Paris-Nice 2012 - Stage 5; Onet-le-Chateau - Mende (178.5 km)

[FF'Wilco]

Queen stage of this year's Paris Nice!

map:

profile:

Mende:

2007 results:
1. Contador
2. Rebelin +2
3. Lopez Garcia +12

6. F. Schleck +28
8. Leipheimer +33
12. Chavanel +43

2010 results:
1. Contador
2. S. Sanchez +10
2. J. Rodriguez +18

8. L.L. Sanchez +28
10. Coppel +37
12. Chavanel +44
28. Leipheimer +1:08

GC favourities:
1 Bradley WIGGINS SKY PROCYCLING 13:30:52
2 Levi LEIPHEIMER OMEGA PHARMA-QUICK STEP 0:00:06
3 Tejay VAN GARDEREN BMC RACING TEAM 0:00:11
4 Sylvain CHAVANEL OMEGA PHARMA-QUICK STEP 0:00:14
5 Maxime MONFORT RADIOSHACK-NISSAN 0:00:18

7 Alejandro VALVERDE MOVISTAR TEAM 0:00:20
10 Robert KISERLOVSKI ASTANA PRO TEAM 0:00:36
12 Arnold JEANNESSON FDJ-BIGMAT 0:00:52
14 Gustav LARSSON VACANSOLEIL-DCM 0:02:31
17 Jérôme COPPEL SAUR-SOJASUN 0:02:46
20 Luis-Leon SANCHEZ RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM 0:03:00
21 Laurens TEN DAM RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM 0:03:01
23 Daniel NAVARRO TEAM SAXO BANK 0:03:07
25 Eros CAPECCHI LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE 0:03:09
26 Rigoberto URAN SKY PROCYCLING 0:03:12
27 Nicolas ROCHE AG2R LA MONDIALE 0:03:12
35 Damiano CUNEGO LAMPRE - ISD 0:03:28
38 Bauke MOLLEMA RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM 0:03:37

 

[Fetisoff]

Wasn't Valverde 2nd in 2010???

So yeah, I won't be original - Valverde FTW

Spilak to surprise and top-5

 

[Panda Claws]

Thomas De Gendt.

 

[luckyboy]

Yeah hard to see past Valverde for this.

 

[will10]

It's a nice stage but it goes a long way to showing how poor this year's route is when this is the queen stage.

 

[halamala]

Tour de France 1995, La Croix Neuve (~3.1 Km, 10.1 %)

Pantani, Indurain, Riis : 8:40 (record time)

Stage winner's time might be over 60 secords slower tomorrow (~9:50).

 

[theyoungest]

Barring crashes or bad luck: Valverde. About the only specialist for this kind of finish in the race.

 

[scullster46]

Tour de France 1995, La Croix Neuve (~3.1 Km, 10.1 %)

Pantani, Indurain, Riis : 8:40 (record time)

Stage winner's time might be over 60 secords slower tomorrow (~9:50).

video of that

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O71bQBwSayE

 

[greatking88]

I 'll go for a breakaway to stay away somehow with the likes of Voekler, Mollema, Anton, Gerrans, Casar, Barredo, Di Gregorio and maybe De Gendt!!(Taaramae)

Otherwise Valverde for the win!

 

[Duartista]

Wasn't Valverde 2nd in 2010???

So yeah, I won't be original - Valverde FTW

Spilak to surprise and top-5

That 2nd place has been erased from history.

 

[Parrulo]

I 'll go for a breakaway to stay away somehow with the likes of Voekler, Mollema, Anton, Gerrans, Casar, Barredo, Di Gregorio and maybe De Gendt!!(Taaramae)

Otherwise Valverde for the win!

no way in hell will movistar allow a break to stay clear with bonus secs on the line. The question imo isn't who is going to win, that's clearly piti, the question is how well will wiggins manage his losses? he can win PN before we even get to the itt with a good performance here but since he is a diesel for the longer climbs i will say he will lose about 30 secs+ bonus to valverde which should make the final itt super interesting.

 

[Richeypen]

no way in hell will movistar allow a break to stay clear with bonus secs on the line. The question imo isn't who is going to win, that's clearly piti, the question is how well will wiggins manage his losses? he can win PN before we even get to the itt with a good performance here but since he is a diesel for the longer climbs i will say he will lose about 30 secs+ bonus to valverde which should make the final itt super interesting.

Going to be interesting. Wiggins was only 20 seconds off the pace on stages 5 and 8 of the Vuelta and they were proper walls. The climb tomorrow is quite a bit longer though.

 

[Frosty]

Results from 2010

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/paris-nice-2010/stage-4/results

Valverde was second, 10 seconds down on Contador. Only beat Voeckler, Cunego, Kreuziger by 10 seconds, Taaramae by 20 seconds.

