OK CN hive mind, Sosa or Ulissi?

This probably could be in the Gaming/Fantasy Cycling dept but this is a question for the broader hive mind, and considering their relative merits, rather than being about any niche fantasy game. It's a Giro thing.

Sosa and Ulissi cost the same in velogames Giro.

The rest of my team is set. Which of these should I go for? The old guy on home soil? The young turk with a lot to prove? (I know, he's not Turkish).

Help me out here.
 
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This probably could be in the Gaming/Fantasy Cycling dept but this is a question for the broader hive mind, and considering their relative merits, rather than being about any niche fantasy game. It's a Giro thing.

Sosa and Ulissi cost the same in velogames Giro.

The rest of my team is set. Which of these should I go for? The old guy on home soil? The young turk with a lot to prove? (I know, he's not Turkish).

Help me out here.
What's the scoring system? That will impact things greatly I think.
 
Sosa's problem as a GC threat is consistency, but a stage win in the high mountains is not out of the question. If you get good points for daily finishes then I'd probably think Ulissi because I'd back him to win a stage somewhere in an intermediate stage once he's away from the GC and breaks are being allowed to go, and I'm not sure I trust Sosa not to have a big jour sans somewhere that costs him a good GC position that would counter that even though he has the ability on paper to do better on GC and also challenge for a stage win in an important stage. Sosa is more of a wildcard pick, since he's been inconsistent to date but he is still only 24 so that could just be impetuousness or learning, Ulissi is perhaps less exciting a pick without the same potential upside, but also far less likely to wash out, so it depends on whether the remainder of your team gives you scope to gamble I guess.
 
How many places are awarded points on each stage? It makes a big difference if only top 10 are awarded points compared to top 50 for instance. How many points are rewarded for the final GC position in comparison to each stage is also very important. Last but not least, if there's a payout the structure is very important. If it's top heavy, you should be more inclined to go with the more risky rider who has a higher upside (Sosa).
 
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How many places are awarded points on each stage? It makes a big difference if only top 10 are awarded points compared to top 50 for instance. How many points are rewarded for the final GC position in comparison to each stage is also very important. Last but not least, if there's a payout the structure is very important. If it's top heavy, you should be more inclined to go with the more risky rider who has a higher upside (Sosa).
Daily points are 1st - 220 to 20th- 4
Daily GC 1st - 30 to 20th - 1
End GC 1st-600 to 30th - 5
Final Poinst 1st - 120 to 10th - 5
Final Mountains 1st - 120 to 10th - 5

There are other minor pints for "assists", "team", Cat climbs and being in the breakaway, but they are not so significant.

I still think Ulissi now though. Mainly because it's the Giro.
I do have other big hitters for GC already in Carapaz, Yates and Bardet. They're pretty obvious ... it's the team fillers that are tricky.
 
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This probably could be in the Gaming/Fantasy Cycling dept but this is a question for the broader hive mind, and considering their relative merits, rather than being about any niche fantasy game. It's a Giro thing.

Sosa and Ulissi cost the same in velogames Giro.

The rest of my team is set. Which of these should I go for? The old guy on home soil? The young turk with a lot to prove? (I know, he's not Turkish).

Help me out here.
Sosa has never been in the top40 of a WT stage race. He's an elite climber (for specific stages) and a very limited rider overall.
Stranger things have happened in cycling but I don't see much GC potential for him. Perhaps a stage win.

Ulissi on the other hand is generally very solid in his home race. Will guarantee you stage points here and there and might even finish the Giro in the top20. The only thing going against him is Almeida's GC ambitions.
 
Ulissi on the other hand is generally very solid in his home race. Will guarantee you stage points here and there and might even finish the Giro in the top20. The only thing going against him is Almeida's GC ambitions.
Makes me wonder when was the last time Ulissi rode a Giro with someone with serious GC ambition. Scarponi 2012? No one since then? And they're the biggest Italian team or sort of. I may be forgetting someone obvious, of course.
 
Daily points are 1st - 220 to 20th- 4
Daily GC 1st - 30 to 20th - 1
End GC 1st-600 to 30th - 5
Final Poinst 1st - 120 to 10th - 5
Final Mountains 1st - 120 to 10th - 5

There are other minor pints for "assists", "team", Cat climbs and being in the breakaway, but they are not so significant.

I still think Ulissi now though. Mainly because it's the Giro.
I do have other big hitters for GC already in Carapaz, Yates and Bardet. They're pretty obvious ... it's the team fillers that are tricky.
Honestly, I would strongly consider Sosa over Ulissi, despite it being an unpopular opinion here.

