Lets assess team strength heading to the rest day.

[Pulpstar]

State of teams at the rest day:

Ok Lets start with Sky

Froome: V strong, massive odds on favourite, one of the best TTers of the GC men, strongest climber.
Porte: Out the GC now, but still a strong lieutenant for the mountains. No idea to tell if hes ok or suffering as he always has a huge grin !
Kennaugh: Suffered a fall today but still probably Sky's '2nd lieutenant' on the climbs.
Stannard: Flat Engine, will be useful Ventoux stage I think
G Thomas: Crocked, should be fine long term but the fracture won't be healed by the Alpes I think.
EBH: Anonymous, sick maybe
Sioutsou: Seems fairly anonymous at the moment. Maybe I missed something on Ax-3 though ?
Kiriyenka: Out of the time limit.

(Edit) David lopez ! completely anonymous - Was wondering who the 9th Sky man was when I made this thread.

I want to try and turn this thread into an objective one stating where all the teams are at the moment. Today Froome got isolated, but they couldn't pull the trigger. Porte was knocked out the GC though, as was Kiri knocked out the race.

Would appreciate people posting about the strength of all the GC team members, obviously Saxo and Movistar.

Belkin:

Gesink - Super Dom for
TGBM - Riding really strong and
Ten Dam.

Saxo:

Contador - Looks out of form at the moment. But improving - obviously didn't have the legs today or he'd have attacked. As he said also the profile wasn't great as Piti would probably have attacked.
Kreuziger - Same time a Alberto. Looks like he has great legs, but that is easier to do when you are towing a weaker team member.. (See TJVG/Evans last year). '2nd GC' card to play for Saxo.
Roche - Slipping back in GC but still looking strong to do the early lieutenant work for Contador/Kreuziger.

Movistar:

Valverde - 2nd in GC so he is the one Froome HAS to follow
Quintana - Looking great, hopefully won't ship too much time in the Time trial. 2nd GC card to play for Movistar.
Rui Costa - Long shot marginal GC card to play for Sky to perhaps force to chase on a big mountain stage.
Amador - Looking good to do a nice dom job in the mountains.
Look to be strong outside the 'main doms' also.

Wildcards:

Ten Dam, Mollema, Purito, Dan Martin (Garmin), Nieve, Fugslang

Everyone else less than 0.1% chance I think.

 

[Gubby Allen]

State of teams at the rest day:

Ok Lets start with Sky

Froome: V strong, massive odds on favourite, one of the best TTers of the GC men, strongest climber.
Porte: Out the GC now, but still a strong lieutenant for the mountains. No idea to tell if hes ok or suffering as he always has a huge grin !
Kennaugh: Suffered a fall today but still probably Sky's '2nd lieutenant' on the climbs.
Stannard: Flat Engine, will be useful Ventoux stage I think
G Thomas: Crocked, should be fine long term but the fracture won't be healed by the Alpes I think.
EBH: Anonymous, sick maybe
Sioutsou: Seems fairly anonymous at the moment. Maybe I missed something on Ax-3 though ?
Kiriyenka: Out of the time limit.

(Edit) David lopez ! completely anonymous - Was wondering who the 9th Sky man was when I made this thread.

I want to try and turn this thread into an objective one stating where all the teams are at the moment. Today Froome got isolated, but they couldn't pull the trigger. Porte was knocked out the GC though, as was Kiri knocked out the race.

Would appreciate people posting about the strength of all the GC team members, obviously Saxo and Movistar.

Belkin:

Gesink - Super Dom for
TGBM - Riding really strong and
Ten Dam.

Saxo:

Contador - Looks out of form at the moment. But improving - obviously didn't have the legs today or he'd have attacked. As he said also the profile wasn't great as Piti would probably have attacked.
Kreuziger - Same time a Alberto. Looks like he has great legs, but that is easier to do when you are towing a weaker team member.. (See TJVG/Evans last year). '2nd GC' card to play for Saxo.
Roche - Slipping back in GC but still looking strong to do the early lieutenant work for Contador/Kreuziger.

Movistar:

Valverde - 2nd in GC so he is the one Froome HAS to follow
Quintana - Looking great, hopefully won't ship too much time in the Time trial. 2nd GC card to play for Movistar.
Rui Costa - Long shot marginal GC card to play for Sky to perhaps force to chase on a big mountain stage.
Amador - Looking good to do a nice dom job in the mountains.
Look to be strong outside the 'main doms' also.

Wildcards:

Ten Dam, Mollema, Purito, Dan Martin (Garmin), Nieve, Fugslang

Everyone else less than 0.1% chance I think.

Sky are struggling. This isnt really what EBH should be here for, Lopez always looked a curious pick and even mode so now, Thomas cannot contribute which is a shame as he was set for a good tour, wouldnt be surprised if he called it a day after the TT. Kiryenka was more of a loss for them as a team than Portes collapse.

Rogers is more of a cog than Roche at the moment, Movistar, no change fancied their 3 to finish around 3rd, 6th and 12th and still do.

