Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[saunaking]

Everybody expects him to win and we are not talking about year 2031.



It's a reason it's called child labour, up to and including a certain age. True that Seixas is just above that mark and true that he is making some good money, but money here just makes it worse. In terms of expectations from future teenagers. As for what i believe or not and what mine opinion on some matter is or is not. That is reserved for me, to make that judgement. You can persuade me otherwise, through discussion, and that is all.

In short for me it's horrific and i don't support this. Seixas is borderline case and next one will be underage. And that is just beyond for this to be allowed. Big teams having child farms and exploiting them in such manner.

Wow you are passionate about this.
But lets be real. He is not expected to win, you can't make it so by repeating it.
Look at the betting odds, Tadej is an overwhelming favorite and Seixas at 5-1 is a pretty low probability.

What's wrong with child labour? In my Country its common for kids to get jobs while in High School.

You also against 18 and 19 year old marginalized kids from poor crappy backgrounds getting paid to play sports?

 

[CyclistAbi]

When I was 19 if you had asked me to do practically anything and get to ride the Tour, I'd have done it. Seixas wants to ride the Tour, as much, if not more so, than his team wants him to ride it. There is no exploitation or a abuse going on here. And there is no danger of seeing teens regularly ride the Tour, unless ones of his talent suddenly become abundant.

I mean Seixas is here now and he gets to ride the Tour, as leader of his team and riding for GC with expectations to at minimum podium. The problem is the process that got him here. If this is some new norm then age bans is what i will advocate for in the future. 21 likely being the lowest age of consent for winning the Tour. Below that to not be possible in the first place.

Wow you are passionate about this.
But lets be real. He is not expected to win, you can't make it so by repeating it.
Look at the betting odds, Tadej is an overwhelming favorite and Seixas at 5-1 is a pretty low probability.

What's wrong with child labour? In my Country its common for kids to get jobs while in High School.

You also against 18 and 19 year old marginalized kids from poor crappy backgrounds getting paid to play sports?

Of course we should be passionate about our youth and of course if Seixas won't perform good he will be under much scrutiny. Everything is wrong with child labour and there is a huge difference in between baby sitting and winning the Tour as a teenager.

Anyway, it is what it is now, as for the future, if this is some trend and big teams plan to go even further with this, then rules will be made forbidding them to do that.

 

[CyclistAbi]

As for the fans, likely some would cheer for 11 year old too. So when it comes to fans one has to be vary a bit. Not to take it too seriously.

 

[Extinction]

I mean Seixas is here now and he gets to ride the Tour, as leader of his team and riding for GC with expectations to at minimum podium. The problem is the process that got him here. If this is some new norm then age bans is what i will advocate for in the future. 21 likely being the lowest age of consent for winning the Tour. Below that to not be possible in the first place.

Who are you to set limits on people? I've rarely seen such arrogance on this forum. I'm not sure what you are insinuating, but if Pog is the litmus test then take it to the clinic.

 

[Unchained]

I mean Seixas is here now and he gets to ride the Tour, as leader of his team and riding for GC with expectations to at minimum podium. The problem is the process that got him here. If this is some new norm then age bans is what i will advocate for in the future. 21 likely being the lowest age of consent for winning the Tour. Below that to not be possible in the first place.



Of course we should be passionate about our youth and of course if Seixas won't perform good he will be under much scrutiny. Everything is wrong with child labour and there is a huge difference in between baby sitting and winning the Tour as a teenager.

Anyway, it is what it is now, as for the future, if this is some trend and big teams plan to go even further with this, then rules will be made forbidding them to do that.

I have not read anything to support this type of opinion. Paul Seixas has every normal stereotype for his age. Don't know how many years from 19 you are, but at 19 you want to do everything, feel a misguided sense of indestructible, totally normal behavior that I see from Seixas. I have not read anything about him saying podium or winning. He has remained pretty realistic, reasonable, responsible for his age in my opinion. I feel that lots of the expectations are just fans, pundits projecting ,,from what I have read and seen, the circle around Seixas is just optimistic, excited.. Again normal stuff in my opinion.
Today has to be another strange stroke of luck for Seixas, and Vingegaard as UAE is again laying all over the ground. Jan Christen was a bright spot but UAE has been devastated ..who knows what Del Toro will have, Wellens? Now Yates, Vine, Soler all banged up..
Seixas might have a decent team just by staying healthy and out of trouble.

