Official Thread: Stage 19: Bourgoin-Jallieu - Aubenas 178km

[El Imbatido]

Ok, stage 19. A few hills but yet again like most stages wil finsh with a down hill run. So break to stay away? Possibility of Armstrong, Wiggins, Kloden or F. Schleck to attack on the Escrinet Pass to try and get some time to secure the last spot on the podium?

Discuss

 

[badboyberty]

Chavanel beats LL Sanchez in a sprint after a long break. Casar rolls in for third.

Favourites play watchy watchy do nothing game.

 

[Animal]

Possibility of Armstrong, Wiggins, Kloden or F. Schleck to attack on the Escrinet Pass to try and get some time to secure the last spot on the podium?

Discuss

That would be great.

But not done nowadays. The managers would have a fit, and order their riders to cease and desist immediately.

 

[Chef_Vodnik]

Holy Noodle, that last climb looks evil; Is this just due to a weird profile picture, or is it really as "hard" as it looks like on that one?

 

[Grater]

Devolder if he gets in a break!

 

[Animal]

It's the scaling of the picture. It's an easy climb, and canot make any difference. It's a day for a break.

http://www.climbbybike.com/profile.asp?Climbprofile=Col-de-lEscrinet&MountainID=6044

 

[badboyberty]

Holy Noodle, that last climb looks evil; Is this just due to a weird profile picture, or is it really as "hard" as it looks like on that one?

Stage Profiles always use a loopy scale that can make small hills look nasty.

Col de l'Escrinet is only a Category 2 as it's 14 kilometres long at an average gradient of 4.1%. Not hard enough to be very selective.

 

[Chef_Vodnik]

It's the scaling of the picture. It's an easy climb, and canot make any difference. It's a day for a break.

http://www.climbbybike.com/profile.asp?Climbprofile=Col-de-lEscrinet&MountainID=6044

Thanks.

My bet for today then would be either someone from Rabobank or Milram.

 

[craig1985]

Maybe Menchov or Evans could get in the break. I think Astana will let them go.

 

[Jonathan]

I pick Freire to win the sprint of a lead group.

Perhaps Armstrong will try to increase his grip on his 3rd place. I think he has a good chance to do so.

 

[Carl0880]

I definately think a break of about 10-15 minutes lead will win. I will guess that one of the usually agressive riders will win. Chavanel or Flecha. I can't recall at this moment Flecha in a breakaway, and he is usually good for 1 solid breakaway effort.

 

[Pharazon]

this feels like a Thor day to me

 

[seldon71]

The only overall guy I can even imagine to attack there is Nibali.

Especially as they could have Pellizotti up the road with an "alibi" of going for mountain points.

And as Nibali is probably the most daring downhiller of them all as of today.

But the descent doesn't seem steep or dangerous enough to give a chance for that either...

Still, I'd like him to try anyway - he is right now totally forgotten from the discussion of podium, but still only 1 min 50 secs back from Armstrong.

If others play safe (as they probably should), Nibali could use a strong acceleration some 2 km from the top, try to open 15-20 seconds of advantage and then risk everything downhill (even better chance with a bit of rain on a day). Such an attack could bring him to about one minute from podium and make Ventoux even more interesting.

Besides, it would ABSOLUTELY not matter if Contador/Andy/both would stay on his wheel - Nibali is no longer riding against them!

It would be worth of attack IF he could just budge one of the quartet in front of him... And he is the ONLY one in position where risking it all downhill makes sense.

 

[badboyberty]

No Pellizotti in any moves today. Polka-dot competition is over, the points for Martinez or Fedrigo to get past Pellizotti just aren't there. He'll save himself to see if he can score THE stage win of the Tour on Saturday.

 

[seldon71]

Euskaltel driving the peloton today?

Quite a few typical candidates for attack on this type of stage : Casar, van den Broeck, Le Mevel, Goubert - are still in position to challenge Astarloza's position in Top 10.

Euskaltel has gone public about being happy for having man in Top 10 and I can't see Astarloza himself wasting energy today while Ventoux is looming ahead.

Thus I don't think the team in orange will let anyone potentially threatening to gain time today or anyone to become a potential threat. If there is a successful breakaway, it will be only guys more than 25 minutes back in overall.

Saxo, Astana & Garmin can likely take today REALLY easy...

 

[seldon71]

No Pellizotti in any moves today. Polka-dot competition is over, the points for Martinez or Fedrigo to get past Pellizotti just aren't there. He'll save himself to see if he can score THE stage win of the Tour on Saturday.

