Official Thread: Stage 16 TdF Martigny - Bourg-Saint-Maurice

[benpounder]

OK, Ill get this started...

Several years ago, I stayed in Pre St Didier for a ski trip. I have been across most of the route to be ridden, and it is tough. I wouldn't want to ride it at even at cat 4 pace.

[my edit] oops, spent too much time making sure the post was not a repeat and forgot to check the spelling of the thread title

[second edit] In case anyone wonders, I typed the title as Martigny toGourg Saint Maurice.

 

[benpounder]

for what it is worth, were the race to go straight instead of turning left at Pre St Didier, they would eventually face this:

or go thru a 20km+ tunnel that killed a bunch of folks several years ago.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

[my edit] oops, spent too much time making sure the post was not a repeat and forgot to check the spelling of the thread title

You can fix it by editing your initial post, and fixing the title.

 

[benpounder]

Thanks, I did not try the "go advanced" option.

[my edit] changes it on the actual thread, but not the main page

 

[benpounder]

and in case anyone wonders what the ski station above Sunday's finish looks like in April:

Best area I have ever skied.

 

[hfer07]

we could be witnessing LA's funeral if Saxo Team goes all out to crack AC in the last climb--but at the same time, they have to think of Wednesday's brutal stage & the ITT.. really nice final week opening...

 

[ericthesportsman6]

I think Nibali might have a go today, he's a superb descender.

 

[Polka Dot Punter]

Given tomorrow's stage profile and the ensuing ITT, it's hard to imagine Astana will chase down a break if it isn't threatening. Very much expecting a Pellizotti or Rogers win today.

 

[msjett]

First 40kms up hill, ouch.....nothing like a bit of suffering to start today's stage. Be interesting to see if there is a break away.

 

[benpounder]

First 40kms up hill, ouch.....nothing like a bit of suffering to start today's stage. Be interesting to see if there is a break away.

Wiith an HC and a (doublepoint I think) cat 1, I'd guess we will see those after the mountaingoat jersey off the front. Pellozotti could win the stage.

 

[benpounder]

Thanks CN for fixing my screwup...

 

[dgodave]

What is the last descent and run-out to the finish like? How much flat between descent and finish? (I can never tell from these graphics that exaggerate the vertical.)
.

 

[benpounder]

What is the last descent and run-out to the finish like?
.

Dont know the finishing downhill, but I do know that the first uphill, first downhill, and second up hill have very little transitional terrain in between.

It is a bear of a stage.

 

[blaxland]

With such a lot of desending on this stage,my vote for stage victory is .........Mathew lloyd Silence/Lotto.....Excellent climber and has improved his desending over the last 2 years.....Since Cadels tour is screwed The bunch may let him go on a break..

 

[dadoorsron]

30 K to the finish. Unless the lead group gets a 2 plus minute lead you will have a large group of riders finishing. Can anyone of the GC contenders get a 2 minute lead on this climb to keep it at the finish line? I don't think so.

 

[badboyberty]

I'd like to see LL Sanchez go for the stage win, if he makes it to the front with a lead group he can probably open a gap on the descent and he's lost enough time to be given a long leash by the GC teams.

Pellizotti will give it a go, looks like he sat up early on stage 15 in order to lose even more time, I don't think I've ever seen a real climber work so hard on winning the Polka dots. And I'd expect Feilleu and Martinez to try to cover any Pellizotti attack, but i don't see either of them sticking with him.

Silence and SaxoBank will try to put a rider in the break (Wegelius and Voigt most likely), but as far as GC goes I think if Saxo or Silence try anything Contador will just blow things apart again.

I think Astana have worked out Evans can hold his own if they use the US-Postal/Discovery style high tempo climb, but is in big trouble once the accelerations start. Pity for Lance is he's the same style of climber as Evans so as long as Evans and Sastre are seen as two of the biggest threats Contador will just keep up the vicious accelerations. If Evans and Sastre lose too much time, the tactic will probably swap to high tempo grinds to try to prevent the Schecklet from attacking.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree this is mostly to be a KOM stage, and for a breakaway someone not high on GC.

There is hope though that some will throw caution to the wind. I just don't expect it as no one has taken any risks at all in this Tour so far. Zip.

Just like some of the other mountain stages in this year's Tour, this one would have been better if it were backwards.

 

[The Barb]

This stage has a quite similar profile to the stage won by Cyril Dessel last year (which, coincidentally was also Stage 16) after a breakaway. The other breakaway participants were Casar, Popovych, Arroyo, Portal, Hincapie and Valjavec.

I see the same kind of 2nd-tier GC quality riders coming to the fore. If Michael Rogers is feeling alright it is a perfect stage for him.

I don't think guys like Luis Leon Sanchez and Vincezo Nibali would be given much leeway by the peloton if they try to escape early, though they might be able to gain some time on the final descent.

 

[craig1985]

I'm interested in how Wiggins will go. If he gets dropped and doesn't lose a lot of time then he can desend like a nutcase and get back on.

 

[Amsterhammer]

I saw an interview with the Schleck brothers last night in which they announced that they would try 'something' today. Andy said that he couldn't live with himself if he got to Paris without at least having given an attack on AC his best shot.

I expect to see something of L-L today.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Once again, the organisers missed a trick, here. The could have gone over the Colle San Carlo which abuts Le Petite Bernard. 10% average gradient.


Making the profile look like this:



This would have made it extremely easy to break up the Astana train and turn the stage into a contender attack fest.
As it is, they will probably sit back and let a break go, awaiting tomorrow, which does have a really mean finish.

 

[craig1985]

That is insanely brutal. Mellow why aren't you working for ASO?

 

[auscyclefan94]

30 K to the finish. Unless the lead group gets a 2 plus minute lead you will have a large group of riders finishing. Can anyone of the GC contenders get a 2 minute lead on this climb to keep it at the finish line? I don't think so.

I think you can hold a 2 minute lead on tonights descent. It's a lot easier for 1 person to ride solo on a descent than a group. 1 person can corner better than a big group.

 

[hoolaparara]

Well maybe Menchov can actually do something or drop out either way something happens...

This is a stage where someone who with hopes and dreams but a large deficit should do something but doubtless they will defend their top 10 chances instead.

Who was tipping Moncoutie every day? Has they lost faith?

 

[Mellow Velo]

That is insanely brutal. Mellow why aren't you working for ASO?

Well, it's the profile I would expect to see from the Giro organisers. (in a normal Giro)
That's why it's a better race.
The probable difference between the contenders chosing whether or not to contest the stage, or being forced to.

I don't know why the ASO seem to dislike big gradients, but prefer cavalry charges...