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Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 218km

After the second rest day, we have stage 16 -
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The first half of the route is played out on flat to rolling roads. The climbers stretch the legs on the Côte de Fanjeaux (2.4 kilometres at 4.9%) and Côte de Pamiers (2.3 kilometres at 5.8%), although attackers undoubtedly will want to do more than just stretch the legs – they want to go clear on the Fanjeaux. The hill is crested at kilometre 25, so it is a perfect place to break away.

The route continues in undulating fashion and after 124 kilometres the riders enter a long false flat, which is getting steeper along the way until Col de Portet d’Aspet is crested at kilometre 155.5. The actual climb is 5.4 kilometres at 7.1% with its steepest section approximately 1 kilometre before the top.

On descent the riders pass the monument in honour of Fabio Casartelli, who died in a crash on the descent of the Portet d’Aspet in the 1995 Tour de France. Back in the valley the road immediately goes back up again, this time to head for the summit of the Col de Menté. This is a 6.9 kilometres climb at 8.1% with, early on, some intimidating double digit stretches.

A descent with a lot of hairpins, especially in the first part, takes the riders to the valley of the Garonne. Momentarily the Tour de France dips its toe into Spain and on rolling roads the route continues to the base of the Col du Portillon. The fairly regular closing climb is 8.3 kilometres at 7.1%.

The summit of the Portillon lies 10 kilometres before the finish. Fast descenders can take advantage as it’s almost all downhill after the top. Three hairpins in short succession with 5 kilometres out could be tricky – and on it goes on flying descent. The last kilometre is played out on the flat. The winner follows in the footsteps of Thomas Voeckler (2012), Michael Rogers (2014), and Chris Froome (2016).

That last victory was startling. People always thought of Froome as a poor descender, but when all GC-favourites reached the crest of the then last climb Peyresourde together, he dropped down like a rock and won the race 13 seconds ahead of his opponents.

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Final 5 km -
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Weather forecast - hot, 30 C.
 
Sep 6, 2016
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Breakaway day. Alaphilippe vs Barguil for the KOM. Sagan to attack because his green jersey lead isn’t yet secure :p
 
If there is going to be a danger stage for Thomas I think this is it. A long stage in the third week with some technical descents. Post rest day always messes up someone. Dumoulin and Froome look surprisingly good still after doing the Giro. Not a bad stage for Bardet to do something. Top four riders look solid at the moment. Moscon out for Sky will have some impact but they should be able to cover it and it looks like a good stage for a break.
 
Before knowing any possible DNSs for this stage, riders by team:

8: Bora, Cofidis, FDJ, Fortuneo, Mitchelton, UAE, Wanty
7: Bahrain, Direct Energie, EF Education, LottoNL, Movistar, Sky, Sunweb, Quick Step, Trek
6: Astana, BMC, Dimension Data
5: AG2R
4: Katusha, Lotto-Soudal
 
I think this stage is very badly designed. It's an obvious breakaway stage, but the flat start makes it a lot more random who's gonna make it into the break. Still, I'd expect strong teams like Quickstep, Scott and Bora to make sure that Alaphilippe, Yates and Majka gets into the break. Nieve will probably be there as well, and the winner should be one of these four with Yates being my favorite to take the stage win. Other breakaway artists we should/might see in the break include Ion Izagirre, Pozzovivo, Barguil, Caruso, De Gendt, Mollema, Calmejane, Soler, Navarro, Roland, Martinez and Fraile.
 
Re:

Hugo Koblet said:
I think this stage is very badly designed. It's an obvious breakaway stage, but the flat start makes it a lot more random who's gonna make it into the break. Still, I'd expect strong teams like Quickstep, Scott and Bora to make sure that Alaphilippe, Yates and Majka gets into the break. Nieve will probably be there as well, and the winner should be one of these four with Yates being my favorite to take the stage win. Other breakaway artists we should/might see in the break include Ion Izagirre, Pozzovivo, Barguil, Caruso, De Gendt, Mollema, Calmejane, Soler, Navarro, Roland, Martinez and Fraile.

I guess Valverde will want to be in that break too, one of his last chances for a stage, plus he could be useful if by some miracle Landa or Quintana drop the Sky train...