Le Tour 2018 stage 19:Lourdes - Laruns 200,5km

[Robert5091]

At 200.5 kilometres, the 19th stage in the Tour de France travels from Lourdes to Laruns. Amounting to an altitude gain of 4,800 metres, this is the last chance for the climbers to impose themselves on the race. With the Col d’Aspin, Col du Tourmalet and Col d’Aubisque you can rightfully call this the Queen Stage, although the finish is 20 kilometres after the Aubisque in the valley.

 

[Escarabajo]

Quintana is hurt and all time trial specialists are waiting for Saturday Stage. Only interested is Froome and he won't be allowed to attack tomorrow. Therefore nothing happens and a big breakaway to take it.

 

[Red Rick]

Guessing Tourmalet or get the *** out

Big tempo and attack on Tourmalet should reduce Sky to 3 riders.

 

[Robert5091]

A 17 kilometres descent and 3 kilometres on the (false) flat from Aubisque summit to finish in Laruns (if the road does not get washed away again!)

All important last 5 km

 

[Billie]

Froome hopefully says *** you in La Mongie and goes

 

[Moviefan1203]

Will anyone have the balls to go on the Tourmalet? (Besides Froome)

 

[bob.a.feet]

Bardet is probably going to try something, there's no way he is happy with his Tour so far. I think if Dumoulin wants to win the Tour he needs to attack

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dumoulin already said he's not going to go in some suicide early attack. If he's gonna try at all it's going to be on Aubisque

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Guessing Tourmalet or get the **** out

Big tempo and attack on Tourmalet should reduce Sky to 3 riders.

Three riders other than Thomas and Froome, I assume you mean?

 

[Amazinmets87]

Quintana and Bardet need to form an alliance send teammates up the road and both attack at the base of the Tourmalet.

What do they have to lose?

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Will anyone have the balls to go on the Tourmalet? (Besides Froome)

Unfortunately, a long range attack doesn't help many of the top riders. Thomas for obvious reasons, Roglic is happy with a podium and he can get that in the TT, Froome is tired/won't be allowed, Quintana may be hurt and could be satisfied with a stage win and top five, Landa doesn't look great, Kruijswijk will probably settele for 6th/help Roglic; only Bardet I think might actually do something, and he's too far back to actually matter. Dumoulin is the unknown quantity for me: he'll probably feel that if he gets within a minute he has a chance in the TT. Can he gain a minute on just the Aubisque and its descent? Attacking on the Tourmalet is 99% certain not to actually achieve anything, Sky will just chase him down unless he's super strong. However, even if he is caught, he probably won't lose much on the Aubisque. Unless sky push for a froome podium, that is.

 

[JosephK]

Hoping for Primoz to pull a fast one. . . . Still don't trust Froome not to pull another Landis.

People may not realize that the key element to "pulling a Landis" is the "coming back from the dead" aspect. We saw that with Landis's ride to Morzine, of course, and then, just a couple months ago, with Froomey's rise from the ashes in the Giro stage 19. So now, Froome is a complete goner, right? Fading fast, no hope remaining. Hee hee. Just watch.

 

[Robert5091]

This stage will be won or lost on the descents. Landa's big day at last?

 

[Amazinmets87]

TD has too much to risk for an early attack; he's on the cusp of one of the most impressive feats in modern cycling.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Will anyone have the balls to go on the Tourmalet? (Besides Froome)

Unfortunately, a long range attack doesn't help many of the top riders. Thomas for obvious reasons, Roglic is happy with a podium and he can get that in the TT, Froome is tired/won't be allowed, Quintana may be hurt and could be satisfied with a stage win and top five, Landa doesn't look great, Kruijswijk will probably settele for 6th/help Roglic; only Bardet I think might actually do something, and he's too far back to actually matter. Dumoulin is the unknown quantity for me: he'll probably feel that if he gets within a minute he has a chance in the TT. Can he gain a minute on just the Aubisque and its descent? Attacking on the Tourmalet is 99% certain not to actually achieve anything, Sky will just chase him down unless he's super strong. However, even if he is caught, he probably won't lose much on the Aubisque. Unless sky push for a froome podium, that is.

Your assessment is correct, except I won't put 99% failure probability on attacking on the Tourmalet. No way is that high. If you have riders up the road and attack midway there is a small change it will succeed. Not 1%. There is also a chance for one of the top guys to have a bad day and everyone else will smell blood. I don't it will happen but it could happen.

 

[Brullnux]

Dumoulin will have Froome, Bernal, Poels, Kwiat, Castroviejo and future-Tour-winner Luke Rowe chasing him, it's gonna fail.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Dumoulin will have Froome, Bernal, Poels, Kwiat, Castroviejo and future-Tour-winner Luke Rowe chasing him, it's gonna fail.

I want to see that train in the Tourmalet descent

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin will have Froome, Bernal, Poels, Kwiat, Castroviejo and future-Tour-winner Luke Rowe chasing him, it's gonna fail.

I want to see that train in the Tourmalet descent

Froome leading them down it, without braking, after sky find a marginal gain that creates an adhesive track down the mountain.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I think Froome will attack if he is on a great day or Dumoulin isn't

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Come on Froome, please attack on Tourmalet and save this urter disaster of a Tour. Well, it's not gonna happen but one can hope. Realistically, a big break of the usual suspects fights for the stage win and Alaphilippe wins. Martin attacks on the last climb, Quintana counters and passes Martin, gaining 30 seconds on the GC folks, Martin gains 15 seconds and Thomas 5.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Will anyone have the balls to go on the Tourmalet? (Besides Froome)

Unfortunately, a long range attack doesn't help many of the top riders. Thomas for obvious reasons, Roglic is happy with a podium and he can get that in the TT, Froome is tired/won't be allowed, Quintana may be hurt and could be satisfied with a stage win and top five, Landa doesn't look great, Kruijswijk will probably settele for 6th/help Roglic; only Bardet I think might actually do something, and he's too far back to actually matter. Dumoulin is the unknown quantity for me: he'll probably feel that if he gets within a minute he has a chance in the TT. Can he gain a minute on just the Aubisque and its descent? Attacking on the Tourmalet is 99% certain not to actually achieve anything, Sky will just chase him down unless he's super strong. However, even if he is caught, he probably won't lose much on the Aubisque. Unless sky push for a froome podium, that is.

I agree with most of this. If we're talking about going for yellow, the only guy for whom I see an early attack making sense is Kruijswijk for Roglic. Force Sky to hopefully burn doms early in a hope that Roglic can put enough time into G on the climb to be in striking distance in the TT. Of course, he'd also have to put time into Dumo.

 

[Jspear]

Quintana will be sore, but will attack and get the yellow jersey.

 

[yetiyeti]

I expect Roglic to try. Dumoulin will try if he thinks Thomas might be slightly weaker than he’s shown. None of the rest will do anything other than follow wheels IMO.

 

[topcat]

Valverde will attack first, Landa will attack next and then Nairo will attack. They will ride together for a while before Nairo drops them and takes the yellow jersey.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think some of you have watched one too many fantasy shows