- Jun 22, 2009
On such a high! I've been saying all season what a monster Alf Morris is. How to get to sleep now.....?
Plus, defensive leader Brian Urlacher missed several games late in the season. I agree with you, bad firing. I talked with Brock once about the hiring/firing that goes on in the NFL (and college) and why Norv Turner wasn't canned last year, or the year before and he said it's because they didn't have anyone lined up they knew they could get who was better. So, either the Bears are pretty sure they have a replacement in mind, or they definitely made a knee-jerk, emotional decision. Smith could very well land somewhere else as a HC.Merckx index said:...I think Chicago made a big mistake terminating Lovie Smith. The Bears went 10-6, despite losing Cutler for a couple of key games, and missed the playoffs only because of an arbitrary tie-breaker.
Not likely. I wrote about Thomas before, after the draft. You may recall I lived in Oregon forever, and followed the Ducks a lot. Thomas left for the NFL because his starting QB job was in jeopardy. He could have had a weaker senior season than his junior season. He also thought because he put up good numbers he could be the next Cam Newton. When Darron was at Oregon his numbers were inflated because he was throwing to a lot of wide open receivers. I don't see him as an NFL QB. Not even a backup. The other problem is that he's maybe not the shiniest apple on the tree. He made several bone headed mistakes off the field that hurt his stock as well. At best, I see Chip taking him as a 3rd string, or possibly a practice squad QB for his new NFL team. That's possible.So here is a wild-a— suggestion. Suppose Kelly takes the job in Arizona (or less likely, another team looking for a QB, KC), and his former Oregon star Darron Thomas gives him a call.
I don't buy it. Well, mostly don't buy it. They would however score some. As Brock told me the NFL play is so much faster, and the line match-ups the NFL players would beat the college players every play. The defensive linemen and linebackers would be in the backfield every play very quickly, and plug every hole very quickly. He said if the worst NFL team played the best college team the game would still be one of those 56-3 games, with the NFL team coasting in the second half even. So maybe the Ducks would score more, as they are so fast, and the NFL guys would tire. But the Ducks could not stop the NFL offense, at all, and would still lose by something like 56-23. Brock also said don't bring up the old 70's NFL vs. College games. Those were often all-stars and the NFL guys played them like they were the pro-bowl. No blitzing, trying to not get hurt, etc.Jeff Fisher, not exactly a radical among NFL coaches, once surmised that if Oregon played in the NFL, defenses would not be able to stop them).
I'm speechless. These are my picks too, though I'm in two minds about Cincy.ChrisE said:Who is Brock?
Anyway, that Seattle bandwagon is getting pretty big. No thanks, I'll walk.
Wash over Seattle
GB over Minn
Houston over Cincy
Balt over Indy
I am iffy about Houston as well as I noted upthread. It wouldn't surprise me to see them get blown out. That is what I am actually hoping for....the best talk show host in town yesterday was saying Kubiak's job should be evaluated if they get blown out by Cincy after this collapse at the end of the season. Should and could are two entirely different words. McNair would probably give him an extension and raise.Amsterhammer said:I'm speechless. These are my picks too, though I'm in two minds about Cincy.
Certainly, any analysis of the relative strengths of the Hawks and Skins would seem to favor the Hawks, but hell, we're on a roll, Fedex will be rocking, and I'm not about to abandon my team, even if my pick represents more hope than expectation.
I think the Packers will produce the traditional Lambeau winter performance and take care of business this time, and I think that the mere sight of 'Colts' playing in Balmer will unleash extra Ravens power and determination. The return of Ray Lewis may also be a factor.
I agree with almost all of that. The only part I don't understand yet is whether Rex should have been ousted. As I mentioned earlier, I was curious about the Tannenbaum firing. That begged some questions, like 1) who had the power, Rex or Tanne? 2) Was Rex in full agreement bringing in Tebow, or is that something that was forced on Rex by Tanne? (If forced on Rex, then that would explain some of Rex's decisions on who to start at QB, and would also explain why Rex is not keeping Tebow.)Alpe d'Huez said:I'll be surprised if Josh McDaniels goes anywhere. He was too emotional and too much of a loose cannon in Denver. Has he matured enough? He has a family now, so maybe. But he also recently planted that family in the Boston area. I'm still thinking that in 3-5 years Belicheck (and Brady) will call it quits, and McDaniels will be the logical choice to take over.
Andy Reid will get picked up, IF he wants to. I do wonder if he won't take a year or two off.
Lovie Smith could have a job within days. There have already been Bears players very vocal about his firing, and this could come back to haunt the team. And this is why I respect the Steelers so much. They just had a "bad" year, 8-8, but considering how beat up they were. But there is no possible way the Rooney family would fire Mike Tomlin. It's not even part of any discussion. The Steelers nurture their coaches, work with them, they don't fire them. Three coaches in 40+ years, all of them with rings.
Best teams to go to right now I think would be Chicago and San Diego. Lots of talent, and established QB's in place. I'd say KC if you're going to build, as they have a lot of talent and the #1 pick.
The one coach who should have been fired however was Rex Ryan. What a disaster of a team the Jets are.
FoxxyBrown1111 said:Thank you that this is enough for you to fit the bet. It was a tight race...
Here is my yearly complete Playoff preview (after the short version of yesterday)
+ finished 1st as usual in Pass-D (4,87 Y/PP allowed). Performed better than the famous Bears in 84,85 and 86;
finished 1st in the killer Stat of them all: Y/PP-Difference (6,98 on Offense = 9th and as said 4,87 = 1st in Defense; that makes it + 2,11)
- Scoring-Offense. They simply score to less points (21st in the NFL)
I still hope they won´t win the SB. If happening, expect wins like 20-10, 16-13, 10-7 and 17-10. After all the old song of "Defense wins championships" will appear and the criminal once again will be hailed as "Big Ben". Oh no!
