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Milan Time Trial time gap projections

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Armchair Cyclist

Armchair Cyclist

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Mar 22, 2010
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It is not certain that Dumoulin will win, but whatever happens in the remaining mountainous stages is only ultimately only going to define the time gaps going into the final stage time trial.

Let's imagine it in reverse, as though the time trial were before these last two mountainous stages, and let's imagine that (although the course is different and the condition of the riders is different) time gaps are in proportion to those on stage 10. The Milan stage is to all intents and purposes 3/4 of the length of the Montefalco stage, so let's start the calculations of possibilities from that proportion (1/4 seconds rounded down, 1/2 and 3/4 rounded up).

Name current gap + 3/4 of stage 10 = deficit

Quintana: 0:31 + 2:09 = 2:40
Nibali: 1:12+ 1:32 = 2:43
Pinot: 1:36 + 2:01 = 3:37
Zakarin: 1:58 + 1:45 = 3:43
Pozzovivo: 2:07 + 2:17 = 4:14
Mollema: 3:17 + 1:42 = 4:59
Kruijswijk: 5:48 + 2:01 = 7:49
Yates: 7:06 + 2:00 = 9:06
Jungels: 7:34 + 0:42 = 8:16
Formolo: 7:59 + 3:03 = 11:02

I can't imagine (barring disaster) anyone other than the first 4 on this list taking places 2 to 5 at the end of the race, but are these about right for the stage 21 gaps? What think you?
 
D

deValtos

Nov 29, 2010
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You're taking a proportion based on the length of the TT's whereas I think it would be more accurate based on time. The first TT was more rolling and had a net gain of height in the overall distance, the 2nd TT is the opposite. This TT could take 33 (even high 32's) mins depending on the wind whereas Dumo did over 50 mins and Quintana over 53 mins on the earlier TT. 3/5 may be a better target than 4/5 for example (or even less).

Even the journalists I've heard from are so focused on the distance and ignoring the time aspect. The gaps could be less than people think.
 
jaylew

jaylew

Mar 19, 2009
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Re:

deValtos said:
You're taking a proportion based on the length of the TT's whereas I think it would be more accurate based on time. The first TT was more rolling and had a net gain of height in the overall distance, the 2nd TT is the opposite. This TT could take 33 (even high 32's) mins depending on the wind whereas Dumo did over 50 mins and Quintana over 53 mins on the earlier TT. 3/5 may be a better target than 4/5 for example (or even less).

Even the journalists I've heard from are so focused on the distance and ignoring the time aspect. The gaps could be less than people think.
Click to expand...
This. Time differences won't be as much as many people are thinking. Dumo to put between 30 and 1:30 on Nairo, Pinot, and Nibali. Not sure how Zaka will go.
 
SafeBet

SafeBet

Sep 2, 2011
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Recovery will play a major role in this ITT. It's too early to call the gaps. Generally speaking, whoever performs well in these next two mountain stages should also do a good TT. Dumoulin will likely win it no matter what, but it could be closer than we expect.
 
SeriousSam

SeriousSam

Aug 31, 2012
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Has anyone ever analysed how stable the gaps are in GTs with multiple ITTs that aren't too dissimilar? How well does the first ITT predict the results of a second?
 
SafeBet

SafeBet

Sep 2, 2011
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Re:

SeriousSam said:
Has anyone ever analysed how stable the gaps are in GTs with multiple ITTs that aren't too dissimilar? How well does the first ITT predict the results of a second?
Click to expand...
That would make for a very interesting study. Unfortunately the sample would be very small in the last few years. I checkd TdF 2012 for a reference (only showing riders in the final top10).

Stage 9 (41,5km ITT)

Wiggo
Froome 35"
TJVG 1'06"
Evans 1'43"
Nibali 2'07"
Kloden 2'09"
Brajkovic 2'26"
Van den Broeck 3'09"
Pinot 5'12"
Rolland 5'34"

Stage 19 (53,5 km ITT)
Wiggo
Froome 1'16"
TJVG 2'34"
Nibali 3'38"
Kloden 3'49"
Van den Broeck 4'22"
Pinot 5'31"
Brajkovic 5'38"
Evans 5'54"
Rolland 6'14"


Results show consistency, with the notable execption of Evans who was fading badly at the end.
 
