We shall see...after he wins the Green Jersey, c'est vrai?
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It's not gonna happen. Maybe he be close for one climb. But that's it. Multiple big climbs is way too much. It's not even purely weight. It's also having fast twitch fiber. And if you drop a lot of weight below your natural weight, then your watts suffer and your recovery suffers.
Wout has mega watts! I hope he never gets as skinny and weak as Dumoulin.
Tell that to Wiggins and Thomas.
But yeah, I agree about the fibre type distribution. It's a bit trainable in theory, but I find it quite hard to believe that it can be done.
But he has gone top 20 in the Tour without trying. What would his ceiling be? Top 10 should be doable, I think, but not much more (and yes, I know that the number one place is an element of the set "top 10").
I don't doubt that Wout has plenty of slow-twitch fibers as well. How else could he generate huge wattage for almost an hour during long TTs? It's more about natural weight, which is pretty large in his case and wattage doesn't grow linearly with weight.
Van Aert weighing 78 was during winter (CX) 4 years ago when he was at his heaviest. I'm confident his summer TDF weight has been considerably lower for the past 3 years. Dumoulin won the Giro with 71kg.
He has always been more of a sustained effort guy, since he was young. His sprint achievements are a lot more surprising to me than his TT efforts.
He has always been more of a sustained effort guy, since he was young. His sprint achievements are a lot more surprising to me than his TT efforts.
I feel like going for GC would be a waste of his talents considering he can rack up wins on almost any stage. Heck he could win points and KOM in the same year with the proper support.
Points jersey ranks above KOM jersey.
19 race days
16x top 10
14x podium
6x win
All of them coming in WT races. Up there with 2016 Sagan. Just looking at the numbers even slightly better but Sagan managed to do what WVA couldn´t. Won a monument.
16x top 10
14x podium
6x win
All of them coming in WT races. Up there with 2016 Sagan. Just looking at the numbers even slightly better but Sagan managed to do what WVA couldn´t. Won a monument.
Van Aert is an absolutely insane rider I didn't watch riders like Mertens, Kelly or Jalabert but since the 2000s I don't know any rider with his versatility and consistency. The two last stages, especially the last climb, should be hard enough for him to win the overall but its not actually impossible that he wins the Dauphiné if barely anyone attacks
In true Van Aert fashion, he'd win like 5 PN/TAs/Itzulias and get 3 2nd places in GTs without ever winning one.
Wout can perform well on any single climb if he goes 100% and is in top form. Good examples are Prati di Tivo at last year's Tirreno (he lost 40s to Pog, who had great numbers) or Mikuni pass at the Olympics. However these two stages with multiple climbs could take their toll at the end and he can lose more time in the last few km on Sunday. I wouldn't put Dauphine victory out of his reach but it may well be taken away from him literally in last minutes of the race.
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Still hasn't won an RVV or PR - the two races his career will be defined by. Stage wins at TDF prep races with a superior team and minimal competition won't be remembered. Let's see how he fares against MVDP in a few weeks. My guess is not too well.
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Bonimenier
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I reckon he will do better than Van der Poel in the Giro who only managed to get 1 stage win against a field where Girmay, who unfortunately had to abandon halfway through, was his only serious opposition.
Wout definitely benefits from the professionalism of JV, but straight up, on equal form, he can't deal with MVDP.
Did you really just post a video of a race where Van Aert won the same amount of stages as Van der Poel, but on top of that, actually finished 2nd (behind only Pogacar) in GC over an actual mountain climb, as proof that Van der Poel is superior? While Van der Poel didn't have to go all out every day in GC. Not to mention the fact that he won his second stage because they actually let him go since he was no threat in GC, and still he nearly managed to lose that stage. I hope you aren't a lawyer because all your clients would be doing jailtime, even if they were innocent.
But winning stages in the Tour especially in last year's fashion will be remembered. Just like a few of the classics he won and he still has time to win RVV or PR.
About the Tour, even if Van Aert loses in a straight fight against MVDP in the hilltop finishes on stages 6 and 8, he could still win other stages, dress in yellow in the first days and win the green jersey all things that I don't believe Van der Poel can
That race must be about the worst example you could find to prove your point
Anyway those discussions are always funny.
When X wins over Y, Y was not in form. When Y wins over X it's because Y is clearly better.
I believe Van Der Poel will end up as a better classics rider, but Wout will rack up many stage wins and ITT's, possibly some GC wins too. It will come down to what someone values more, but nevertheless it will be interesting to follow those two careers.
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