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Millar says Wiggo Top 5 TDF...in other words...

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Gloin22

Apr 10, 2011
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Wiggo itself said he is not gonna win in Sky interview. Top 10 is his target and maybe Top 5 if he rides the race well ;)
 
Bielers

Bielers

Apr 24, 2011
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To be fair, he says that top 10 is a very good possibility and top 5 could happen if he is very good. Not a wildly outrageous thing to say, I think.

Of course, no one thinks Wiggins can win it (including, probably, Wiggins himself).
 
Parrulo

Parrulo

Aug 5, 2010
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maltiv said:
Of course he can't win on this course and he knows that. He'll need 100 km+ of ITT and no Contador there to be able to do so.
Click to expand...

and no andy and no samu and no basso and no gesink and no VdB2 and no nibali and no scarponi and so on.

with a field like that maybe he can win, MAYBE!!
 
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kurtinsc

Nov 17, 2009
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Parrulo said:
and no andy and no samu and no basso and no gesink and no VdB2 and no nibali and no scarponi and so on.

with a field like that maybe he can win, MAYBE!!
Click to expand...

With 100+ km of ITT and not too many climbs that aren't suited to a "diesel" climber, he'd have a shot against all the ones you listed.

Menchov would probably be the biggest problem of the remaining guys sans-Contador on a ITT-heavy GC course. Last year (when I don't think Wiggins form was that great) he was 20 seconds ahead of Menchov, 2:20 ahead of Sanchez, 2:40 ahead of Schleck, 3:40 ahead of VDB2 and 5 minutes ahead of Gesink in a 50km ITT.

If you give Wiggins 10 minutes on Gesink, 5:20 on Schleck, 7:20 on VDB2 and 4:40 on Sanchez before the climbing... then I think he'd have a shot on many courses.

Menchov might be an issue though. 40 seconds probably wouldn't be enough for an in-form Menchov.
 
Parrulo

Parrulo

Aug 5, 2010
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kurtinsc said:
With 100+ km of ITT and not too many climbs that aren't suited to a "diesel" climber, he'd have a shot against all the ones you listed.

Menchov would probably be the biggest problem of the remaining guys sans-Contador on a ITT-heavy GC course. Last year (when I don't think Wiggins form was that great) he was 20 seconds ahead of Menchov, 2:20 ahead of Sanchez, 2:40 ahead of Schleck, 3:40 ahead of VDB2 and 5 minutes ahead of Gesink in a 50km ITT.

If you give Wiggins 10 minutes on Gesink, 5:20 on Schleck, 7:20 on VDB2 and 4:40 on Sanchez before the climbing... then I think he'd have a shot on many courses.

Menchov might be an issue though. 40 seconds probably wouldn't be enough for an in-form Menchov.
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you are forgetting that wiggins departed earlier when there wasn't such a strong head wind as there was for the last guys. even on diesel climbs those guys can drop wiggins. lets not start the wiggins hype express just because he won the dauphine. 3 weeks are a totally different thing. on the dauphine wiggins only had to defend his jersey on 2 mountain stages and on the second one he was already showing signs of cracking
 
ferryman

ferryman

Dec 30, 2009
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Always good to hear from Robert:)

“He didn't like the accelerations when the attacks came..."

If Brad didn't like those skirmishes he is so not going to like what Bertie and the Schlecks are going to bring to the party:rolleyes
 
Spine Concept

Spine Concept

Apr 28, 2010
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Parrulo said:
you are forgetting that wiggins departed earlier when there wasn't such a strong head wind as there was for the last guys. even on diesel climbs those guys can drop wiggins. lets not start the wiggins hype express just because he won the dauphine. 3 weeks are a totally different thing. on the dauphine wiggins only had to defend his jersey on 2 mountain stages and on the second one he was already showing signs of cracking
Click to expand...

This. Furthermore, the above is an extremely tailored down parcours which is highly unlikely to be a reality.
 
Parrulo

Parrulo

Aug 5, 2010
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i present to you the 2012 tour.

stage 1: _________________________(prologue)
stage 2:__________________________________________________________(100k ITT)
stage 3:______________________A_____A________________________(queen stage with with 2 4th category climbs 100k from the finish)
stage 4:______________________________________________________(50k itt)
rest are cav stages

ok wiggins will win the 2012 tour.

oh wait will cancellara ride?
 
jobiwan

jobiwan

Jul 28, 2010
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Parrulo said:
i present to you the 2012 tour.

stage 1: _________________________(prologue)
stage 2:__________________________________________________________(100k ITT)
stage 3:______________________A_____A________________________(queen stage with with 2 4th category climbs 100k from the finish)
stage 4:______________________________________________________(50k itt)
rest are cav stages

ok wiggins will win the 2012 tour.

oh wait will cancellara ride?
Click to expand...