+ Pass-O (7,89 Y/PP = 2nd in NFL)
- The D (7,14 Y/PP = 29th). Thus, Brady has to be great in every game. I still hope they make it. Scores like 38-35, 35-27 and 44-41 will come. That would be great. Pats go Pats!
+ Besides all the injuries they are very good, b/c the Pass-D (2nd in Y/PP at 5,21) keeps the games close for Yates or even Delhomme. They´ll go far.
- The injuries...
+ 3rd best Pass D (5,39 Y/PP). As usual it´s the D that brings them in the playoffs.
- It seems BAL has the same problem as CHI: They can´t draft QB´s. Flacco isn´t the deal. I love his arm strenght, but after that it´s all inconsistent year after year (19th in NFL in Y/PP w/a 5,93 Y/PP).
+ 4th best Pass D (5,8 Y/PP)
- Pass-O (17th w/a 5,96 Y/PP)
- They are the Seahawks of 2011. This team don´t belong into the playoffs. They get out-scored, out-passed and depend on pure luck when winning. I hope for one more win like this (vs. PIT), but it´s unrealstic to think it will happen.... I got caught in the Tebow-Hype and made one of the stupidest bets of all time (not here at cycnews, but in "my" NFL-Sports-Bar after too many beers).
+ 3rd best Pass O (7,79 Y/PP). Peyton is the coach of the year. He preaches balance to please the mainstream, but every year he rightfully goes pass wacky. That´s smart. A nice by-product: Surprsingly finished 4th (!!) in rushing offense (4,94 Y/R). It´s the pass that sets up the run (if you wan´t to win. May Norv the Smurf will find out when he is 80). Not the other way around.
I rank NO over GB, b/c they at least field a average Pass D (16th w/a 6,31 Y/PP allowed), thus allow to have Brees one average game. Something Brady and Rodgers can´t afford to have. But history shows that every great QB has some so so days...
- as mentioned the D has some weak spots
+ Best Pass O (8,3 Y/PP). They seem unstoppable. I hope they meet NO for the greatest ever NFC Championship-Game... BTW, that was my prediction after i saw those teams in Week one, as everyone might remember (i am not sure if i posted it here, but made that bold prediction in the Bar at least. I couldn´t believe this clubs were putting on the greatest precise passing show i ever saw between two teams)
- Pass D (30th w/a 7,2 Y/PP). They can´t stop anybody. All the Int´s hide this weakness. But turnovers are random or come late when teams play the desperation mode. So you can´t count on them in tight games. Thus, GB is in big time trouble. Every SB-Winner needed at least a average Pass D (if fielding a good Pass O) or Pass O (if fielding a good Pass D).
+ 4th best (!!) Pass O (7,67 Y/PP) in spite of little Sister is playing at QB. I saw them a couple of times. It seems the OL gives the QB 10 seconds to find the open receiver. I just wonder if a good QB would be under center. They could put up numbers like GB, NO and NE.
- Pass D (20th at 6,41 Y/PP) and the QB... They´ll need the same luck as in 2007 to win the SB.
+ Good in Pass O (12th) and Pass D (8th), thus being 8th in Y/PP-Difference (+ 0,92)
- 30th in run defense (5,0 Y/R). OTOH, it don´t really matter... The problem is, they are very good, but not great in at least one aspect of the game. OK maybe the coach is great in his Ditka-Like-Behavior (BTW, click on this once in a life time interview:
and a close 2nd:
+ They win games, besides not being very good. The same as in 2010. That must have something to do with the coach. He´s great. He has guts (just remember his 4th down call vs. NO. That showed the players once more his winning attitude. Since then they went 5-2 !), something Norv don´t possess.
- as said, they are an just average talented team
+ They somehow managed to win 13 games. One might think that has something to do with the best NFL-Run-D (3,5 Y/R allowed). OTOH, history shows that a effiecient Run O or Run D is irrelevant for professional championship caliber football. If all, may the Pass D (9th w/a 5,95 Y/PP) helped them more than their Run D. I don´t know. I haven´t seen them playing...
- Pass O (20th in the NFL w/a 5,92 Y/PP, thus the worst of all playoff teams. I don´t count the Broncos with a non winning record as a true playoff team). Actually the 49ers are the only playoff team w/a negativ Y/PP Differential. Only three such teams won a SB:
the lucky 2007-Giants, the tuck rule cheaters (aka NE Patriots of 2001) and the dull 2000-Ravens . That´s it, only 3 of 45 champions. So it´s likely the 49ers will be a one and done team. They are like the 2010 Falcons. Sorry for all SF-Fans. Their record hides some true weaknesses....
As every year, the efficiency numbers show where the success comes from:
Y/PP-Difference is number one. On average all playoff teams (inclusive the Broncos!) ranked 9,4. The perfect average would be 6,5 (count 1+2+3+4...+12 divided by 12). It just shows how tight success is correlated with a combination of a good Pass O and a good Pass D or being so great on one side of the (passing) ball that it can hide the weakness on the other side (see GB and NE).
2. Y/PP-Offense (average rank is 11,4)
3. Y/PP-Defense (13,5)
4. Y/R-Defense (15,9)
5. Y/R-Difference (16,6 and thus worse than the average NFL-Rank, which is 16,5)
6. Y/R-Offense (16,9)
My picks for the weekend:
CIN 13, HOU 21
DET 24, NO 38
ATL 20, NYG 24
PIT 20, DEN 10
AFC-Final: PIT over HOU
NFC-Final: NO over GB
SB: NO over PIT
Enjoy the post season, Cheers,
Martz fired as OC
FoxxyBrown1111 said:Indy...Their game plan to win football games is written on the backside of the starting Quarterbacks game shirt. .