Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Rackham]

He's clearly not at 100%. My assumption is he's overtrained and the crash in Dauphine surely didnt help either.

I don't want to put too much stock in this 4th. While its somewhat impressive, most people obviously expected more, and with Jonas and Florian finishing the race, I think its a 6th. I saw what I saw in the spring and stuff like that Gaudu hasn't even sniffed at. So while the comparison makes sense on paper, it really doesn't in reality IMO. Gaudu is just far, far, far more limited and a much less talent than Seixas.

I understand why you guys are being harsh, but I wouldn't worry just yet. If he looks the same in 2027, its bad, but I don't expect that in a million years either. Surely with this year he has had and this Tour, there's still a lot to optimize in regards to performing at 100% in July. And thats not even considering natural progression.

I get your point entirely, although to be fair Gaudu did sniff at Pog and Vinge back in Paris-Nice 2023.

The negative read on Seixas is that he hit his peak way too early in the season and then basically just held it until the summer. Then the question is whether his spring peak would have allowed for a better result in the Tour if he'd peaked for July instead of April? I don't know tbh. Results can look lopsided when a rider brings the firepower to a race that others are using as prep.

Even Liège in hindsight isn't that much of a big deal because clearly Evenepoel in particular had way more in the tank to give than what he showed that day.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

Sign the biggest contract you can before your value regresses to the mean next year.

Remember, a few months ago we were saying that Del Toro wasn't a Grand Tour rider. His first Vuelta was, directly, mediocre.
Not to mention Vingegaard; early on, in 2019-20 it looked like he was going to be a Danish Majka. Seixas still has plenty of room to develop.

I said it after Liège, Seixas might have been overtrained, he did a altitude training block in spring that others only do for a Tour. It´s why his climbing advantage over the rest of the field was so significant. Excessive expectations play a part in this, too. But setting that aside, there is still a lot to see before we can determine whether or not he´ll overpaid, future Tour winner or a better Gaudu version.

 

[Red Rick]

I legit don't think Seixas even hit the level he was this spring.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I get your point entirely, although to be fair Gaudu did sniff at Pog and Vinge back in Paris-Nice 2023.

The negative read on Seixas is that he hit his peak way too early in the season and then basically just held it until the summer. Then the question is whether his spring peak would have allowed for a better result in the Tour if he'd peaked for July instead of April? I don't know tbh. Results can look lopsided when a rider brings the firepower to a race that others are using as prep.

Even Liège in hindsight isn't that much of a big deal because clearly Evenepoel in particular had way more in the tank to give than what he showed that day.

True, in one race, and in Vingegaard's worst stage race since pre 2021 Tour or something like that. No match for Pogi obviously.

What he did in Pais Basque was Vingegaard esque. Strade Bianche was incredibly, even dropping Del Toro who had wheelsucked him entire race. F-W is F-W, but still a great victory, but again, I saw what I saw on Redoute. Nobody outside of Seixas could pull that off - I have seen no one even remotely close at doing that outside of Jonas in peak shape in TdF on similar climbs, but thats not Redoute and LBL, and that particular attack was also deeper than usual.

I think we need to chill and wait until 2027 to draw major conclusions. He, his trainers and his team must have learned A LOT.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

I would add that, looking at the level shown by Prodhomme, I don't remember him climbing like this, and Benoot in the mountains (similar to his form at Visma in 2023, and after serious injury), Mühlberger in the form of his life. Decathlon is performing at very high level. I doubt Seixas hasn't already reached a very high level of performance this year, so I don't expect an exaggerated leap forward, especially, regarding his spring level. He needs to adjust hes peak level during the season.

 

[vappa]

Remember, a few months ago we were saying that Del Toro wasn't a Grand Tour rider. His first Vuelta was, directly, mediocre.
Not to mention Vingegaard; early on, in 2019-20 it looked like he was going to be a Danish Majka. Seixas still has plenty of room to develop.

I said it after Liège, Seixas might have been overtrained, he did a altitude training block in spring that others only do for a Tour. It´s why his climbing advantage over the rest of the field was so significant. Excessive expectations play a part in this, too. But setting that aside, there is still a lot to see before we can determine whether or not he´ll overpaid, future Tour winner or a better Gaudu version.

Of all those 3, Seixas has, by far, the least room to develop. Name 1 thing (apart from sprinting) where he isn't world class already

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

True, in one race, and in Vingegaard's worst stage race since pre 2021 Tour or something like that. No watch for Pogi obviously.

What he did in Pais Basque was Vingegaard esque. Strade Bianche was incredibly, even dropping Del Toro who had wheelsucked him entire race. F-W is F-W, but still a great victory, but again, I saw what I saw on Redoute. Nobody outside of Seixas could pull that off - I have seen no one even remotely close at doing that outside of Jonas in peak shape in TdF on similar climbs, but thats not Redoute and LBL, and that particular attack was also deeper than usual.