I think Katusha havent got out of second gear yet, theyll still have 2 comfortably in the top 10 and both higher than where they are now. Belkin most impressive, not sure if LTD can keep it going though.

 

[Pricey_sky]

EBH can't be that ill, he sprinted to 2nd on the other stage and did a long pull on the front today when they tried to bring Porte back.

Porte now must refocus and hopefully Kennaugh is ok. Sky still need one of Lopez, Suitsou or EBH to help in the mountains. Eddy pulled the peleton up a HC climb last year (cant remember which) so if he is ok then he will help out.

 

[maltiv]

EBH can't be that ill, he sprinted to 2nd on the other stage and did a long pull on the front today when they tried to bring Porte back.

Porte now must refocus and hopefully Kennaugh is ok. Sky still need one of Lopez, Suitsou or EBH to help in the mountains. Eddy pulled the peleton up a HC climb last year (cant remember which) so if he is ok then he will help out.

EBH admitted today that he is nowhere near last year's form, but he doesn't know why. Last year he was with the peloton on the final climb on stage 17 until there were only 20 guys left or so...this year he's nowhere.

 

[Pricey_sky]

EBH admitted today that he is nowhere near last year's form, but he doesn't know why. Last year he was with the peloton on the final climb on stage 17 until there were only 20 guys left or so...this year he's nowhere.

Ah that explains it then, I hadn't heard anything. Well Sky really need him to find something in the next 10 days as I believe they will need him in those final 3 Alpe stages. Lopez has been a let down but perhaps like Eddy he is struggling too.

 

[Ruby United]

Would appreciate people posting about the strength of all the GC team members, obviously Saxo and Movistar.

http://froome19.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/saxo-tinkoff-team-preview.html

 

[maltiv]

Ah that explains it then, I hadn't heard anything. Well Sky really need him to find something in the next 10 days as I believe they will need him in those final 3 Alpe stages. Lopez has been a let down but perhaps like Eddy he is struggling too.

Lopez, Sivtsov and Kiry were dropped before Eddy today, and those guys hadn't even done a pull on the front. I don't know what's going on but they clearly have no form whatsoever. It was obvious already on Corsica.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Lopez, Sivtsov and Kiry were dropped before Eddy today, and those guys hadn't even done a pull on the front. I don't know what's going on but they clearly have no form whatsoever. It was obvious already on Corsica.

Yes I thought they were but couldn't exactly remember as it was all happening at that point in the stage. Perhaps Sky have shot themselves in the foot by splitting strong riders into 2 teams and giving Wiggins lots of support for the Giro which is now seriously affecting what support Froome receives here on the Tour, Suitsou already has the Giro in his legs.

What Brailsford would give to have Uran in the team, perhaps even a fully fit Knees.

 

[Poursuivant]

Kennaugh will be key for Froome now. Looks in great condition, and Porte will bury himself for Froome now that he has no GC ambitions.

 

[forkboy84]

Lopez, Sivtsov and Kiry were dropped before Eddy today, and those guys hadn't even done a pull on the front. I don't know what's going on but they clearly have no form whatsoever. It was obvious already on Corsica.

With Vasily especially it's hard to understand when he looked so strong earlier in the season, but the tank has been empty at the Tour. A strange one.

 

[VeloGirl]

EBH admitted today that he is nowhere near last year's form, but he doesn't know why. Last year he was with the peloton on the final climb on stage 17 until there were only 20 guys left or so...this year he's nowhere.

Seems to be going around. I saw an interview with Tejay who said his numbers were below that of his training numbers and he doesn't know why. He said the heat was a factor, but that he has had great rides in the heat in the past.
He's struggling to figure out what's going on.

 

[BigMac]

Sure Eddy Boss is not like last year, but comparing these two Tours, there is also much more oposition. Last year it was all about Sky, he din't have to worry nor was pust under massive pace pressure.

 

[karlboss]

To me it comes down to the top few riders and for now it appears to be Froome
daylight
Quintana, Valverde, Mollema, Tendam and Kreuziger fits in there too, but I don't know where. Then Contador. Then a host of others filling out the top 20.
With another day like today and there is only 1. Any of these 4 teams could win the Tour and should be happy to sacrifice any other team mate to do so. I'm critical of Movistar's tactics over the final 80km, but Saxo could have had Rogers help earlier to create a selection and remove Porte from consideration and eliminate Plaza and Castroviejo, setting up a 2 on 3 final, likewise Belkin could have used Gesink. I guess they needed to have faith that.
Given that Gesink, Tendam, and Mollema are going so well, I'm surprised their TTT was so poor. I can't believe that Wynants, Vanmarcke, or Boom aren't great additions for a TTT, but I'm unsure of the form of Nordhaug, Leezer, or tankink, but 14th?

 

[TheBean]

EBH: Anonymous, sick maybe.

I agree with your entire evaluation other than the knock on EBH.