 

[memyselfandI]

He ain't a child anymore, barely a teenager but close to an adult man, physiologically . There's a lot of science papers go read for yourself. The testosterone levels reach adult levels 16-17 yrs in 'boys to men' and the ability to handle training loads safely is practically adult soon after that

Biological clock of course is personal thing. A 17-year-old who has already finished growing and has good amount of years of good base training and racing might be ready for heavier loads than a 19-year-old "late bloomer" who just started the sport.

So he is surfing at the right edge of the wave, it's evolution, we and/or science know more now.

What we truly don't know is how heavy or easy schedule he's going to have late season, how he really targets the Tour, like if team suddenly takes him out from racing, because of markers showing need for the rest. Pretty sure imho there is some wisdom behind there not going to burn him out but playing the long game.

 

[Unchained]

I really don't see any reason for young racers to face restrictions, and if they are to be governed, relegated 18 would be the traditional cutoff, not 21. For decades, decades there are age restrictions for safety about race distances and gear restrictions for juniors. I have officiated races were a junior racer will race event for their age group, swap wheel or bike and use senior gears for the 18 and above race. 21 is 3 years post restricted gears which is a long time.. And to be real, almost all juniors I have seen use seniors gears for training anyway.. I really don't know if technically or physiological that the rational for gear restrictions really hold up anymore anyway.. Lots of 15,16 year old guys are super, super strong and are pushing 52,53s regularly and I don't see evidence that they are blowing out the gristle on their legs. Again not scientific, just what I think I see.
I also don't typically ask teenagers about the condition of their legs or if they are experiencing pain from pushing big gears, grinding 5-700 k training weeks

 

[KoopaCycling]

He'll be racing like a regular pro from now on. Like it or not. After these results and the intent to podium and fight for a Tour win. The gloves are off.
That's not to say his parents and family should stop making sure this kid is not getting bad influence. Obviously 19 ain't 25. But from now on he's a pro athlete.
With all the fortune and misfortune that comes with it. That is just the way it is.

 

[Tonton]

The bottom line is that Pogacar will win this bike race, Jonas will have the excuse that he rode Il Giro, Remco will be The Black Album. Seixas will be in the middle.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Who are you to set limits on people? I've rarely seen such arrogance on this forum. I'm not sure what you are insinuating, but if Pog is the litmus test then take it to the clinic.

I already explained myself, that is i don't support big teams introducing "science" to teenagers, making them ready to win Tour de France as teenagers. Couldn't care less if fans are OK with that or not. And for having this opinion note that i don't have to ask for anybody's permission or similar. You can for example try to change someone opinion, through discussion, beyond that i don't see the point. So.

@Unchained

Paul said he will race for GC, fans expect good result. The issue i see is not a 19 year old kid winning the Tour, the issue is what came before that, when he was still underage. To get him in this position. So yeah, 21 is a reasonable limit, for pros in this sport. Paul can still bonk, and that i guess will stop the trend for now. And we won't have to discuss it in more detail for now.

We'll see.

@memyselfandI

Biologically we know that peak comes much latter in this sport. The title of this thread for example projects the expectation to 2031. And as said it's not just about Paul, it's a dangerous trend and it makes sense to stop it before it even starts. For those who don't agree, no real issue there, we'll see on how it goes.

 

[CyclistAbi]

The bottom line is that Pogacar will win this bike race, Jonas will have the excuse that he rode Il Giro, Remco will be The Black Album. Seixas will be in the middle.

That is a rather high expectation, isn't it?

 

[Tonton]

That is a rather high expectation, isn't it?

These are high expectations, but we're talking about Paul Seixas here. His age doesn't matter: he's as good or better now than Pinot or Bardet ever were. The podium has to be the objective, and Paul can do it. But he needs to learn from Pogacar's mistakes: don't be the puppy chasing every butterfly...stick to Teddy's wheel for as long as you can. By then Remco is out of the picture...it's between him and Jonas for second unless someone pulls a Chiappuccino.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Tonton

Of course, Paul is here and i wish him well and am happy for France. Lets see how it goes.

