Liquigas at Giro and Tour in 2011 - what should be their main focus?

[gregrowlerson]

The green team is one of the strongest in professional cycling - at least in grand tours. This was shown up greatly last year when they won the Giro and Vuelta.

No mean feat.

But the Giro/TDF combo will be much tougher, especially since the 2 best climbers in the world may be in each race.

Who has the better chance of success? Nibali over Contador at the Giro (assuming Alberto rides it) or Basso over A. Schleck at the Tour?

I do not have a clear opinion which is why I think it can create an interesting discussion.

Both Nibali and Basso are great climbers, but both are more strength climbers than explosive ones. Does this mean that they need a strong team around them to win? And if so, does that mean that Liquigas (is there a d in there?) should focus mainly on just one GT this year?

I think that head to head, Nibali has less chance of defeating Contador than Basso has of defeating Schleck. However, there are far more mountains in the Giro, giving more of a chance for the favourite to crack at some stage. If Contador did crack on a hellish stage, then Nibali would want to have some strong team mates around him to help him take full advantage of the situation.

If Andy is in form then I do not think that the Tour in itself is enough to crack him. So Basso will need to ride aggressively, and most likely have a strong team. For me, the best chance for Basso to destroy everyone at The Tour is stage 18. It is uphill for most of it - not surprisingly most of it is at a very high altitude. Ivan will not be able to just race hard from the start of the Galibier to crack Andy though - or to gain really significant time - but if that stage is raced hard from a long way out then anything could happen.

Thoughts?

 

[Roland Rat]

Are they mutually exclusive?

Liquigas will expect (and be expected) to be the dominant team in the Giro, where they will set up Nibali for the win. Liquigas will not expect (or be expected) to be the dominant team at the Tour, where Basso can ride on the coat-tails of Saxo and LEOPARD TREK!!!.

Leakygas have a strong enough team to support both's needs well.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

with nibali they stand no chance at this years giro so I would go for the tour completely

 

[Met de Versnelling]

I can't see Nibali winning the Giro, regardless of whether Contador rises or not, but it's important for Liquigas to put on a show, and to go all out for the Maglia Rosa, as they have GT contenders, and it's their home GT. I think Nibali could podium, and definitely could get a day or two in pink, and i hope that the team management are realistic about their goals for the Giro. I can't see how Nibali can beat Contador, Anton, maybe Rodriguez, and then the purer climbers like Jose Rujano on this parcours, it just doesn't look viable.

.With that in mind, i'm praying that they don't send Symzd to the Giro this year. Although i fully believe Basso will beat Schleck at the Tour this year, if he takes Symzd with him, then he has a domestique that will be there until the end of the climbs, and can set an absolutely hellish pace when needed, to set something up. Yeah, Shcleck's more explosive, but Basso's ability to suffer? Schleck i don't think has that yet. (Plus Ivan's the better of two dodgy TT'rs)

So:

Contador (Anton, Rujano, Rodriguez) > Nibali

Basso > Schleck

(Also, bear in mind Nibbles want's to defend his Vuelta title, which suits him alot more than the Giro this year, so they could get another GT double this season)

 

[whittashau]

People overrate Anton. He will lose too much time in the time trials.

I agree with Met de though, if liquigas keep szymd just for the Tour Basso will have a lot better chance. I doubt liquigas would send Nibali to the Giro with just Cappechi, Agnoli and Caruso for support in the mountains though

 

[movingtarget]

I think they have to go for both. Nibali was impressive in the Giro and Vuelta last year. For various reasons, Contador may not be at his best in the Giro. He showed during the last time trial in last year's TDF that he is human and he really suffered. He had an off day by his standards.

I cannot see Basso outclimbing Schleck in the TDF. I think the only dangers to Nibali are Contador and Menchov. I am not convinced that Basso will be as effective in the TDF as he was in the Giro last year. Both Liquigas riders should finish on the podium in their respective races. They should be able to produce strong teams for both although no Kiserlovski or Kreuziger this year which won't help.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

People overrate Anton. He will lose too much time in the time trials.

