Olympic Road Race Men

May 17, 2009
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Is there really no thread for the race on Saturday? I found one for the ITT and for the women, but none for the main event... If there is one, let me know.

Anyways: What are your predictions for the race? Who is your favourite?

For me it's a bit of a puzzle. How hard is the route? It's partially up to the peleton to make the race hard enough to drop Cav (as he is the biggest favourite), and he will certainly be struggling on the last laps of Box Hill. But there's about 50k left after they climb the hill for the last time, surely that must be enough time for Wiggo and the other TT monsters to reel in the break? Or maybe not...

Remember that there are no radios, so a break is more difficult to control, which means the genaral pace will be harder from the start. Also, the other teams must have learned from Copenhagen, where they played right into the hands of Team Cav, and failed to make it a selective race.

How many riders will get away on the hill? 5? Then they are doomed. 20? That's another ballgame.

The real problem for the likes of Italy, Spain, Belgium etc is that the race must be hard enough to drop Cav, but not too hard, as the final group needs to have a certain size in order to make it to the finish... And Sagan is guaranteed to be in, say a 20 man group. Then what? Pull Sagan to the line and hand him the win? Or wait for GBR at hand Cav the win? It's obvously not as clear cut as that, but a difficult race to plan for the others.
 
jrolaf said:
Is there really no thread for the race on Saturday? I found one for the ITT and for the women, but none for the main event... If there is one, let me know.

Anyways: What are your predictions for the race? Who is your favourite?

For me it's a bit of a puzzle. How hard is the route? It's partially up to the peleton to make the race hard enough to drop Cav (as he is the biggest favourite), and he will certainly be struggling on the last laps of Box Hill. But there's about 50k left after they climb the hill for the last time, surely that must be enough time for Wiggo and the other TT monsters to reel in the break? Or maybe not...

Remember that there are no radios, so a break is more difficult to control, which means the genaral pace will be harder from the start. Also, the other teams must have learned from Copenhagen, where they played right into the hands of Team Cav, and failed to make it a selective race.

How many riders will get away on the hill? 5? Then they are doomed. 20? That's another ballgame.

The real problem for the likes of Italy, Spain, Belgium etc is that the race must be hard enough to drop Cav, but not too hard, as the final group needs to have a certain size in order to make it to the finish... And Sagan is guaranteed to be in, say a 20 man group. Then what? Pull Sagan to the line and hand him the win? Or wait for GBR at hand Cav the win? It's obvously not as clear cut as that, but a difficult race to plan for the others.
There is London.
 
Sep 24, 2011
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jrolaf said:
Also, the other teams must have learned from Copenhagen, where they played right into the hands of Team Cav, and failed to make it a selective race.
Apparently not.

So far, only the Belgians seem definitely committed to making it a selective race.

The Aussies and Italians seem entirely committed to the 'wait and see strategy' that caused them to screw up in Copenhagen.

Others seem willing to support GB in resisting selection.
 
May 17, 2009
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Maaaaaaaarten said:
The Dutch want to make it selective too, with Terpstra, Langeveld and Boom.
I bet Team Spartacus plans to induce some serious pain as well...
 
Mar 15, 2009
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The main aspect to consider is the reduced number of team members in the Olympic race compared to other races. That will make it more difficult to control it.
 
May 28, 2012
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Tei6chai said:
Apparently not.

So far, only the Belgians seem definitely committed to making it a selective race.

The Aussies and Italians seem entirely committed to the 'wait and see strategy' that caused them to screw up in Copenhagen.

Others seem willing to support GB in resisting selection.
The Swiss and Dutch team also lack a sprinter, they also have to attack. Problem is that if there's a break with Boonen, it's not going to last very long.
You have to be stupid to bring him to the finish line with you :rolleyes: The longer I think about this race the more I assume it'll be a sprint.
 
Oct 23, 2011
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Pentacycle said:
The Swiss and Dutch team also lack a sprinter, they also have to attack. Problem is that if there's a break with Boonen, it's not going to last very long.
You have to be stupid to bring him to the finish line with you :rolleyes: The longer I think about this race the more I assume it'll be a sprint.
Boonen just needs to get in a break with Cancellara and Gesink; they seem to be the types to race anyway. :D

Also an epic duel between Canc and Boonen would be awesome, since we didn't get to see them face off in the spring classics, so I really hope they attack together.
 
Oct 17, 2010
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DominicDecoco said:
Anyone had luck with finding a profile of the race?
I dont' remmember from which blog I took this. But have it bookmarked for a while. That would be the Women's profile though (They'll only do Box Hill circuit two times as opposed to nine times for the men's)
 
Feb 17, 2012
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canyonball said:
I dont' remmember from which blog I took this. But have it bookmarked for a while. That would be the Women's profile though (They'll only do Box Hill circuit two times as opposed to nine times for the men's)
Cheers for that.
 
May 17, 2009
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Lance Armstrong said:
Add Sagan to that list. I doubt the race will be selective enough. Group of 100 with all the main sprinters there :(
Hope you are wrong, but fear you are right....
 
Oct 17, 2010
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VO2 Max said:
Someone has mapped it at mapmyride:

(edit - partly ninja'ed by canyonball, but this is the full route with the 9x up Box Hill)
I respectfully accept defeat, sensei. I shall put "my" link on the womens thread. Thanks for the info.
 
Favourites IMO, probably forgot someone that should get a mention.

***** Cavendish
**** Sagan, Greipel
*** Goss, Cancellara, Boonen
** Gilbert, EBH, Degenkolb, Breschel
* Modolo, Farrar, Nibali; Gerrans, Terpstra
 
Apr 23, 2012
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I would like to see Nibali, Cancellara, Boonen, Freire, Hagen and Sagan attacking together with some other strong riders - and then we will see. A group of 20 - 30 strong riders will come toghether to London. In that case there is opportunity for most of them as Cancellara can still attack in the last few km from that group, others will be strong in sprint of that group, etc. Important is to see interesting racing with winner from your country - Sagan in my case. If it goes to mass sprint - then Cav is winner for sure.
 
May 17, 2009
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kanari said:
Favourites IMO, probably forgot someone that should get a mention.

***** Cavendish
**** Sagan, Greipel
*** Goss, Cancellara, Boonen
** Gilbert, EBH, Degenkolb, Breschel
* Modolo, Farrar, Nibali; Gerrans, Terpstra
I'd throw a Spaniard in the mix. Both LLS and Valverde seemed to be in good shape the last week of the tour...
 
Apr 23, 2012
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jrolaf said:
I'd throw a Spaniard in the mix. Both LLS and Valverde seemed to be in good shape the last week of the tour...
Sagan will better stay hungry when in break with LLS :). But yes LLS has nice chance.
 
Oct 16, 2009
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VO2 Max said:
Someone has mapped it at mapmyride:
http://www.mapmyride.com/routes/view/115816269


Box Hill 4.58 km @3.4% (x9, final time finishes 48.9km from the finish)

(edit - partly ninja'ed by canyonball, but this is the full route with the 9x up Box Hill)
That's it? That's like a speed bump for these riders, and when it's climbed for the last time 50 km from the finish... ****ing pointless.
 
I expect the Germans (Greipel), Aussies (Goss) and possibly the U.S.A (Farrar) to help GB reel in any break that will get away over the 9 climbs of Box hill. These nations' best chance of gold is a bunch sprint and anything can happen in those final 500 metres.

80% sure this will end in a sprint but as its a one-off race there could be a suprise.
 

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