Official Thread: Stage 20: Montélimar - Mt. Ventoux 167km

[Cobblestones]

Official Thread: Stage 20: Montélimar - Mt. Ventoux 167km

Stage 20. The one many of us have waited for.

KOM competition: Pellizotti has only to arrive in Paris to win it
Green jersey: Hushovd has a comfortable 25 point lead which will not change
White jersey: A. Schleck by more than 3' over Nibali and
MJ: Bertie by more than 4' over A. Schleck

The questions which will be decided are
1) Who will win the stage? and
2) Who will be 3rd overall after the stage?

To help discussions of the second question, let's look at the possibilities

I. LA in 3rd
II. Wiggins by 15"
III. Klöden by 17"
IV. F. Schleck by 38" and possibly
V. Nibali by 1'54"

Common tactics dictates that Contador shadows A. Schleck, who might go on a final attack either for a stage win, to have a crapshoot at yellow, or to drag his brother onto the podium. If that's how it plays out, who will be able to follow? Can Bertie jump away in the end to stamp his authority over the race and win the stage? Also, will Wiggins attack LA? And what are Astana's team orders with respect to Klöden and LA?

Discuss and enjoy the stage.

 

[Cobber]

Can't wait! My vote for the win is Andy taking the sprint over AC. 3rd overall is Frank who is the only person who can hang with his younger brother and AC.

Two brothers on the podium... when did that last happen (if at all)?

 

[Ninety5rpm]

2nd place is not up for grabs like 3rd place is, but it's not locked up the way 1st is either.

Andy is young. He can crack. Anything can happen on Ventoux.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Can't wait! My vote for the win is Andy taking the sprint over AC. 3rd overall is Frank who is the only person who can hang with his younger brother and AC.

Is that what you think will happen, or what you hope will happen?

I hope the best man wins.
I think Contador, Andy, Lance, Wiggy...

I'm guessing Franck and Klodi will blow up after helping Andy and Astana respectively.

 

[pedaling squares]

Good questions. Based on what we've seen thus far I expect Klodi to sacrifice his own chances and work for LA. Andy will try to help Frank grab 3rd unless something happens that threatens his #2 spot (unlikely). No doubt Sastre will try to take the stage. Ventoux should be better suited to Wiggo than were the Alpes, but I can't see him accelerating away from the others to grab 3rd. AC is the wild card, my guess is that if LA struggles AC will let him slip away and will show the rest of the peloton that you don't mess with the new patron.

My guesses (and they are nothing more than speculation):
AC for the stage.
Frank for the podium.

 

[Cobber]

Is that what you think will happen, or what you hope will happen?

Both!

................

 

[Cobblestones]

Two brothers on the podium... when did that last happen (if at all)?

I looked up all previous TdF podiums and as far as I can tell: Never. It would be a first. Strange that it hasn't been hyped in the media so far (at least not on Vs). See also the Andy and Fränk thread.

Haven't checked for the other GT's.

Ah, and this really says it all. I'll put the soundtrack on my turntable for the climb. No Phil&Paul.

 

[Publicus]

Is that what you think will happen, or what you hope will happen?

I hope the best man wins.
I think Contador, Andy, Lance, Wiggy...

I'm guessing Franck and Klodi will blow up after helping Andy and Astana respectively.

Interesting. You think Frank and Klodi will blow up, but not Lance. He blew up on Verbier. Wasted himself trying to limit his losses on Colombiere. Blew himself up yesterday at the ITT. I would think he is a more likely candidate to implode than Frank (Kloden is a definite candidate, as is Wiggins).

 

[pedaling squares]

Interesting. You think Frank and Klodi will blow up, but not Lance. He blew up on Verbier. Wasted himself trying to limit his losses on Colombiere. Blew himself up yesterday at the ITT. I would think he is a more likely candidate to implode than Frank (Kloden is a definite candidate, as is Wiggins).

+1. Back to back cramps at the end of stages 17 & 18 doesn't bode well. Old boy is pretty impressive nonetheless.

 

[afpm90]

In this stage the victory will go again to Contador, no one has shown climbing ability to beat him. I would like to see Sastre winning but i don't think it's possible.

 

[Anonymous]

Like I said yesterday, I am the biggest Frank Schleck fan on the planet tomorrow. I hope that he is receiving a bag of packed cells as we speak.

