Paris - Roubaix 2021 (03.10)

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Whatever the weather, the cobbles will be humid, and potentially with much more vegetation between them. DQS seem way overpowered - I wouldn't want to assign leaders with that team. I think anyone of them have a shot at winning. Even Declercq, with the good old 'breakaway of the day that is never caught back' move (who would chase that break if Declercq is in it, besides?).
 
I wonder if Colbrelli just isn't over his peak right now. I reckon flying during Benelux was too early for the Worlds and especially Roubaix.
He was the only one able to answer on the first hard attack of Alaphilippe. Yeah, but I think he is a bit over his peak.

I also believe, that Bahrain should have send him to Tre Valli Varesine and Gran Piemonte and then go for Lombardia. In his Eneco or Euro shape, he would have been a serious contender for all of these races. Or go for Paris-Tours instead, which they aren't even racing.

With riding Roubaix for the first time, his season will be more or less over after Sunday.
 
But what are the odds of Sep being in the half not having issues?
Honestly, I don't know how he's doing on wet cobbles. But he got 6th in 2018, 4th in 2019 and 5th in the 2021 Tour of Flanders.
He was doing a good Vuelta until he crashed out and is clearly only trying to peak for Roubaix ever since.
So he'll be up there in the mix (barring bad luck), and just a simple reasoning: there are 14 (+ let's say 3 riders from DQS, makes it 17) riders in that list of favourites. It's a bit strange to overlook a constant top 10 finisher (even top 5 and podium). I also think he won't win, but he has a better shot, just going by results, than half of the names in that list (Colbrelli, Kristoff, Naesen, Kung, + I don't see a fading Degenkolb doing well after crashing out in the worlds, I don't see van Baarle doing any better than his best, which was 16th, just because he did very well in the world's...).

So if that list has to have some filler material, I reckon Vanmarcke should be in there.
 
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A shame Ala isn't riding this race in this kind of shape. He is french and one of the key element of the Roubaix is taking risks. They can safe some of the heavier guys like Asgreen and Senechal for the finale.

I almost think he has a better chance here than in the new climber's Lombardia.
 
A shame Ala isn't riding this race in this kind of shape. He is french and one of the key element of the Roubaix is taking risks. They can safe some of the heavier guys like Asgreen and Senechal for the finale.

I almost think he has a better chance here than in the new climber's Lombardia.
He's simply too light for the cobbles and the risk of injury is too high. Makes no sense to ride it as a dom.
 

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