Liège-Bastogne-Liège: October 4th, 2020

[Pantani_lives]

Almost half a year after the original date the biggest race of Francophone Belgium will take place. It's nicknamed La Doyenne because it's the oldest classic, held first in 1892. Apart from a few small changes the course remains the same as last year, when it was heavily altered. Last year's winner Jakob Fuglsang will be absent, because he's doing the Giro. For Julian Alaphilippe it will be the first race in the rainbow jersey. Rain and wind are predicted, so it might be an extra tough edition!

Climbs:

1. Côte de la Roche-en-Ardenne (182 km) [2.8 km @ 6.2%]
2. Côte de Saint-Roch (134.5 km) [1.0 km @ 11.2%]
3. Côte de Mont-le-Soie (94 km) [1.7 km @ 7.9%]
4. Côte de Wanne (86 km) [3.6 km @ 5.1%]
5. Côte de Stockeu (79 km) [1.0 km @ 12.5%]
6. Côte de Haute-Levée (73 km) [3.6 km @ 5.6%]
7. Côte du Rosier (60.5 km) [4.4 km @ 5.9%]
8. Côte du Maquisard (47 km) [2.5 km @ 5.0%]
9. Côte de la Redoute (36 km) [2.0 km @ 8.9%]
10. Côte des Forges (24 km) [1.3 km @ 7.8%]
11. Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons (14.5 km) [1.3 km @ 11.0%]

Recent winners:
2010 Alexandre Vinokourov
2011 Philippe Gilbert
2012 Maxim Iglinsky
2013 Dan Martin
2014 Simon Gerrans
2015 Alejandro Valverde
2016 Wout Poels
2017 Alejandro Valverde
2018 Bob Jungels
2019 Jakob Fuglsang

Multiple winners:
5x Eddy Merckx
4x Moreno Argentin
4x Alejandro Valverde
3x Léon Houa
3x Alphonse Schepers
3x Fred De Bruyne

 

[gerundium]

Weather forecast is not that bad. Around 10 degrees and some rain, but nothing extreme.

I don't think Julian can back up his WC win here, and i have a suspicion it might go to an outsider this time.

 

[Blanco]

Michal Kwiatkowski will win this bike race.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Richie Porte will win this bike race.

 

[repre]

Kwiato vs Hirschi for this one

 

[RedheadDane]

The real question here is obviously:

When will this thread be stickied? Will it happen before the race is actually over?

 

[gregrowlerson]

The real question here is obviously:

When will this thread be stickied? Will it happen before the race is actually over?

I am guessing that FW was stickied when it started.

About 5 minutes before it finished

 

[Anderis]

For me, Woods is the biggest favourite to be in the final selection but he will probably get beaten by someone because the last 10 kilometers are too flat for him.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Tom Dumoulin will win.

 

[Escarabajo]

Michal Kwiatkowski FTW

 

[Oliver]

Weather forecast is not that bad. Around 10 degrees and some rain, but nothing extreme.

I don't think Julian can back up his WC win here, and i have a suspicion it might go to an outsider this time.

15 degrees, some rain and very windy from south...

 

[Leinster]

15 degrees, some rain and very windy from south...

So tailwinds on the return leg? Might make it easier for attacks to get separation over the tops of the climbs.


Last year in Liege, Fuglsang made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. This year in Lombardia, Fuglsang made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. Last week in Imola, Alaphilippe made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. Fuglsang's absence notwithstanding, somebody give me a reason to suppose something different might happen on Sunday?

Also, am I alone in wishing that the new finish might see a return to somebody actually making an attack that might stick (or at least generate a break with a chance of making it to the line) on La Redoute?

 

[RedheadDane]

Last year in Liege, Fuglsang made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. This year in Lombardia, Fuglsang made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. Last week in Imola, Alaphilippe made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. Fuglsang's absence notwithstanding, somebody give me a reason to suppose something different might happen on Sunday?

Dunno if Alaphilippe making a race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15 km out would count as "something different", since he already got in on the act in Imola.

 

[Leinster]

Dunno if Alaphilippe making a race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15 km out would count as "something different", since he already got in on the act in Imola.

Well quite, that's my point. It seems the past while in the hilly one-day classics it all comes down to the last obstacle of the race. Just once I'd really like a small group to go away from further out, with a strong chase behind, and the group have to balance sprinting for the win with the chance they might be caught.

 

[Blanco]

Well quite, that's my point. It seems the past while in the hilly one-day classics it all comes down to the last obstacle of the race. Just once I'd really like a small group to go away from further out, with a strong chase behind, and the group have to balance sprinting for the win with the chance they might be caught.

Well you had small group from the top of Sormano this year...

 

[Alexandre B.]

So tailwinds on the return leg? Might make it easier for attacks to get separation over the tops of the climbs.


Last year in Liege, Fuglsang made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. This year in Lombardia, Fuglsang made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. Last week in Imola, Alaphilippe made his race-winning attack on the short, steep climb about 15km out. Fuglsang's absence notwithstanding, somebody give me a reason to suppose something different might happen on Sunday?

If the weather is miserable, Alaphilippe will likely disappoint.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Can we finish on a climb next year? Let's not turn this into a sprinters monument.

 

[Koronin]

Can we finish on a climb next year? Let's not turn this into a sprinters monument.

They have a several year contract for the current finish location.

 

[Leinster]

Can we finish on a climb next year? Let's not turn this into a sprinters monument.

It finished on a climb every year from 1992 to 2018. Most of the editions in the 2010s were bunch finishes.

Fleche Wallonne finishes on a climb. It's an uphill sprint every year.

 

[Amazinmets87]

It finished on a climb every year from 1992 to 2018. Most of the editions in the 2010s were bunch finishes.

Fleche Wallonne finishes on a climb. It's an uphill sprint every year.

I think climb then 600 meters to 1K of flat until finish is ideal for Liege. 10K of flat is too much.

 

[tobydawq]

Can we finish on a climb next year? Let's not turn this into a sprinters monument.

I don't think this post is going to win too many awards.

 

[Netserk]

Rather remove RaF and risk once in a while to have a bunch sprint. At least we would then see them go mental on Redoute!

 

[Leinster]

I think climb then 600 meters to 1K of flat until finish is ideal for Liege. 10K of flat is too much.

Flanders, Roubaix and Lombardia all have 10+km of flat, paved roads to the finish, and it doesn't do them any harm, but the Poggio is less than 5km from the finish, so all the action happens there. If the course is hard, it'll be raced hard. The climbers know they have to drop the sprinters before the top of Roche-Au-Faucons. At the old Ans finish, the climbers knew they could beat the sprinters (as long as Bala wasn't still in contention), so they could just wait until the end.

 

[tobydawq]

Rather remove RaF and risk once in a while to have a bunch sprint. At least we would then see them go mental on Redoute!

Hmm, would that necessarily be better, though? Then it'll just be a bit like Gent-Wevelgem (in a year with good weather there).

 

[Netserk]

As it is now the showdown lasts less than 5 km. Still better than the Ans sprint, but any move before RaF is dead I'm afraid (although it has to be said that we will have optimal conditions this Sunday for action before that, but I doubt it will be different to the action before Poggio).