Will there be double points on Escrinet? Or double points available only when the final mountain is 1st or HC category?

IF there is double points on Escrinet, in THEORY Martinez could still beat Pellizotti by winning every climb from here on and Pellizotti not scoring....

Ok, it is over

So, replace Pellizotti with Kuschynski, Vandborg or Willems as a "regular" breakaway participant. Scenario remains, but it will require great timing.

 

[The Barb]

If Rabobank don't take a decent shot today to try and something out of the Tour then there is somethin seriously wrong. Their best chance is to chase down a break away because Freire will get over the last climb with a lead group and with no Cavendish or (possibly) Hushovd, he's about a 3-1 chance to win. Whereas, if they just try to get Flecha in a break they have, at best, about a 6-1 chance of winning.

So I think to have the best chance they should put no one in a break and keep as many troops as possible in the peloton to chase it down. God knows Menchov has no chance of winning Ventoux so there's nothing to save themselves for.

As an aside, Heinrich Haussler has said he will be trying to get into the break, so 30-1 looks good to me. It also makes me think they're not going to be trying to set it up for Hushovd.

 

[craig1985]

SITUATION

Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), Yaroslav Popovych (Astana), David Millar (Garmin), Kim Kirchen (Columbia), Jose Luis Arrieta and Nicolas Roche(AG2R), David Arroyo, Luis-Leon Sanchez and Jose Ivan Gutierrez (Caisse d'Epargne), Leonard Duque (Cofidis), Simon Spilak (Lampre), Carlos Barredo and Sylvain Chavanel (Quick Step), Geoffrey Lequatre (Agritubel), Daniele Bennati (Liquigas), Stijn Vandenbergh (Katusha), Jonathan Hivert (Skil-Shimano) and William Bonnet (Bbox)

Peloton at 1:05

 

[Carl0880]

If Rabobank don't take a decent shot today to try and something out of the Tour then there is somethin seriously wrong. Their best chance is to chase down a break away because Freire will get over the last climb with a lead group and with no Cavendish or (possibly) Hushovd, he's about a 3-1 chance to win. Whereas, if they just try to get Flecha in a break they have, at best, about a 6-1 chance of winning.

So I think to have the best chance they should put no one in a break and keep as many troops as possible in the peloton to chase it down. God knows Menchov has no chance of winning Ventoux so there's nothing to save themselves for.

As an aside, Heinrich Haussler has said he will be trying to get into the break, so 30-1 looks good to me. It also makes me think they're not going to be trying to set it up for Hushovd.

At the moment, it looks like the answer to the opening line is something seriously wrong

 

[Mellow Velo]

SITUATION

Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), Yaroslav Popovych (Astana), David Millar (Garmin), Kim Kirchen (Columbia), Jose Luis Arrieta and Nicolas Roche(AG2R), David Arroyo, Luis-Leon Sanchez and Jose Ivan Gutierrez (Caisse d'Epargne), Leonard Duque (Cofidis), Simon Spilak (Lampre), Carlos Barredo and Sylvain Chavanel (Quick Step), Geoffrey Lequatre (Agritubel), Daniele Bennati (Liquigas), Stijn Vandenbergh (Katusha), Jonathan Hivert (Skil-Shimano) and William Bonnet (Bbox)

Peloton at 1:05

Just about everybody you could think of, wanting to get in the last sure break of this Tour, bar Perrick Fedrigo and...............Dennis Menchov.

 

[Chef_Vodnik]

Thanks.

My bet for today then would be either someone from Rabobank or Milram.

And I was dead wrong.

What do you guys reckon, are they allowed to stay away? Astana got Popovych in there to act as policeman.

 

[Wergeland]

What happend to VDV?

 

[TRDean]

Here is to hoping Hivert can do something special today. I thought he would be more visible in the mountains...but maybe he is still too young.

 

[hoolaparara]

Wow Rabobank are in the tour? Did they join late or something?

 

[Bala Verde]

Just about everybody you could think of, wanting to get in the last sure break of this Tour, bar Perrick Fedrigo and...............Dennis Menchov.

I had picked Fedrigo as well!

Not Menchov though... or any other RAB. I knew something would go wrong, unfortunately, again

Interesting to see that Caisse has 3 represented and Rabobank is just rehashing the TTT today. Freire could have won today, but the chase is gone I guess, 19 vs 4.5 (since half is injured) would normally not be enough.

Was Milram represented? Perhaps they can work together to set up Cioleck