I think we need to chill and wait until 2027 to draw major conclusions. He, his trainers and his team must have learned A LOT.

You’re right; although, aside from Visma riders. who lives at altitude all year, there aren't that many roders who spend two months at altitude in the winter without seeing their girlfriends, only to do it all over again after the Algarve, training for the spring classics as if they were the Tour de France.

They need to manage that better, or else he’ll just turn into an upgraded version of Ayuso—a rider whose performance peaks much early season.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

Of all those 3, Seixas has, by far, the least room to develop. Name 1 thing (apart from sprinting) where he isn't world class already

I don't think there's much room for improvement regarding his level in spring, but there certainly is for the Tour if he manages his peak form and training.

As for that margin, did Remco have room for improvement? After all, his climbing level was mediocre until June this year, yet he absolutely flew in the mountains during the Tour. He finished second in the Tour after seven seasons and multiple setbacks in Grand Tours.

 

[vappa]

I don't think there's much room for improvement regarding his level in spring, but there certainly is for the Tour if he manages his peak form and training.

As for that margin, did Remco have room for improvement? After all, his climbing level was mediocre until June this year, yet he absolutely flew in the mountains during the Tour. He finished second in the Tour after seven seasons and multiple setbacks in Grand Tours.

I agree with the first part, Tour level wasn't his peak it seems

Regarding the 2nd part, I think it was clear that Remco can/should improve his climbing towards the Tour, which he managed to do so

 

[Forever The Best]

I thought his performance was pretty disappointing after his exploits is Pais Vasco and Liege (he was very good in Strade and Fleche as well). I expected him to finish 3rd behind Pogacar and Vingegaard at the start of the race. Maybe he is better on shorter climbs and/or worse in 3 week races. Or maybe they just mistimed his shape. Or maybe the Dauphine crash affected him.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Honestly, he needs a mentor. A mentor named Roglic. Seixas was used and abused as the podium contenders’ donkey stage after stage. He pulled a ton compared to Del Toro, Lipo, Sjkelmose.

Sure, he never looked spectacular in the Tour, never looked like a killer. Pretty anonymous really. But then I remember how imperious he looked this spring and how he crashed out of the Dauphine. I also don’t think Roglic would have lost that 2020 Tour if not for the Dauphine crash. Similarly, it no doubt impacted Paul here.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I get your point entirely, although to be fair Gaudu did sniff at Pog and Vinge back in Paris-Nice 2023.

The negative read on Seixas is that he hit his peak way too early in the season and then basically just held it until the summer. Then the question is whether his spring peak would have allowed for a better result in the Tour if he'd peaked for July instead of April? I don't know tbh. Results can look lopsided when a rider brings the firepower to a race that others are using as prep.

Even Liège in hindsight isn't that much of a big deal because clearly Evenepoel in particular had way more in the tank to give than what he showed that day.

La Redoute was pretty impressive.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Your lung capacity, muscle mass, testosterone and pretty much every measurable aspect of performance will generally improve into mid-late 20s irrespective of how good your training has been beforehand. Ayuso for example, used as an example of stagnation in a previously well-trained cyclist, is a much faster now than he was at 19, it's just that the general level has improved so much that it looks like he's got worse by comparison.

Seixas is so young that his main problems could end up coming from riders we haven't heard of yet, the only disappointment comes as a result of inflated expectations placed upon him. It's hard to say whether he really peaked in spring because he did his best performances on short climbs with no prior fatigue, I think Solaison after 2 hard weeks was probably his best ever long(ish) climb.

 

[TheKidsCallMeBoss]

I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being "just" a slightly better version of Ayuso.

 

[Tonton]

I don't understand some of the negativity: we can argue that lining him up for Le Tour was a mistake, like many i.e. Guimard did/does, but in the end, Paul Seixas had a super solid GT debut. Now he knows what it takes, he has to plan his next GT, not like he did this year after a big spring and a win in Itzulia. These decisions need to be made in November, not in April or May.

Great job Paul. Giro next year is the way to go imo. With preparation. In '28, Seixas will only be 21, that's plenty young enough to be back at Le Tour.

 

[Rackham]

La Redoute was pretty impressive.

Maybe. But I have memories of Enric Mas holding Pog's wheel in Lombardia 4 years ago. I only mention that because Seixas' spring form led to what is in my view the most annoying TdF performance by a rider in a very long time.

It's quite straightforward: whenever Seixas merely grabbed a bidon, or blew his nose, or took someone's wheel, it was "extraordinary", or "bluffant à 19 ans" as Jalabert would say. The narrative was secure from minute one in Barcelona and it's based entirely on hopium he'll win the Tour someday, so every expert agrees he's raced an amazing TdF. He could have collapsed today and the conclusion would have been identical.

