Teams & Riders Offical Wout Van Aert isn't a new Zdenek Stybar

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I'll say it again, he's the best cyclist I have ever seen, and probably the best since the days of Hinault, Fignon, and LeMond.
He is most certainly the Hero and new King of Belgium. Beating Cav, preserving Eddie's record on the Champs wearing the Belgian jersey? How could it get better? Him declaring he was a "little cyclist" compared to Eddie didn't hurt, either.
 
He is most certainly the Hero and new King of Belgium. Beating Cav, preserving Eddie's record on the Champs wearing the Belgian jersey? How could it get better? Him declaring he was a "little cyclist" compared to Eddie didn't hurt, either.
I think it shows both humility and a sense of history. Eddy was a giant, and that he even is breathed in the same sentence as Cavendish is about as fine an example of recency bias as I can recall. Which is in NO way a knock on Cav. But I've never seen an athlete as dominant as Merckx in any sport in my lifetime.

Wout is incredible, the guy is a full on mutant. But he's no Eddy.
 
Wout can't match the world's climbing elite on big mountains, but will AAA climbers like Bernal, Pogacar, Carapaz and Roglic even ride Lombardia? Seems doubtful. And if the likes of Mollema, Valverde, Bennet, Gilbert and Fuglsang have been reliably capable of cresting the final Lombardia climbs among the first five, Wout should certainly be able to do so as well.
 
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Wout can't match the world's climbing elite on big mountains, but will AAA climbers like Bernal, Pogacar, Carapaz and Roglic even ride Lombardia? Seems doubtful. And if the likes of Mollema, Valverde, Bennet, Gilbert and Fuglsang have been reliably capable of cresting the final Lombardia climbs among the first five, Wout should certainly be able to do so as well.
Dropping 3 minutes on Ventoux is strong for a breakaway rider, but I think the pacing of the peloton was pretty suboptimal.

I think in the Olympic road race it's gonna be extremely hard if he ends up more than 30s behind.
 
Wout can't match the world's climbing elite on big mountains, but will AAA climbers like Bernal, Pogacar, Carapaz and Roglic even ride Lombardia? Seems doubtful. And if the likes of Mollema, Valverde, Bennet, Gilbert and Fuglsang have been reliably capable of cresting the final Lombardia climbs among the first five, Wout should certainly be able to do so as well.
First, can we stop mentioning Carapaz in the context of winning major one-day races, cause it ain't gonna happen.
Second, AAA climbers like Bernal and Roglic rode Lombardia in recent past, yet they couldn't drop the likes of Valverde and Fuglsang, and the like of Mollema left them all in the dust behind him.
Third, and most important, one-day race are totally different beast to GT's, so that AAA climbers could easily become BBB, or CCC...
 
First, can we stop mentioning Carapaz in the context of winning major one-day races, cause it ain't gonna happen.
Second, AAA climbers like Bernal and Roglic rode Lombardia in recent past, yet they couldn't drop the likes of Valverde and Fuglsang, and the like of Mollema left them all in the dust behind him.
Third, and most important, one-day race are totally different beast to GT's, so that AAA climbers could easily become BBB, or CCC...
Your point is on the money and good single-day winners frequently have a team dedicated to their effort; a trade team. World Championship and Olympic-bound national teams are not as focused and sometimes not even loyal. That said; some of the best are capable of free-lancing and teams become less significant. WvA is that kind of guy but a serious climber has similar pack abilities and can climb when it counts. He'll be marked until he loses that critical gap on a climb, IMO.
 
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There's no way, that all of the 78 kg of him gonna hold on with the world's best climbers on a 7km 10% murito.

I think that after his Ventoux win, people are now overrating his climbing ability. Ok, winnnig a triple in the Tour was truly incredible, but come on.
Ain't gonna happen because that was his winter weight in 2018/2019 during CX season. Looking at images between then and now, he's clearly lost a good chunk. I wouldn't be surprised if he weighs well below 75 now. Knowing Dumo won the Giro with 71kg, that might give you an indication and point of reference.

Dropping 3 minutes on Ventoux is strong for a breakaway rider, but I think the pacing of the peloton was pretty suboptimal.

I think in the Olympic road race it's gonna be extremely hard if he ends up more than 30s behind.
Kwiat was going all in and he was slowly taking back time on Van Aert. Once the big boys started attacking they took back time faster. But they had not been in the break and had not been riding solo most of the climb. So you can't really compare. Also, while Vingegaard crossed the summit 1m30s after Van Aert, Pogacar, Uran and Carapaz were trailing by 2 minutes.

To be clear, i already said i think his chances are slim, and he'll likely won't be able to follow the big boys on Mikuni, but it's not impossible that he can limit his losses.
 
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Ain't gonna happen because that was his winter weight in 2018/2019 during CX season. Looking at images between then and now, he's clearly lost a good chunk. I wouldn't be surprised if he weighs well below 75 now. Knowing Dumo won the Giro with 71kg, that might give you an indication and point of reference.
You're right. I was aware that this value could be not so accurate, but I couldn't find any other data and used this one.
Anyway, even if he's at 75 now, he's still gonna loose a fair amount of time if the climby climbers (Wout is a sprinty-TTy-climber or any other configuration of this) go full gas on a 10% ascent.
But of course, depending on how high the pace will be on that climb and how the race will play out in general, he's definitely able to limit his losses. But imo, in a situation when everything is going to be decided on Mikuno climb with the strongest climbers attacking just from the bottom, his eventual gap on the top will be very likely significant.

As for Dumo, if he was 71kg winning Giro and he's 5cm shorter than van Aert and also his general physiqe being clearly much slimmer (van Aert's thighs are +2kg alone), I can't see Wout weighing well below 75.
Also Tom won that Giro mostly on flat TTs, where he put 4,5 minutes to Quintana who was 2nd in GC.
 
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They have him even with Roglic. But it will be tough to beat Tadej
To me betting against Roglic seems the easiest money.

Ain't gonna happen because that was his winter weight in 2018/2019 during CX season. Looking at images between then and now, he's clearly lost a good chunk. I wouldn't be surprised if he weighs well below 75 now. Knowing Dumo won the Giro with 71kg, that might give you an indication and point of reference.



Kwiat was going all in and he was slowly taking back time on Van Aert. Once the big boys started attacking they took back time faster. But they had not been in the break and had not been riding solo most of the climb. So you can't really compare. Also, while Vingegaard crossed the summit 1m30s after Van Aert, Pogacar, Uran and Carapaz were trailing by 2 minutes.

To be clear, i already said i think his chances are slim, and he'll likely won't be able to follow the big boys on Mikuni, but it's not impossible that he can limit his losses.
I actually think a big boy showdown on Mikuni deciding the race is very unlikely, and Van Aert shoudl probably be in the attack before that.
 

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