Maillot Vert: who will win it

[TheEnoculator]

I'm surprised there hasn't been a poll for this yet. Discuss.

 

[kingjr]

Sagan
Greipel
Cavendish

 

[The Blues]

As I see it Cav is the big favorite. He is undoubtedly the best flat sprinter and there will be lots of those presumably. Sagan and Greipel could win it as well, but I don't think anyone will beat Cavendish. He's not even that bad on the hills when he wants to do something (not anywhere near Sagan though) - just see one of the stages he won this Giro.

 

[Afrank]

Cav, still the fastest there is, has got a powerful team to bring him into the finish at the front and crush any hope a breakaway has, and he's climbing fantastically this year. His winning the GB champs today and the way in which he won it shows he's on form and ready.

Sagan to come 2nd, Greipel 3rd.

 

[Telmisartan]

Cav
Sagan
The rest

 

[cineteq]

Sagan should win it easily. Greipel 2nd. Cavendish will not be a factor.

 

[Inquitus]

Cavendish will not be a factor.

Indeed, I hear he's going for the mountain classification.

 

[Afrank]

Sagan should win it easily. Greipel 2nd. Cavendish will not be a factor.

Any other reason for thinking Cav won't be a factor other than blind hatred for the rider?

 

[Pricey_sky]

Indeed, I hear he's going for the mountain classification.

No, No. After his great attacking today he will be challenging for the yellow jersey

He of course will be the biggest factor in this green jersey battle. He seems better than ever and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't take at least 5 stage wins.

1. Cav
2. Sagan
3. Greipel

 

[TheEnoculator]

Cav is climbing better, but Sagan is even better. On the rolling stages, Sagan might finish ahead of Cav and get more points that way.

 

[cineteq]

Any other reason for thinking Cav won't be a factor other than blind hatred for the rider?

Not blind hatred. He's not the rider he once was, as simple as that. Look who's barely beating this year.

PS: Wow, I'm the only vote for Sagan => Am I the only one who's not a sheep here?

 

[Jericho]

To me Cavendish is a strong favorite. Sagan's a decent sprinter, but he's not an elite guy. He needs some non-flat finishes to really excel. He got those in last year's Tour. They're not in this years. I wasn't sure how much Cav would be into the Tour last year with the Olympics. Don't think that was a big factor, but he's clearly all in with a team behind him to enforce that. I think he has to crash out to not win it. Then comes Sagan. Then comes the field.

 

[Tigerion]

I think Sagan will do it. He will go in with the ambition of getting the green.
Cav will go in with the ambition of winning stages. i think in the end it will come down to the different focus from the start

 

[nick101]

I have no clue atm, except i think it'll be very close unless one crashes out. Both are looking very strong - sagan won a mountain stage at the tds while cav won a reasonably hilly british champs (cav is climbing well also)
Cav will most likely win 6+ stages and pick up lots of intermediate sprints.
Whereas sagan will probably podium on each stage cav wins and also on those intermediate sprints. Both have teams based entirely around them. The only thing with sagan is that he can get into breaks on stages that are too mountainous for OPQS to stop him and pick up intermediate sprints there. Sagan has the potential to not only neutralize the effect of cav finishing ahead of him on the flat stages but gain more points. For me it depends on how many points sagan picks up on those stages and how consistent he is on the flat sprint stages. If he isn't able to do that, cav will easily win, if he is he will win by a medium to small margin. I also noticed that intermediate sprints on mountain stages are worth much less

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Cav easily.

Sagan might make the competition somewhat interesting for a while, but it will fizzle out.

 

[Ruby United]

Sagan will gain so many extra points on those hilly stages where he can contest the intermediate and maybe finish but five/six stage wins for cav will seal it.

 

[SKSemtex]

Heart says Sagan but Cav is incredibly excellent these days. If he takes also stage 2 the fight is over.

However if Sagan gets the full house in stage 2&3 and Cav "nada, zero, nichts" we might have some nice green jersey fight till the Champ Elysee.

 

[tomorrow]

well, before yesterday, I'd say the odds were slightly on sagans side, however after yesterdays performance of Cav, i'd say it's fifty fifty. If nothing else, it should be a thrilling fight to watch. Let's hope, it will not be decided by some crash, unfair conduct(like last year by Goss), injury or illness.

 

[Gubby Allen]

Sagan by about 3 stages out.

 

[del1962]

While I wan't Cav to win it, I think Sagan is more likely

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I think there are enough flat stages for Cav to take the advantadge over Sagan. Last year Sagan could take it because Cav had no train so he underperformed in a few flat stages and Sagan had a few uphill finish that he could win.

I'd say it's possible for Sagan to win it, if he also goes in breakes a lot to get intermediate sprints and if he climbs like he did in that mountain in Suisse he won, while also contending every flat sprint for 3rd or something. It might be possible, but it will definitely ask a lot of him. I hope he tries though, it will be an entertaining fight for Green in that case and if he pulls it off he more than deserves the maillot vert.

 

[theyoungest]

Cav. Seems to be climbing really well, and hasn't lost his speed. Sagan climbs fantastically of course, but the problem is that the stages where he has the upper hand over Cav are the same stages where half of France wants to be in the breakaway for the win. And there aren't that many to begin with.

 

[Boardslide]

Cav, although it will be close I believe Cav will be in the mix for intermediates as much as Sagan provided a big break doesn't get away as a large portion of intermediate sprints come before any major climbs therefore enabling Cav to stay in contention. Also I think this year it will be more difficult for Sagan to get into any breaks as the sprinters teams and especially OPQS will chase down anything with him in it, making it more difficult for a break to form early. In time other riders will just tell him to get lost.

 

[sienna]

Sagan would have to scrounge a lot of points out on the road.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Sagan will score at the finish on stages 2, 3, 7 and 14 where cav is unlikely or definitely won't score. That is a hell of a lot of points for Cav to catch up on. It will be close.