Taking a look at the last three participations of Ulissi in the Giro, his results in those three years that would score him points in your game are:

2021:

GC: 17
Stage results: 15, 5, 4, 12, 17

2020:

Stage results: 1, 20, 16, 1
Points classification: 7

2019:

Stage results: 15, 3, 17

To me that's not overly convincing. Of course if he wins two stages as he did in 2020, he'll likely be a better pick than Sosa, but Ulissi is not a rider who often finishes in the top 20 on stages. Also, Ulissi isn't getting any younger (well, nobody is, but he's not as good as he has been), and Sosa has seem kinda reborn this year.

Of course there are a lot of question marks hanging over Sosa, and I agree with everyone saying that he's not the obvious GC rider and it's likely that he will collaps at some point. I just think that the upside of Sosa is much higher than that of Ulissi and he's riding as a captain for the first time.

Looking at betting odds, the bookmakers (I looked at Bet365) assess Sosa's and Ulissi's chances of winning at least one stage almost equal (3.25 for Ulissi and 3.50 for Sosa), while Sosa is 2.50 to finish in the top 10 of the GC (Ulissi is 51.00 to finish in the top 10 of the GC).

Anyway, that's just my take on it. If you're risk averse, go for Ulissi, if you're risk tolerant go for Sosa would be my suggestion. Again, it depends on the potential payout. If finishing 3rd or 30th doesn't really matter much, I would lean towards the higher risk-higher upside pick in Sosa, but if the payout structure is much more flat, then that speaks for Ulissi.
 
Makes me wonder when was the last time Ulissi rode a Giro with someone with serious GC ambition. Scarponi 2012? No one since then? And they're the biggest Italian team or sort of. I may be forgetting someone obvious, of course.
Aru'2018? Although he was very bad towards the end of the race, he started it coming from top-5 in the previous year Tour and showing from in Tour of the Alps. And ended the Etna MTF in the main group of contenders.
 
Honestly, I would strongly consider Sosa over Ulissi, despite it being an unpopular opinion here.

Taking a look at the last three participations of Ulissi in the Giro, his results in those three years that would score him points in your game are:

2021:

GC: 17
Stage results: 15, 5, 4, 12, 17

2020:

Stage results: 1, 20, 16, 1
Points classification: 7

2019:

Stage results: 15, 3, 17

To me that's not overly convincing. Of course if he wins two stages as he did in 2020, he'll likely be a better pick than Sosa, but Ulissi is not a rider who often finishes in the top 20 on stages. Also, Ulissi isn't getting any younger (well, nobody is, but he's not as good as he has been), and Sosa has seem kinda reborn this year.

Of course there are a lot of question marks hanging over Sosa, and I agree with everyone saying that he's not the obvious GC rider and it's likely that he will collaps at some point. I just think that the upside of Sosa is much higher than that of Ulissi and he's riding as a captain for the first time.

Looking at betting odds, the bookmakers (I looked at Bet365) assess Sosa's and Ulissi's chances of winning at least one stage almost equal (3.25 for Ulissi and 3.50 for Sosa), while Sosa is 2.50 to finish in the top 10 of the GC (Ulissi is 51.00 to finish in the top 10 of the GC).

Anyway, that's just my take on it. If you're risk averse, go for Ulissi, if you're risk tolerant go for Sosa would be my suggestion. Again, it depends on the potential payout. If finishing 3rd or 30th doesn't really matter much, I would lean towards the higher risk-higher upside pick in Sosa, but if the payout structure is much more flat, then that speaks for Ulissi.
An interesting take on it. I was Sosa originally, switched to Ulissi and now, being a bit of a gambling sort, wonder if Sosa might spring a surprise.
Hmm.

Also in the mix ... though I had discounted for various reasons were
Formolo
Tulett
Mollema
Gaviria
Cort

Tulett has some appeal as he can TT and can climb well enough to win a stage, or be in the big points. Not sure he has Ulissi's consistency though. And he's INEOS, so probably hammering it for Carapaz.
 
An interesting take on it. I was Sosa originally, switched to Ulissi and now, being a bit of a gambling sort, wonder if Sosa might spring a surprise.
Hmm.

Also in the mix ... though I had discounted for various reasons were
Formolo
Tulett
Mollema
Gaviria
Cort

Tulett has some appeal as he can TT and can climb well enough to win a stage, or be in the big points. Not sure he has Ulissi's consistency though. And he's INEOS, so probably hammering it for Carapaz.
If you haven't already got him I would consider arensman. He'll be working for Bardet but was very impressive in tour of the alps.
 
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I would give 1 big point to Sosa today. The fact that he only lost 4" surprised me a lot!!!

Yesterday he was giving interviews and he was saying that he was excited to be the leader and happy with Movistar that gave him the opportunity to fight for GC and that he was ready. LOL.
Later they told someone from the Movistar coaches (don't remember his name) and he was flabbergasted. "He said what?"
What is Movistar going to do when Valverde retires?

BTW, everyone knows that Sosa losses time everywhere and lacks endurance for GC. But the fact that he is motivated and that he is doing well this year should not be ignored or downplayed by Movistar.
 
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