Official thread TdF Stage 15 Pontarlier - Verbier - 207.5 km

[indurain666]

The long awaited third week begins. Race is in the Swiss Alps now. Are we going to see some fireworks??

 

[Amsterhammer]

Thanks for starting it, but it just ain't the same without the map(s).

Some questions for tomorrow -

Will Spartacus feel the need to 'show himself' since almost the entire stage is in Switzerland?

Will Moncoutie ever show himself in this Tour?

Will any serious attacks by GC pretenders take place before the last few kms. of the final climb?

Who will wear the yellow tomorrow evening?

(For the Poms and Strines - can England actually win a test match?)

These, and many other questions may or may not be answered on the next less than thrilling episode of Le Tour de Bore...eh pardon, de France.

 

[indurain666]

Thanks for starting it, but it just ain't the same without the map(s).


Some questions for tomorrow -

Will Spartacus feel the need to 'show himself' since almost the entire stage is in Switzerland?

Will Moncoutie ever show himself in this Tour?

Will any serious attacks by GC pretenders take place before the last few kms. of the final climb?

Who will wear the yellow tomorrow evening?

(For the Poms and Strines - can England actually win a test match?)

These, and many other questions may or may not be answered on the next less than thrilling episode of Le Tour de Bore...eh pardon, de France.

Thanks for the map

My predictions:

AC in yellow at the end of the day. Perhaps some fire works (Sastre, Schleck, Evans and either AC or LA at the last climb), but a small group with the favorites at the end of the stage. Wiggo is going to be there, Spartacus won't make it. Stage win...though one, I'll say it comes from a small break that will go early.


Perhaps AC could put in 20-30 seconds again.

 

[Pot Belgique]

Questions and answers

Thanks for starting it, but it just ain't the same without the map(s).


Some questions for tomorrow -

Will Spartacus feel the need to 'show himself' since almost the entire stage is in Switzerland? Without doubt he will show early but blow on the final climb

Will Moncoutie ever show himself in this Tour? Yes, tomorrow he will be in a break that gets caught on the final climb

Will any serious attacks by GC pretenders take place before the last few kms. of the final climb? Unlikey that anyone will try to go before the final climb

Who will wear the yellow tomorrow evening? Contador will wear it but LA will let everyone know that it was only because he said so

(For the Poms and Strines - can England actually win a test match?) We will probably make a right rick of it as usual and it will end in a draw
These, and many other questions may or may not be answered on the next less than thrilling episode of Le Tour de Bore...eh pardon, de France.

Hopefully I will stay awake to see if my predictions come true cos I admit I fell asleep watching the other day zzzzzzzz

 

[Mellow Velo]

A finishing climb that wouldn't be out of place in LBL.
The worst thing is, we have to endure 200kms before they get there.

I don't know if folks have noticed, but in this Tour, we have had 3rd cat climbs ranging from less than a km to 2 or 3.
The whole scale of climbing has been downgraded.

 

[Parrot23]

Will Spartacus feel the need to 'show himself' since almost the entire stage is in Switzerland?

LOL, maybe the highlight of the stage will be him trying to yodel at Evans for trying to attack on sacred soil of Switzerland.

 

[BroDeal]

Judging by the racing on Friday, this will be like a funeral procession. If I time things right I might be able to sleep in until the last fifteen minutes of the stage.

We won't see anything until the last three kilometers, and then it will be Evans or A. Schleck going through the motions so they can say they tried to attack. I think Armstrong will make an attempt to take time out of Contador. Whether he can do it, I don't know. Gotta assume Dr. Ferrari has fixed him up, though, so it would not surprise me.

 

[runninboy]

If i was Stapleton i would position a few riders around the yellow jersey, if either Garmin or Astana attack i would use all my resources to keep Nocentini in yellow, i would push him by the seatpost if i had to.
The French won't relegate their own yellow jersey. I'd drag his **** all the way to Paris ...

 

[Parrot23]

Agree with Stephen Roche's comments on Friday's stage. Let's hope this doesn't continue:

"I was very disappointed today, that should have been a good stage," Roche said of the rain-lashed race to Colmar. "There is no way at all it should have finished off like that. When you see the final climb, not even one leader had an attack on it. They all stayed wearing their [rain] capes…they should have at least taken them off and had a go. It's insulting not to do that, to not even lift their backsides off the saddle."