He'll win by 23 minutes he if rides that Tour.
 
K

kurtinsc

Nov 17, 2009
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Parrulo said:
you are forgetting that wiggins departed earlier when there wasn't such a strong head wind as there was for the last guys. even on diesel climbs those guys can drop wiggins. lets not start the wiggins hype express just because he won the dauphine. 3 weeks are a totally different thing. on the dauphine wiggins only had to defend his jersey on 2 mountain stages and on the second one he was already showing signs of cracking
Click to expand...

I'm not saying he's some great climber. But I still say if there was a course like 2009 except 120km of ITT instead of 55 and flat ITT's instead of hilly... without Contador there he'd have a shot. I think with that kind of ITT distance and parcours, he would be over 5 minutes up on Andy, Gesink, VDB2, etc. He was 2:30 over the nearest of that Group at the D-L 42km ITT.

Could he hold on? I have no idea. But he'd have a shot with a 5 minute lead through ITT's and light parcours.
 
K

kurtinsc

Nov 17, 2009
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Spine Concept said:
This. Furthermore, the above is an extremely tailored down parcours which is highly unlikely to be a reality.
Click to expand...

I'm basically talking about 2009 parcours except with 1997 time trial distances. Doubt we'll ever get to that kind of ITT length again, but I don't think the stretch is as huge as some think.

And forgetting about the whole Wiggins thing, I do think we need to have more ITT distance. I'm a fan of a 40-60 km flat ITT, a 20-40 km hilly/mountain ITT and a less then 10km prologue in every tour. 65-110 km of ITT distance in every tour isn't too much to ask.
 
Parrulo

Parrulo

Aug 5, 2010
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kurtinsc said:
I'm not saying he's some great climber. But I still say if there was a course like 2009 except 120km of ITT instead of 55 and flat ITT's instead of hilly... without Contador there he'd have a shot. I think with that kind of ITT distance and parcours, he would be over 5 minutes up on Andy, Gesink, VDB2, etc. He was 2:30 over the nearest of that Group at the D-L.

Could he hold on? I have no idea. But he'd have a shot with a 5 minute lead through ITT's and light parcours.
Click to expand...

what would be the point of a GT with easy parcours? 2009 was a freak tour. i doubt the organization will make the same mistake again, as 2010 was harder then 2009 and 2011 will be harder then 2010. still should be a bit harder imo with a decent amount of itt.
 
K

kurtinsc

Nov 17, 2009
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Parrulo said:
what would be the point of a GT with easy parcours? 2009 was a freak tour. i doubt the organization will make the same mistake again, as 2010 was harder then 2009 and 2011 will be harder then 2010. still should be a bit harder imo with a decent amount of itt.
Click to expand...

I'm not in favor of easier parcours... but they have happened. I agree... give me a decent amount of hard climbs but closer to 80-120 km of ITT each year. One prologue, one long flat ITT and one shorter hilly/mountainous ITT should be par for the course.
 
Spine Concept

Spine Concept

Apr 28, 2010
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kurtinsc said:
I'm basically talking about 2009 parcours except with 1997 time trial distances. Doubt we'll ever get to that kind of ITT length again, but I don't think the stretch is as huge as some think.

And forgetting about the whole Wiggins thing, I do think we need to have more ITT distance. I'm a fan of a 40-60 km flat ITT, a 20-40 km hilly/mountain ITT and a less then 10km prologue in every tour. 65-110 km of ITT distance in every tour isn't too much to ask.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't mind having more ITT kilometers. However, there is no point in increasing that at the expense of climbing. Wiggins needs to earn it, whereas you want to hand it to him. With Schleck, S. Sanchez (and Contador) in the race, 5 minutes or more are well within reach if they really gave it a go.
 
Spine Concept

Spine Concept

Apr 28, 2010
1,384
372
11,180
jens_attacks said:
top 5 it might happen but after he said about alberto,there is no way in hell i would support bradley.i will hate him just like in 2009 after he talked shiit about il killer.
Click to expand...

Even if Contador were not to race I'd still place him outside of the top 5. He will have to prove me wrong in July, we'll see.
 
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