I agree with Met de though, if liquigas keep szymd just for the Tour Basso will have a lot better chance. I doubt liquigas would send Nibali to the Giro with just Cappechi, Agnoli and Caruso for support in the mountains though

what timetrials??

 

[Winterfold]

If Contador has Navarro and Hernandez at the Giro - then surely Smyzd will have to go to support Nibali for him to have a chance?

Then Smyzd will be knackered for the Giro when Basso will need him to deal with F Schleck and Fuglsgang...

The less chance Contador has of doing the Tour the more difficult this becomes for Liquigas - I know there is much more to Liquigas than Smyzd but the ability of the real mega-domestiques to shatter the illusions of GC pretenders, and contenders, is as important as the ability of the elite elite.

 

[theyoungest]

If Contador has Navarro and Hernandez at the Giro - then surely Smyzd will have to go to support Nibali for him to have a chance?

Then Smyzd will be knackered for the Giro when Basso will need him to deal with F Schleck and Fuglsgang...

The less chance Contador has of doing the Tour the more difficult this becomes for Liquigas - I know there is much more to Liquigas than Smyzd but the ability of the real mega-domestiques to shatter the illusions of GC pretenders, and contenders, is as important as the ability of the elite elite.

Fuglsang's performance at last year's Tour won't have struck fear into Basso. But as a team it won't matter who Liquigas bring to the Tour party, they'll almost certainly be weaker than Leopard. They really have a dream team for that race in July.

 

[whittashau]

what timetrials??

The TTT first stage and the ITT final stage. Euskaltel will lose buckets of time in the first stage while i'm sure Anton will lose a lot of time during the final time trial to most of his rivals bar Rodriguez .

 

[Ryaguas]

Who has the better chance of success? Nibali over Contador at the Giro (assuming Alberto rides it) or Basso over A. Schleck at the Tour?

Nibali beating Contador?? Good luck... right now we think that Il Squalo has an opportunity cuz He won La Vuelta and that gives a lot experience and confidence in the road and climbs but If Contador had ridden La Vuelta He could have won it so easy... Nibbs right now doesnt have what it takes to drop Contador or to beat him in a ITT...

And Basso over Andrew??? ufff is not impossible but I think that I can happen... Andrew needs to learn more things and Basso with his exp could beat him but will be hard... rly hard...

So... at the end Liquigas has to bring a very good team to Il Giro, Why? is his home race and they have to defend their title and they have to send a decent team to Le Tour to help his leader Basso... but They dont have enough team for that task... so They will send their big guns to Il Giro but Szmyd will go fresh to Le Tour... That's what Im thinking

 

[Parrulo]

Nibali beating Contador?? Good luck... right now we think that Il Squalo has an opportunity cuz He won La Vuelta and that gives a lot experience and confidence in the road and climbs but If Contador had ridden La Vuelta He could have won it so easy...

you are wrong. if contador went to the vuelta last year he would be droped in every MTF

he was already overcooked by the time the giro come so with a GT on his legs and the preparation races for the vuelta. he would be dead before the vuelta even started.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

The TTT first stage and the ITT final stage. Euskaltel will lose buckets of time in the first stage while i'm sure Anton will lose a lot of time during the final time trial to most of his rivals bar Rodriguez .

in 23 km of ttt they are not going tp lose bucketloads of time and the final flat itt is a joke

 

[Ryaguas]

you are wrong. if contador went to the vuelta last year he would be droped in every MTF

he was already overcooked by the time the giro come so with a GT on his legs and the preparation races for the vuelta. he would be dead before the vuelta even started.

But I mean if He was fresh like Nibali...

 

[Parrulo]

But I mean if He was fresh like Nibali...

but he wasn't thats like saying if anton hadn't crashed and stuff like that. its all if's. the truth is a fresh contador could be nibls but last year there would be no fresh contador for the vuelta. a non crashed anton would beat nibls, but anton can't keep himself on his bike so. . .

i think i made my point anyway onto the topic that i forgot to adress on my last post.

liquigas has hard choice imo. maybe then can evenly split the team btw giro and tour or have a stronger squad for the giro but the better domestique for the tour. cus in the giro they may need to control the race. but in the tour leopard will do it. so they only need szmyd to destroy the field after leopard has done the dirty work. and besides frank who really isn't a domestique leopard doesn't has any1 that can keep up with a szmyds like pace. so maybe they can use that to isolate the shlecks making it a fair battle.