 

[tigerboy]

Frankly I think AC has been riding within himself and will win it if he really wants to. He has only truly extended himself three times this Tour ( the TT and the 2 Mountain stages) and on all three occasions was imperious.Everything being equal he probably has 20 seconds on A Schleck and at least 40 on anyone else.

On another stage he would be happy to coast along but this is the Ventoux. Contador will want it and will win it.

 

[Anonymous]

Frankly I think AC has been riding within himself and will win it if he really wants to. He has only truly extended himself three times this Tour ( the TT and the 2 Mountain stages) and on all three occasions was imperious.Everything being equal he probably has 20 seconds on A Schleck and at least 40 on anyone else.

On another stage he would be happy to coast along but this is the Ventoux. Contador will want it and will win it.

At the top of the TT climb, he wasn't even breathing hard. Contrast that with Mr Armstrong. And in Lance's words the year after letting Pantani win Ventoux, "NO GIFTS!!!."

 

[dgodave]

Anybody know anything about the WIND up Ventoux?
.
I always hear its windy in that part of France. Will the riders on the climb likely face a headwind? Tailwind? No wind?
.

 

[Cobblestones]

Anybody know anything about the WIND up Ventoux?
.
I always hear its windy in that part of France. Will the riders on the climb likely face a headwind? Tailwind? No wind?
.

Ok. Good question. Let's look at the map

and the weather forecast which seems to suggest a ~15 mph wind from the north on Saturday afternoon. So it's more of a headwind for the last part.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Will be like a forumla 1 start, at Bedoin, what, with all those Ferrari's revved up and ready for the off...CHARGE!
My money is on Lance outwaiting them all.
Frank has to go first, so, I expect Andy, marked by Berto, to have already gone up the road.
Frank will follow. If distance allows, Lance will pull for a bit then play "chicken with Wiggins", who will lead, instead of sit.
Lance will use up Wiggins, then step across and sit on the back.
2 against 2 and no wildcard.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[dgodave]

Ok. Good question. Let's look at the map....

Thanks for the work. I see what you mean. 15 mph wind could be significant for anyone trying an early attack... if its a headwind. Looks like most of the ascent is on the leeward side of the Mt. and not really head on to a N. wind. but who knows how the air swirls around these mountains....?
.

 

[Cobblestones]

Interesting fact. The first winner on Mt. Ventoux in 1958 was Charly Gaul from ... Luxembourg.

Other winners were Raymond Poulidor, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Thévenet, Jean-François Bernard, Marco Pantani and Richard Virenque. Never has a Spaniard won on top (I'm neglecting all the 6 crossings).

 

[Cobber]

Profile of the climb.

 

[avanti]

A potential killer for any GC condender riding up to over 6200 feet will be if it is windy and very hot. Right now the forcast is for around 80 degrees (in the shade). I would expect AC and LA to thrive if conditions are bad.

 

[Cobber]

A potential killer for any GC condender riding up to over 6200 feet will be if it is windy and very hot. Right now the forcast is for around 80 degrees (in the shade). I would expect AC and LA to thrive if conditions are bad.

I am thinking more that one of lance's legs will snap at around km 10.

 

[Cobblestones]

A potential killer for any GC condender riding up to over 6200 feet will be if it is windy and very hot. Right now the forcast is for around 80 degrees (in the shade). I would expect AC and LA to thrive if conditions are bad.

What shade?

 

[slowoldman]

What shade?

The bottom slopes of Ventoux are shaded by trees.

 

[Cobblestones]

The bottom slopes of Ventoux are shaded by trees.

True enough. But I think most riders are worried about this part.

 

[Stelvio]

Anybody know anything about the WIND up Ventoux?

I always hear its windy in that part of France. Will the riders on the climb likely face a headwind? Tailwind? No wind?

What is often forgotten about Mont Ventoux is the part from Les Bruns to Chalet Reynard. Those are ten really hard kilometres, entirely in a forest and virtually no switchbacks. This means no wind and hot (especially since Mont Ventoux isn't so high, in an Alpine perspective).

After Chalet Reynard the road climbs steadily following the contours of the mountain side so I guess the wind's effect can be rather local. According to wikipedia the Col de Tempêtes (about 1k from the finish) is the windiest part, but with Cobblestones' forecast of 15mph winds, the wind will not be a big factor (as an aside, I don't recall much wind from when I climbed it early July a few years ago). The temperatures doesn't seem extreme either.