Armchair Cyclist

Armchair Cyclist

Moderator
Mar 22, 2010
13,723
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So here is your chance to post your colours to the mast:

Copy and paste, and add your predicted gaps to Dumoulin (if you really think any of these will beat TD, make it a negative score)

Quintana: 0:00 + =
Nibali: 0:39 + =
Pinot: 0:43 + =
Dumoulin: 0:53 + 0:00 = 0:53
Zakarin: 1:15 + =


My try:
Quintana: 0:00 + 1:20 = 1:20
Nibali: 0:39 + 0:55 = 1:34
Pinot: 0:43 + 0:40 = 1:23
Dumoulin: 0:53 + 0:00 = 0:53
Zakarin: 1:15 + 0:30 = 1:45

Giving
1) Dumoulin
2) Quintana @ 0:27
3) Pinot @ 0:30
4) Nibali @ 0:41
5) Zakarin @ 0:52
 
SafeBet

SafeBet

Sep 2, 2011
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Tonton said:
I hope you're right, guys :) .
Click to expand...
I think whatever happens Pinot has proven he belongs in the top tier of riders (ok, Froome excluded). This was a high level Giro d'Italia with a strong field, and he was consistent through three weeks, coming back from a couple of bad days as only good GT riders can do.
 
Tonton

Tonton

May 17, 2013
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SafeBet said:
Tonton said:
I hope you're right, guys :) .
Click to expand...
I think whatever happens Pinot has proven he belongs in the top tier of riders (ok, Froome excluded). This was a high level Giro d'Italia with a strong field, and he was consistent through three weeks, coming back from a couple of bad days as only good GT riders can do.
Click to expand...
I completely agree with your statement. Whatever happens happens: as the #1 fanboy of Il Grandissimo Tibopino, I wouldn't mind a big cherry and icing on the cake, but as it is, it's a big cake, a great cake, and it is sweet :) .
 
lenric

lenric

May 19, 2014
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I'm not capable of predicting time differences such as "36 seconds", or "47 seconds". And I'm not keen on trying to do it either.

Imo, the final GC will be:

1 - TD.
2 - Nibali.
3 - Pinot.
4 - Quintana/Zaka.
5 - Zaka/Quintana.
 
J

Jancouver

Mar 14, 2009
3,436
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I hope TD, Pinot, and Zakarin will have a great TT and finish the GC in that order. Unfortunately, I know the old dog Nibali knows how to "prepare" for these situations, therefore, it is likely he will end up 2nd or even win the GT.

Either way, I don't want Quintana on the podium as other than consistency, he has shown very little. Sure, he can climb, but his TT is just pathetic. His team was super strong, but he is an incomplete rider and does not deserve to win a GT of this caliber.

Wishlist
1. TD
2. Pinot
3. Zakarin
4. Quintana
5. Nibali

Reality
1. TD
2. Nib
3. Pinot
4. Quintana
5. Zakarin
 
D

DanielSong39

Jul 15, 2016
2,152
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Quintana: 0:00 + 2:20 = 2:20
Nibali: 0:39 + 1:40= 2:19
Pinot: 0:43 + 1:25 = 2:08
Dumoulin: 0:53 + 0:00 = 0:53
Zakarin: 1:15 + 1:50 = 3:05
Pozzovivo: 1:30 + 2:40 = 4:10

Total:
1. Dumoulin 0:00
2. Pinot 1:15
3. Nibali 1:26
4. Quintana 1:27
5. Zakarin 2:12
6. Pozzovivo 3:17
 
Squire

Squire

Dec 28, 2010
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Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Eurosport's Ashley House on twitter:
Took me a few hrs,but analysing recent flat-ish TT data,stats predict #Giro100 GC:
Pinot wins
TD +1"
VN +2"
NQ +20"
IZ +1'44"
DP +2'29"
https://t.co/47vs4wpAmh

His calculations in the link
Click to expand...
Interesting. Especially the fact that Dumoulin's time per km hasn't been that much better than Nibali or Pinot.

But it will of course not mean anything for the result today.
 
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