 

[jaylew]

My early prediction: Nibali comes up short in the Giro, Basso comes up short in the Tour and both of them go to the Vuelta looking for a win...and they come up short again.

That said, Basso apparently hasn't decided on whether or not he'll defend his Giro title yet. I'm sure neither he or the team would admit it, but I'm guessing that among many other things they want to see which way the wind blows with Contador in regards to both the Giro and Tour.

 

[Met de Versnelling]

The TTT first stage and the ITT final stage. Euskaltel will lose buckets of time in the first stage while i'm sure Anton will lose a lot of time during the final time trial to most of his rivals bar Rodriguez .

Over the 13km TTT in the Vuelta, Euskie were 27 secs down on HTC who won the stage, and against the others:

Liquigas +17
Saxobank +13 - (Bear in mind, this is basically the Leopard Trek team next year, in terms of Tour team.)
Katusha +7

They beat Sky, a team lauded for they're supposed TTT strength by 1 sec, and beat Astana by 13 secs.

Even if you were to extrapolate those results out, you're not going to see Euskie lose out by more than another 15 secs to Saxo/Leopard.

I would have a look at Anton's ITT record, but i'm in the middle of watching the Dutchies beat England at the cricket.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

anton is fine itt rider, the likes of mosquera

 

[Ryaguas]

anton is fine itt rider, the likes of mosquera

Yep He is quite good the problem is his bike handling skills

 

[The Hitch]

I hope Szmyd skips the Tour and the Giro and goes for the TDP.

Liquigas should go for the Tour this time. A few top guys missing from that this could be bassos best chance. But theyve lost their other 2 gt riders and as much as i like Sylwek, most of the awesomness about liqu in the giro came from the fact that nibali and basso were on the same team. Their not doing that this year so thats 1 of liquis major advantages gone. Their other major advantage was that the 2 big rivals - Evans and Michele had crap tt teams. Their rivals this year (other than anton) arent that bad, and the ttt is shorter.

And good to see everyone is underrating Scarponi. Last year Scarponi was basically Basso - 1 minute on the Zoncolan (but better in bot tts). If you think Basso would perform here then you have to consider Michelle.

On home soil he should beat fuji Purito Squalo and Rujano(whatever the f*** his nickname is). He wont beat El Pistoelro but can take it to the Pope.

I dont think hell win but ill keep talking him up all the way up to the point that he stands at the right hand side of the great one in Turin.

 

[Met de Versnelling]

And good to see everyone is underrating Scarponi. Last year Scarponi was basically Basso - 1 minute on the Zoncolan (but better in bot tts). If you think Basso would perform here then you have to consider Michelle.

On home soil he should beat fuji Purito Squalo and Rujano(whatever the f*** his nickname is). He wont beat El Pistoelro but can take it to the Pope.

I dont think hell win but ill keep talking him up all the way up to the point that he stands at the right hand side of the great one in Turin.

Great point about Scarponi, he looked really good last year it has to be said, i certainly missed him out above, but that's because i forgot. To be honest, another reason why Nibbles won't win the Giro, Scarponi probably has the beating of him on a mountainous parcours.

 

[hfer07]

As far as Liquigas GTs options- I only see two scenarios:

* Nibali getting support for his Giro bid while Basso goes full gas for the Tour.
* Nibali & Basso team up for either the Giro or the Tour.

Having said that, I think folks here need to watch again the entire last year's Giro to accurately judge Nibali's abilities, because he was really strong regardless his commitment to work for Basso. He may not be as explosive as the likes of Contador, Purito, etc, but he's getting wise & knows when to make up time-remember stage 14 to Monte Grappa when he won the stage & gained time in the descend?