That's not conducive towards anything. I say judge him based on what he showed. Not fantasies about an idealized future.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Where's your passion @Red Rick ? I'd ride free just to win a TdF stage.

jk/

But I'm a party pooper on this rider. The Tour de France has never been about linear progression for young future champions making incremental progress until they suddenly come of age and dominate. And that's the problem because every news piece praising Seixas is based on that misconception of how champions are born. In my experience - bar only a few - TdF champs land almost ready made and that's that. But I've seen loads of "this rider is the future!" types over the decades and they never amount to more than support roles.

If Vinge was still in this race, Seixas would be fifth. Arguably closer to sixth if Lipowitz was still in it. That doesn't impress me.

Of course the argument that young riders don't just increase in a linear fashion until dominating (see: Ayuso) is correct, but is it true to say that TdF champs always land ready-made? Keeping in mind that Seixas's grand tour debut is 4th place (!) in the Tour, who has really done better?

Pogacar, OK - his 3rd place in the Vuelta was far more impressive, especially as he looked to even be the strongest at times - but then he might literally be the GOAT.

Vingegaard' s 2020 Vuelta is hard to judge considering he was a domestique, and his Tour a year later was stronger than Seixas's, but if Seixas makes a similar jump between first and second GTs he would have probably a higher level.

Bernal similar story to Vingegaard, but again I wouldn't say he was a ready-made champion - at least no more than Seixas.

Thomas and Froome, whatever, who cares?

Nibali actually did follow the arc of improving gradually until ready to challenge, but he's sort of a unique modern Tour winner in some respects. Regardless of whether the Contador/Froome abandons changed the result, his level was absurdly high.

Wiggins? See Thomas and Froome above.

Cadel Evans was not ready-made, but his was an opportunist's win and not really the blueprint for future champions.

Contador similar to Vingegaard and Bernal in terms of average to decent grand tour debut, followed by amazing second outing.

So, in terms of modern riders, there's really very few ready-made champions. And Seixas, regardless of age, looks about as ready-made as anyone. The question, really, is whether having a very good grand tour debut (ala Seixas) prevents you from making the same jump as riders who had merely decent debuts (Vingegaard, Bernal, Contador)? Or, similarly, if finishing 4th at 19 is any better or worse an indicator for future success than finishing 4th at, say, 23?

Judging by recent history, his next grand tour will tell us far more.

 

[Rackham]

Of course the argument that young riders don't just increase in a linear fashion until dominating (see: Ayuso) is correct, but is it true to say that TdF champs always land ready-made? Keeping in mind that Seixas's grand tour debut is 4th place (!) in the Tour, who has really done better?

Pogacar, OK - his 3rd place in the Vuelta was far more impressive, especially as he looked to even be the strongest at times - but then he might literally be the GOAT.

Vingegaard' s 2020 Vuelta is hard to judge considering he was a domestique, and his Tour a year later was stronger than Seixas's, but if Seixas makes a similar jump between first and second GTs he would have probably a higher level.

Bernal similar story to Vingegaard, but again I wouldn't say he was a ready-made champion - at least no more than Seixas.

Thomas and Froome, whatever, who cares?

Nibali actually did follow the arc of improving gradually until ready to challenge, but he's sort of a unique modern Tour winner in some respects. Regardless of whether the Contador/Froome abandons changed the result, his level was absurdly high.

Wiggins? See Thomas and Froome above.

Cadel Evans was not ready-made, but his was an opportunist's win and not really the blueprint for future champions.

Contador similar to Vingegaard and Bernal in terms of average to decent grand tour debut, followed by amazing second outing.

So, in terms of modern riders, there's really very few ready-made champions. And Seixas, regardless of age, looks about as ready-made as anyone. The question, really, is whether having a very good grand tour debut (ala Seixas) prevents you from making the same jump as riders who had merely decent debuts (Vingegaard, Bernal, Contador)? Or, similarly, if finishing 4th at 19 is any better or worse an indicator for future success than finishing 4th at, say, 23?

Judging by recent history, his next grand tour will tell us far more.

An example of linear trajectory would be Roglič who had one of the most linear curves I've seen tbh - which is ironic considering how much older he was when he hit his peak. 2016 Giro he won a stage, TdF 2017 was stage hunting (successfully), 2018 was GC (bounced off the podium in the final ITT after having won a mountain stage) and 2019 were his first real grand tour attempts (borked Giro, won Vuelta), then the rest is well documented.

Seixas needs to close 12 minutes on Pog - or hope to be best of the rest when Pog ages out of the sport. I also don't think Vingegaard's first grand tour can be counted either considering it was Covid Vuelta, aka a shortened GT (it was 2.5 weeks long instead of 3) and he was absolutely not there for GC. His 2021 TdF was his first 'real' GT where he went prepared and he dropped Pog on Ventoux.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

I get your point entirely, although to be fair Gaudu did sniff at Pog and Vinge back in Paris-Nice 2023.