 

[Extinction]

I already explained myself, that is i don't support big teams introducing "science" to teenagers, making them ready to win Tour de France as teenagers. Couldn't care less if fans are OK with that or not. And for having this opinion note that i don't have to ask for anybody's permission or similar. You can for example try to change someone opinion, through discussion, beyond that i don't see the point. So.

Well, that genie, "science," has been let out of the bottle a long time ago. It can, and is, introduced to teenagers with their enthusiastic consent. The point is you can't resist change, but only adapt to it. At the same time, only one with huge talent such as Seixas can maximize such adaptation with full effect. In other words, not every nighnteen year-old can digest what's needed to enter the Tour in high standing. Let's say you had the talent and adaptability to go to the Tour with confidence and ambition at 19. Would you say no, just because of your age? I don't think so. It's all part of the circus anyway.

 

[BahamontesPhantom]

1. Pog
2. Jonas
3. Lipo
4. Sexy
5. Remco

If Tom Pidcock is fit he’s in there somewhere

 

[vappa]

These are high expectations, but we're talking about Paul Seixas here. His age doesn't matter: he's as good or better now than Pinot or Bardet ever were. The podium has to be the objective, and Paul can do it. But he needs to learn from Pogacar's mistakes: don't be the puppy chasing every butterfly...stick to Teddy's wheel for as long as you can. By then Remco is out of the picture...it's between him and Jonas for second unless someone pulls a Chiappuccino.

I think that would be mistake. If you see you are on the limit, let go and ride your own pace. Unless of course there's 300m of climbing left, then do whatever possible to stay on the wheel. Otherwise that's a surefire way to blow up completely

 

[BahamontesPhantom]

Do other countries have gear restrictions for Juniors ?
Pog would have won the tour in his nappy if you believe half of his fans

 

[Berniece]

Do other countries have gear restrictions for Juniors ?

Yes

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Extinction

Yeah, lets see first on how it goes. A GT is a special kind of beast.

 

[YavorD]

@Extinction

Yeah, lets see first on how it goes. A GT is a special kind of beast.

I think this gets slightly overrated. If a ruder shows a similar level (of dominating) in races, he rarely suffers in GT's.
Richie Porte, to some extent, but I think crashes were the reason, not that his level dips.


Okay, for what we know he may struggle on the long(er) climbs, which could be the reason for his downfall, but I see no evidence to suggest that.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@YavorD

I imagine the goal will be to win it and i just don't see on where Paul could have gotten that level of experience to pull that off, considering the field. So i assume mistakes will be made and that will likely come down to time being lost. But i guess that is still OK, you have to learn the GT trade somewhere.

 

[YavorD]

@YavorD

I imagine the goal will be to win it and i just don't see on where Paul could have gotten that level of experience to pull that off, considering the field. So i assume mistakes will be made and that will likely come down to time being lost. But i guess that is still OK, you have to learn the GT trade somewhere.

The goal isn't to win it this year. No one ever said that the goal is to win it this year.
Also experience is overrated IMO. Contador won his second Tour, Bernal and Vingegaard as well, Pogacar won his first.
This Tour will likely be ridden full gas, it won't be the tactics or experience speaking, it will be the overall level and the legs. Seixas has shown to have both.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@YavorD

We'll see. In short and IMHO the aim is to win it and as such lack of experience will likely cost him an additional place or two, compared to what he would achieve normally, already having a wealth of experience, on when it comes to GT racing. He can even bonk completely and i guess that is OK too. If he wins it, then cycling as we knew it is over. Then it will be hard to keep teenagers away from the Tour.

 

[YavorD]

@YavorD

We'll see. In short and IMHO the aim is to win it and as such lack of experience will likely cost him an additional place or two, compared to what he would achieve normally, already having a wealth of experience, on when it comes to GT racing.

Yes, the (medium-long tern) aim is to win it.
The aim this year isn't to win it. If you think it is, it is your imagination rather than the actual fact.
If his level doesn't drop, his inexperience won't matter.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@YavorD

Paul said he will race for GC.