BTW the Contador dilemma comes down to what kind of shape he's going to have at the Giro-because if he's fit- then he'll go for the title & skip the Tour -which I'm inclined to believe he will.

 

[theswordsman]

Don't forget that Nibali also finished third at the Giro while helping Basso last year, and he had done zero preparation for it because he was scheduled for ATOC and the Tour de France. Pellizotti was supposed to be the other guy at the Giro. This year Nibali is focused on the Giro, and like other Italians, has already been doing recon of the stages, like the climb up Mt. Etna. He'll know the key parts of the corsa like the back of his hand by May.

The Stage 16 Time Trial that has more than four kilometers at an average of 10.3% should help the climbers offset the time for the flat TT. That's gonna be a big day.

I'm rooting for Contador, but will enjoy his duel with Nibali and others way more than anything with Schlecklet.

With Basso it's just a question of once again timing his peak perfectly while trying to do well in other Italian races.

 

[The Hitch]

Don't forget that Nibali also finished third at the Giro while helping Basso last year, and he had done zero preparation for it because he was scheduled for ATOC and the Tour de France. Pellizotti was supposed to be the other guy at the Giro. This year Nibali is focused on the Giro, and like other Italians, has already been doing recon of the stages, like the climb up Mt. Etna. He'll know the key parts of the corsa like the back of his hand by May.

The Stage 16 Time Trial that has more than four kilometers at an average of 10.3% should help the climbers offset the time for the flat TT. That's gonna be a big day.

I'm rooting for Contador, but will enjoy his duel with Nibali and others way more than anything with Schlecklet.

With Basso it's just a question of once again timing his peak perfectly while trying to do well in other Italian races.

I think Liquigas had him down as a back up for a while. They knew about Pellizoti way before we did. He didnt change last minute, he would have known he might be doing the Giro for a while. And suppose he was called up last minute. What sort of form would you expect from him? To match Basso?

And if you look at specific stages, youll find that it was a lot easier than being Bassos domestique.

For one he was launched into a 2.26 head start over scarponi and 1 30 over Cadel Evans, in the ttt alone. Those are huge figures. 2 minutes 26 seconds over Scarponi is ginormous. GT contenders are considered eliminated from the race if they lose that in the first week. Then consider Nibali ended up on the podium by 9 seconds..

Secondly as Bassos partner no one ever attacked him. Without Basso he would have been lost. He would have lost far more than the 1 minute hel ost by waiting for Basso in Strade Bianchi. Scarponi and Evans would have no interest riding tempo with him. they would try to drop him.

This year Nibali loses all his advantages. He doesnt have Basso which automatically makes staying with the heads of state twice as hard. He doesnt have such a big advantage over his competitors in the ttt, he doesnt have as long a ttt and his competitors are far


On the face of it "worked for Basso" is a nice way to make it look that Nibali had it more difficult than his competitors. But in fact he had a huge advantage over his competitors. Had either Cuddles or Scarponi been put in Nibalis position they would have taken minutes out of Vinnie.

 

[movingtarget]

Yes it was to Nibali's advantage to be on Basso's team in the Giro along with Kiserlovski, Szymd and Kreuziger. They had the strongest team by miles. Evan's and the other GC riders were worn out trying to cover every attack from Liquigas plus the hard tempo riding Basso's team displayed. I still expect Nibali to do well in the upcoming Giro without Kiserlovski and Kreuziger but they will obviously be missed.

Nibali's ride in the Vuelta was impressive. He never panicked and rode a very mature race. Even though I think the winner will come from Nibali, Menchov or Contador, I hope Anton and Scarponi are also in impressive form. It would make a for a great race. Anton should be hungry after his Vuelta disappointment. As for Sastre, he might go for stage wins and support Menchov. And for Rujano, well who knows. It's been a while since he has shown what he is capable of. If Contador wins a hard Giro and rides the TDF it will be to the advantage of Schleck and the others. Basso should stick to riding the TDF and forget the Giro. If Contador is given the opportunity to do the double I can't see him being successful in both. But I think he could win a Giro/Vuelta double again this year if he tried.