Wiggins finished 11th on the Mur de Bretagne in the tour 2011. Would like to see how Uran could go on this climb but i get the feeling he will be pacing Wiggins.

 

[roundabout]

Wiggins will glide up the slopes to a beautiful victory.

 

[Bubban]

The weather might be a big factor tomorrow

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin...ry=zmw:00000.1.07561&yday=67&weekday=Thursday

 

[greatking88]

no way in hell will movistar allow a break to stay clear with bonus secs on the line. The question imo isn't who is going to win, that's clearly piti, the question is how well will wiggins manage his losses? he can win PN before we even get to the itt with a good performance here but since he is a diesel for the longer climbs i will say he will lose about 30 secs+ bonus to valverde which should make the final itt super interesting.

I'm not sure Movistar can control the break too well. They were left with only rojas in front of Valverde for the sprint with 3km to go today, they messed the sprint up a bit in my opinion but we ll see, I do think Valverde will win the stage but i would like to see a strong break give it a go

 

[cycladianpirate]

First off - thanks to Wilco for taking the trouble to set up the thread. I'm afraid that I just assume that someone will do it and wait...

My view is that Wiggins will get to know Valverde's rear wheel very well - right to the end of the stage.

 

[Flamin]

Valverde is in good shape, Wiggins in great shape.

I say piti gains max 15".

 

[Froome19]

7 Alejandro VALVERDE MOVISTAR TEAM 0:00:20
10 Robert KISERLOVSKI ASTANA PRO TEAM 0:00:36
12 Arnold JEANNESSON FDJ-BIGMAT 0:00:52
14 Gustav LARSSON VACANSOLEIL-DCM 0:02:31
17 Jérôme COPPEL SAUR-SOJASUN 0:02:46
20 Luis-Leon SANCHEZ RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM 0:03:00
21 Laurens TEN DAM RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM 0:03:01
23 Daniel NAVARRO TEAM SAXO BANK 0:03:07
25 Eros CAPECCHI LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE 0:03:09
26 Rigoberto URAN SKY PROCYCLING 0:03:12
27 Nicolas ROCHE AG2R LA MONDIALE 0:03:12
35 Damiano CUNEGO LAMPRE - ISD 0:03:28
38 Bauke MOLLEMA RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM 0:03:37

You missed out Spilak hes placed perfectly at 8th and has been looking pretty good, and he looked pretty good at andalucia and has a history of being of valverde's leavings.
The whole fight between the top 3 + OMPQS + Valverde means it may be a perfect oppostunity for a well timed attack. Uran looked strong today and he very well may be able to counter anything valverde throws unless its in the last 500m, so attacks before that may be the ones which actually stick even though the climb doesnt really suit it.

 

[Escarabajo]

This type of finish fits Uran very well. But he has to be by Wiggins side anyway.

 

[stefrees]

This type of finish fits Uran very well. But he has to be by Wiggins side anyway.

Wouldn't be surprised if Porte stays with wiggins and they let uran go for win to try and keep valverde from getting more bonus seconds

 

[Mellow Velo]

The weather might be a big factor tomorrow

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin...ry=zmw:00000.1.07561&yday=67&weekday=Thursday

Still, better than in 2010!

 

[Mambo95]

Wouldn't be surprised if Porte stays with wiggins and they let uran go for win to try and keep valverde from getting more bonus seconds

I'm not so sure. I think they'll not be too worried by the bonus seconds and focus on minimising loses. (Although, there may not necessarily be loses - no-one really knows what sort of current form everyone has on a climb like this).

 

[Froome19]

I'm not so sure. I think they'll not be too worried by the bonus seconds and focus on minimising loses. (Although, there may not necessarily be loses - no-one really knows what sort of current form everyone has on a climb like this).

Yeh for Sky its all about minimising losses, Wiggins knows that if he heads into the TT level or even in slight arrears to valverde he should win GC, so time bonuses are fixed and they are only 10 seconds so Wiggins wont be too worried about them as losing only 10 possibly a bit more will still put him in prime position for a GC win, meanwhile if valverde can do damage and put time into wiggins then there may be a whole different story. Uran looked like he was one of the strongest today and so i believe he will given the role of chief domestique and will protect wiggins and try and pull back valverde if and when he attacks.
Of course i still think Wiggins is on good enough form to ride everybody of his wheel, but we'll see.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Wouldn't be surprised if Porte stays with wiggins and they let uran go for win to try and keep valverde from getting more bonus seconds

that would be smart but sky are probably to coward to do so. uran despite 0 racing days looks quite good to me and better by the day. as always he gets into shape quicker even than freire.