Silly post... but I'll reply seriously (lord knows why).
For the win... it's Contador. Everyone else has to hope Contador screws up somehow.
After that, the only guys who have proven they can climb at the Contador level are Andy Schleck... and at times Frank Schleck (though some days he's not in the same area code). Since they can't TT well enough... they are shooting for podium spots, not the overall win. Frank's inconsistency may have him more in the last group... but he COULD match his good days up with the big climbs and do well.
Then come the riders who can climb well and TT extremely well... but can't climb at the Contador/Schleck level. Because of the lack of TT kilometers, they are a step behind the schlecks... but still have a shot of finishing ahead of them (but not Contador). I'd put guys like Menchov and Evans in this group, and to a lesser extent Leipheimer, Wiggans and Kloden (they may belong in the next group).
Then comes a group of good climbers/good TT riders and those that are better climbers but more suspect in their TT ability. Armstrong, Nibali, Kreuziger, Basso, Pelizotti, Gesink, Vandevelde, Sastre and a bunch of others are in this group. Now any of these guys could have a great few weeks and move up to a podium spot... but none will challenge Contador.
Chances are good that like last year you'll see Contador at #1, Andy at #2 and a big fight for the last podium spot.