don't think Pogacar explosion in last year's Tour is a completely valid criteria to base predictions on for this year's TdF (due to the tactical 'unusual' nature of that race & Granon in particular). So IMO it's Vingegaard who needs to demonstrate the fact he's Pog's better in July & cement last year's win, this time going alone head to head in & mano a mano duel with Pog.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I think it's very possible that pogi had a feeding problem.

To bite off more than one can chew?

He took on both Rogla and Jonas and on top of that wanted to do even more after. Hence indeed we could say Pogi had a feeding problem on stage 11.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Maybe both will do Dauphiné or ToS. That would be fun. Discussions after. In regards to what to expect at the Tour.

 

[CyclistAbi]

At TDF 2020 Rogla was a sure thing. At TDF 21/22 unfortunately we didn't get to see a rematch. Still. Pogi was a sure thing. And Jonas ended up winning in 22. At TDF 23 it's a sure thing Pogi or Jonas will win. And at TDF 2024 obviously it will be Remco. Tour is just so bloody obvious.

Or will it be.

 

[Nick2413]

It turns out UAE & Pog had a masterplan & they absolutely aimed to win the TdF in the final ITT.

Eh, you’re pushin’ it

 

[Boehmand]

I agree with you but I will just put here one question to make people think. Are you sure Pogacar isn't better than last year? Last year, he didn't beat a sup optimal MVP in Flanders,in fact, he couldn't drop him. This year, he crushed the best MVP we ever seen in Flanders. Can you really say Pogacar didn't improve?

Of course nobody is sure of that... I think the arguments are mainly directed at the people who say PN + Flanders = Pogacar will crush Vingegaard in July.

First of all nothing now is really indicative of what will happen at the Tour, because a Grand Tour is a very different animal, secondly Vingegaard has clearly improved his spring form significantly over last year.

 

[Boehmand]

Concerning Pog, maybe an unpopular opinion, but I think the fact that he is better in the classics this year, than last year, still sends a strong signal for the TdF.

Yes classics have nothing to do with the TdF, but at the minimum it's showing that he's putting more commitment in his training than last year.

Or it may just be familiarity with the races at play.

Last year was the first time he rode cobbled races, and BTW at this time last year, most people were also saying he would win the Tour with ease, on the back of his great spring season.

 

[Boehmand]

Maybe both will do Dauphiné or ToS. That would be fun. Discussions after. In regards to what to expect at the Tour.

If that happens, I think Pogacar will win the Dauphine (or ToS), because he simply is a better rider in short stage races, where finishing skills are much more important.

I'd even go so far as to say Evenepoel and Roglic are also superior to Vingegaard in 1-week races.

But the last 10 days of a Grand Tour is where the race is decided more often than not.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Look at morzine stage, la loze stage and even la bettex stage. Even on Tourmalet stage is possible to blow up the race.

Morzine stage -4281 vertical meters
La loze stage-5405 vertical meters
Tourmalet stage-4000 vertical meters
La bettex stage-4527 vertical meters

Why are you putting the vertical meters? Giro di Lombardia has close to 4000 meters and Vingegaard would never beat Pogi in a stage similar to Giro di Lombardia. I only see stage 17 and stage 20 as potential stages to drop Pogacar. Tourmalet is too early in the race.