The negative read on Seixas is that he hit his peak way too early in the season and then basically just held it until the summer. Then the question is whether his spring peak would have allowed for a better result in the Tour if he'd peaked for July instead of April? I don't know tbh. Results can look lopsided when a rider brings the firepower to a race that others are using as prep.

Even Liège in hindsight isn't that much of a big deal because clearly Evenepoel in particular had way more in the tank to give than what he showed that day.

That is as real as saying Arensmann beat Pogačar last year, or that Carapaz beat Pogačar today. These are facts shaped by circumstancesm specifically, marking a rival in two instances and playing babysitter in the other.

He was simply marking Vingegaard. Pogacar didn't care about Gaudu at all in that race. But he did care about Seixas at Liège. There is no comparison.

Without Pogačar, Vingegaard would have won that Paris-Nice easy.

 

[Rackham]

That is as real as saying Arensmann beat Pogačar last year, or that Carapaz beat Pogačar today. These are facts shaped by circumstancesm specifically, marking a rival in two instances and playing babysitter in the other.

He was simply marking Vingegaard. Pogacar didn't care about Gaudu at all in that race. But he did care about Seixas at Liège. There is no comparison.

Without Pogačar, Vingegaard would have won that Paris-Nice easy.

No. Gaudu put over a minute into the first rider not called Pog or Vinge in that Paris-Nice. He was glazed to oblivion in France after that performance. It wasn't about Pog or finishing ahead of Vingegaard per se. It was the promise of what could come. And it never did.

And Liège as a one day monument offers less data to go on that Paris-Nice. Even Itzulia is less informative than Paris-Nice due to the particularity of those Basque roads and the fact it's shorter.

 

[DogMan2026]

Barring Pogi not crashing or just not participating, my money is on Sexias to be the next non Pogacar winner of the TDF. If I were a team with lots of money, I would go after him hard this off-season.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

No. Gaudu put over a minute into the first rider not called Pog or Vinge in that Paris-Nice. He was glazed to oblivion in France after that performance. It wasn't about Pog or finishing ahead of Vingegaard per se. It was the promise of what could come. And it never did.

And Liège as a one day monument offers less data to go on that Paris-Nice. Even Itzulia is less informative than Paris-Nice due to the particularity of those Basque roads and the fact it's shorter.

The comparison with Seixas simply makes no sense in this case. Pogačar rode that Paris-Nice without paying any heed to Gaudu, whereas at Liège, Seixas was the only rider he was concerned about ( Remco until the attack).

 

[bob.a.feet]

An example of linear trajectory would be Roglič who had one of the most linear curves I've seen tbh - which is ironic considering how much older he was when he hit his peak. 2016 Giro he won a stage, TdF 2017 was stage hunting (successfully), 2018 was GC (bounced off the podium in the final ITT after having won a mountain stage) and 2019 were his first real grand tour attempts (borked Giro, won Vuelta), then the rest is well documented.

Seixas needs to close 12 minutes on Pog - or hope to be best of the rest when Pog ages out of the sport. I also don't think Vingegaard's first grand tour can be counted either considering it was Covid Vuelta, aka a shortened GT (it was 2.5 weeks long instead of 3) and he was absolutely not there for GC. His 2021 TdF was his first 'real' GT where he went prepared and he dropped Pog on Ventoux.

What you say about Vingegaard is true but also ties in with my point: this isn't just Seixas's first GT targeting GC, it's his first GT full stop. Yes, Vingegaard's 2021 Tour was more impressive, but he did ride a GT previously, and so would have experience of planning, peaking, adapting physiologically to 3 (or 2.5) weeks of racing.

Seixas's performance this year doesn't prove that he will ever win the Tour; what I find bizarre is acting as if it is proof that he won't ever win the Tour.

It's as if due to collective Ayuso-itis we're actually holding his age against him when, really, finishing 4th at the Tour is an extremely impressive debut GT at any age. And when you consider who finished ahead of him - 5-time Tour winner, Vuelta winner, Giro runner-up - there's been very few better debuts.

 

[solo80k]

Send this kid to the Giro with the experienced leader to understand GTs better. He needs to mature to compete with mutants like Teddy or Jonas.

This approach worked extremely well for IDT with Majka as his mentor last year.

 

[memyselfandI]

Seixas has done fine this Tour, but he is lacking a bit for me as well compared to the spring. There he really had that big extra, but here he seems to be lacking that little bit extra.

Nonetheless a very good GT debut for a 19-year old who can hopefully improve in the years to come.

There is also this minoresque thing that in the tour everybody is top top top. So he was looking good typical talented explosive young gun sorta spring chicken back spring. Same same but different. What is good in March is not enough in May and what is good in May is not enough in July.