He's been allowed to chase stages and has comepretty close to bagging one without the benefit of a leadout man. Impressive stuff, IMO.

I think it's an indication of Sky's confidence in Froome's ability and the support the others can give him that they are willing to let EBH go solo hunting.

More interesting than the race for the overall right now is the list of riders who will contest individual stages.

Cannondale has nearly sewn up their goal for the Tour, as has Sky. Omega, Lotto, Argos, and Orica will likely try to control breaks to set up their sprinters for more stage glory. That will make it tough for opportunists to stay away from such a large and strong group of chasing teams.

Valverde vs. Contador should be an exciting race for second. If Froome cracks, they will each surely be ready to pounce on an opportunity. Each has a strong team in support.

Much to look forward to these next couple of weeks!

 

[IndianCyclist]

The only teammate required as of now will be Porte on the high mountains. The rest of them donot matter as what is required is only defending the yellow. What they are missing are one strong climber probably one of the Colombians who can swap will Porte. I think the end of this TDF will see one very tired Sky Team.

 

[TheBean]

The only teammate required as of now will be Porte on the high mountains. The rest of them donot matter as what is required is only defending the yellow. What they are missing are one strong climber probably one of the Colombians who can swap will Porte. I think the end of this TDF will see one very tired Sky Team.

Froome will need team mates to protect him from the wind in the flats, deliver bottles from the team car, possibly trade a wheel in the event of a flat, pace him back to the group after mishaps or nature breaks, etc.

He will benefit from a group of them at the front to set pace and restrict time losses to breaks, as well.

 

[PCutter]

Seems to be going around. I saw an interview with Tejay who said his numbers were below that of his training numbers and he doesn't know why. He said the heat was a factor, but that he has had great rides in the heat in the past.
He's struggling to figure out what's going on.

He's sh!t. There, I figured it out for him.

Anyone know where the Spanish armada are? Kreuziger has been great, but haven't seen anything of Paulihno, Hernandez or Noval when the hammer drops.

 

[Frosty]

If someone is going to try the same again then i think that stage 19 might be very important. Given the alpe stage beforehand its a similar scenario to the past two stages.

 

[theyoungest]

Seems to be going around. I saw an interview with Tejay who said his numbers were below that of his training numbers and he doesn't know why. He said the heat was a factor, but that he has had great rides in the heat in the past.
He's struggling to figure out what's going on.

He crashed, didn't he? He has a similar build to Gesink, crashes seem to hit those big guys pretty hard. Whereas Quintana, he just shrugs it off.

EBH crashed as well. Mollema and Contador crashed pretty hard on the first stage, Mollema crashed again right before the mountains, as did Purito. I expect all of these guys to improve as the race progresses.

To me it comes down to the top few riders and for now it appears to be Froome
daylight
Quintana, Valverde, Mollema, Tendam and Kreuziger fits in there too, but I don't know where. Then Contador. Then a host of others filling out the top 20.
With another day like today and there is only 1. Any of these 4 teams could win the Tour and should be happy to sacrifice any other team mate to do so. I'm critical of Movistar's tactics over the final 80km, but Saxo could have had Rogers help earlier to create a selection and remove Porte from consideration and eliminate Plaza and Castroviejo, setting up a 2 on 3 final, likewise Belkin could have used Gesink. I guess they needed to have faith that.
Given that Gesink, Tendam, and Mollema are going so well, I'm surprised their TTT was so poor. I can't believe that Wynants, Vanmarcke, or Boom aren't great additions for a TTT, but I'm unsure of the form of Nordhaug, Leezer, or tankink, but 14th?

Yeah that TTT by Belkin was really poor, certainly given the number of big cobbles guys they've brought. From the race reports, it seems that Boom was the big engine. Vanmarcke and Wynants are powerful guys, but they can't time trial. Mollema, Nordhaug, Ten Dam, these guys aren't great on the flat.

 

[darwin553]

I think Saxo are looking strong with Kreuziger, Rogers, Contador and to a lesser extent Roche.

Wednesday isn't going to help us much as I predict it will only muddle Saxo's plans for the team moving forward in the tour with my prediction that Kreuziger and Contador will put in similar performances but with Rogers beating both of them.

 

[saneguy]

He's sh!t. There, I figured it out for him.

Anyone know where the Spanish armada are? Kreuziger has been great, but haven't seen anything of Paulihno, Hernandez or Noval when the hammer drops.

Noval quit I thought....

DNF Benjamin Noval Gonzalez (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff

 

[del1962]

Does anyone know what happened to Kiryienka? Crash or just form.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Does anyone know what happened to Kiryienka? Crash or just form.

For me it just seems like bad form.

 

[saneguy]

For me it just seems like bad form.

Its the single biggest loss for Sky. He was good in pulling the trains. They simply overdid that on Stage 8 and now this is the price they are paying.

 

[Pricey_sky]

I'm no expert on injuries so I couldn't say if he would, however Sky will be praying that by those final mountain stages next week Thomas comes back into some kind of form.