He feels that time is running out fast for those who would challenge Contador and Armstrong. "Every day they are saying wait for tomorrow, wait for the next day. So why not just give the jersey to Contador tomorrow and say, 'here you are, instead of racing to Paris we'll go on holidays?' It is bit harsh to say it, but that is how I feel."

Evans' DS has just about told everyone that Evans is going to attack (sending smoke signals right left and centre). Worst possible stage could be the standard attack by Evans off the front, closed down by everyone. Don't want to see that again.

The question for me is, who counters first, Lance or Contador, and does one go too early or not given the risk of the other getting yellow?

 

[BroDeal]

Agree with Stephen Roche's comments on Friday's stage:
...
He feels that time is running out fast for those who would challenge Contador and Armstrong. "Every day they are saying wait for tomorrow, wait for the next day. So why not just give the jersey to Contador tomorrow and say, 'here you are, instead of racing to Paris we'll go on holidays?' It is bit harsh to say it, but that is how I feel.[/I]"

Evans is planning to launch a surprise attack on the Champs-Elysees. Andy Schleck will wait until the he spots a speed bump on the last day.

 

[Parrot23]

evans is planning on launching a surprise attack on the champs-elysees. Andy schleck will wait until the he spots a speed bump on the last day.

+1 ha, ha, ha.

 

[afpm90]

I expect a attack from Cadel Evans on this stage, because of his recent comments and the fact he can't wait anymore. Like the other GC guys. It's time to attack, and if they don't attack they are big pussies.

 

[richwagmn]

I expect a attack from Cadel Evans on this stage, because of his recent comments and the fact he can't wait anymore. Like the other GC guys. It's time to attack, and if they don't attack they are big pussies.

+1. DiLuca has 10 times the heart of any of these guys. TDF is so friggen defensive. They should all just ride for charities and shill for donations. Everyone's so afraid to do anything.

At least Evans should give it a go and I gotta think Contador is chomping at the bit.

 

[Anonymous]

im expectng menchov to attack off the back...

or maybe the front, i cant remember..

no.. definately the back..

 

[cycutza]

Judging by the racing on Friday, this will be like a funeral procession. If I time things right I might be able to sleep in until the last fifteen minutes of the stage.

We won't see anything until the last three kilometers, and then it will be Evans or A. Schleck going through the motions so they can say they tried to attack. I think Armstrong will make an attempt to take time out of Contador. Whether he can do it, I don't know. Gotta assume Dr. Ferrari has fixed him up, though, so it would not surprise me.

Going through the motions all right. Stage winner is a bit different and going to be hard to pick (any thoughts....Pellizotti???) because I think it will be from the break but the rest is a formality. The yellow should change hands at least and its probably time for AC and Astana to take responsibility for it in the final week which should be easy.

 

[hoolaparara]

I must say the more I've thought about it the more I get the feeling that neither climbing finish stage will have any great effect. The runs in are both too flat and will allow astana to have pretty much the full team at the bottom to burn off running tempo. Then at 1km to go Contador will jump from a large pack and get 15-20 seconds and nothing achieved.

Stages 16 & 17 are harder and although not uphill finishes have little flat that means good descenders could hold time from over the top. Sadly cycling is an intensely defensive and conservative sport so I suspect nothing will happen there either.

My tip: Menchov to drop out during stage 16

 

[objective skeptic]

They should all just ride for charities and shill for donations.

Hey, isn't that what LA is doing?

 

[benpounder]

Contador and Schlecklet, Sastre, then Evans and Armstrong (and the rest).

 

[craig1985]

Evans is planning to launch a surprise attack on the Champs-Elysees. Andy Schleck will wait until the he spots a speed bump on the last day.

Evans' bike will have a 80cc motor on it.

 

[msjett]

When you think about it, none of the GC riders have had to do much this week...they should all have the legs to have a go. Whether they get the opportunity is another thing.
Anyway, everyone should be hopefull it's not just another fizzer!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree with Melllo. He and I have both said it before. This climb is easier than Arcalis by quite a bit. Not as steep, not nearly as long, and 800m lower. And with such a long lead-in, we should see Astana leading some 50+ riders to the climb and setting a fast pace.

Some riders will attack, Evans, Schleck, Sastre, but I don't think we'll see huge gaps even if they do get away. This isn't the kind of climb where we see riders splintered all over the course for the last 10km, and gaps in the minutes. We'll see little groups, and some riders gaining seconds over each other. Contador or Lance may jump, and get into yellow. Contador could definitely follow Lance's attack, but will he? I don't think anyone in the world can follow Contador if he attacks. IF.

Nocentini might, maybe be able to hold onto yellow, maybe. All he has to do is follow the Astana train, and hold on as long as he can.

Got to give Evans credit. For a guy who a month ago was blasted throughout the world for never attacking and just following wheels, he's the one single guy more than any other so far that has attacked, and shown a penchant to do so.

+1. DiLuca has 10 times the heart of any of these guys. TDF is so friggen defensive.

Agree +1000. Say what you will about Danilo's past, but the heart of a champion that guy has. His riding in this year's Giro puts every single rider in the Tour to complete shame.

I haven't given up all hope. I think we'll see some splits on Stage 16 and 17, though the downhill finishes on both won't help stir things up. But I really think we're going to get to Annecy and Ventoux before we see real racing. And that would be astounding. The Tour reduced to that, and maybe even decided by the TTT.

 

[unsheath]

Stage is tailor made for a Moncoutie or Casar win. Well it better be as they're in the fantasy team.

If I was Saxo, I would let Frankie loose on the Col des Mosses and send him up the road. This will at least illicit a response from Zubeldia and Kloden and soften Astana up for a proper attack on Verbier. Hopefully Andy's not all talk and will let one rip.

It's hard to see any significant time gaps though. I just ain't hard enough.

 

[hfer07]

I truly believe George Hincapie is going to be in contention in today's stage.. he might get paced by LA to make up differences...

 

[vrusimov]

Stage is tailor made for a Moncoutie or Casar win. Well it better be as they're in the fantasy team.

If I was Saxo, I would let Frankie loose on the Col des Mosses and send him up the road. This will at least illicit a response from Zubeldia and Kloden and soften Astana up for a proper attack on Verbier. Hopefully Andy's not all talk and will let one rip.

It's hard to see any significant time gaps though. I just ain't hard enough.

...good points, though i think it's more the riders than the course...they decide how hard or easy it will be and for guys like Sastre, Evans, Vandevelde, and Schleck they are running out of room to roam...

...Evans' attacks, though fruitless on Arcalis, have been the lone episode of real aggression from the favorites...everyone else it seems is terrified of attacking the Astana phalanx...the further behind they are, the bigger the effort required and with 3 alpine stages and a time trial next week, nobody seems willing to risk burning too many matches, such is the fear of Mont Ventoux, where one can easily lose the Tour...it's as if everyone is banking on Ventoux as the route to final victory...

...that said, the attacks will have to come somewhere and i think Le Grand Bornand is ripe for an ambush with the Romme-Colombiere combo at the end followed by a very short, technical and steep descent...

...the question then becomes how do you beat the Armstrong-Contador combo...Armstrong looked strong on the Platzerwasel and was eager to sit at the head of affairs...he reminded me of Fignon in 1989...Contador was glued to his wheel and looked formidable himself...maybe the others really are scared to light the blue touch paper...an awesome one-two punch Astana has...i'm eager to see which one of the two will make the initial response to hard attacks from the other favorites...maybe both of them at the same time?...

...heck, maybe everyone is biding time until the time trial establishes the frame for Ventoux, in which case 2009 would go down as one of the most passive tours in recent years...

 

[BroDeal]

.
...Evans' attacks, though fruitless on Arcalis, have been the lone episode of real aggression from the favorites...everyone else it seems is terrified of attacking the Astana phalanx...the further behind they are, the bigger the effort required and with 3 alpine stages and a time trial next week, nobody seems willing to risk burning too many matches, such is the fear of Mont Ventoux, where one can easily lose the Tour...it's as if everyone is banking on Ventoux as the route to final victory...

Well, that is not going to work. Right now A. Schleck is the only non-Astana who has a chance of using Ventoux to win--and it is a slim one at that. Everyone else is too far behind to gain enough time on a single climb, even if it is Ventoux. After the time trial, Schleck will be far enough behind that he won't have the opportunity any more than the other contenders.