Peter Sagan M-SR

[royalpig180]

While at the current Liquigas-Cannondale training camp, Peter Sagan stated that his goal for the early season is Milan-San Remo.

Check this article:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/liquigas-cannondale-hit-the-dolomites-for-training-camp

I just don't think this is possible for him (at least not yet) because first of all the race is so long and though he is no longer a neo-pro, he's still only 20 years old making the distance a challenge for him, as the Worlds showed. Secondly, though he has a fast sprint from a small group, I just don't see him outsprinting the likes of Oscar Freire, Petacchi, or Cavendish (if he manages to make it to the sprint at the front. I suppose he could do it in the future in just the right circumstances, but it doesn't seem likely right now...

 

[Siriuscat]

While at the current Liquigas-Cannondale training camp, Peter Sagan stated that his goal for the early season is Milan-San Remo.

Check this article:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/liquigas-cannondale-hit-the-dolomites-for-training-camp

I just don't think this is possible for him (at least not yet) because first of all the race is so long and though he is no longer a neo-pro, he's still only 20 years old making the distance a challenge for him, as the Worlds showed. Secondly, though he has a fast sprint from a small group, I just don't see him outsprinting the likes of Oscar Freire, Petacchi, or Cavendish (if he manages to make it to the sprint at the front. I suppose he could do it in the future in just the right circumstances, but it doesn't seem likely right now...

I don't think many of his results last season seemed "likely" to be honest, nothing would surprise me of Peter. Remember very few people reckoned Cav would win MSR the year he did, " he wasn't ready"

 

[royalpig180]

I don't think many of his results last season seemed "likely" to be honest, nothing would surprise me of Peter. Remember very few people reckoned Cav would win MSR the year he did, " he wasn't ready"

This is true, but I just don't think he has the speed necessary to win it. He could try a late attack but that's always a tiny chance. He'll always beat Michael Rogers and Dave Zabriskie, or Ryder Hesjedal in a sprint, but I just don't see him contending against the likes of Hushovd, Freire, Davis, and other sprinters who are a fairly sure bet to make it to the finish in the front.

 

[Ferminal]

I agree with your analysis.

Not going to beat Petacchi, Cavendish, Haussler etc if they are at the finish. Nor Freire when he's at his most clinical.

This case is a bit similar to Gilbert, not going to win a bunch sprint, but will win from a split group (or off the front crazy attack P-N style ). Therefore his chances are low, at least at this stage of his career, but who knows what he will develop into.

 

[Martina]

Sagan M-SR

Why to choose small targets?
Peter can surprise anytime, needs to find his limits too... and to try is much better that to give up

 

[Kvinto]

Anyway he is a special rider. I don't know who else of current cyclist showed such a performance in the races of such a level in 20. TDU, Paris-Nice, Romandie, California, Philadelphia, GP Ouest France, Veneto, Romagna and Montréal. Great list for 20 years old guy. And i'm sure, he'll be something more than just a sprinter he has all the potential to become a rider for any of the best classic races.
By the way in my opinion quote "the dream is San Remo" doesn't mean "San Remo is 2011 goal". He's young and usually young riders have problems with the long distances, and biggest Peter's 2010 results were gained at 150...180km long races... but Sagan also proved, he can be strong at 200km and more distances: 1st at Big Bear Lake stage Tour of California 217.7 km; 2nd at Philadelphia IC 251.1 km; 7th at GP Ouest France, 248.3 km and 4th at Giro della Romagna 211.7 km. It's all in 20, imo it is good to say the least.
I will not be surprised if Sagan would be able to reach even top-5 at San Remo 2011. Why not? Sasha Modolo could be 4th at this years edition, but I heard his name first time only month before, at Giro di Sardegna. He was 22? What matter? At the start of San Remo 2011 Sagan will be 21, Tom Boonen stood on the Roubaix podium at 21 and I think it was a way harder. I know, there is Cavendish, there is Hushovd... Davis, Petacchi, Haussler, Freire... but it doesn't mean Peter cann't perform well at Milan - San Remo.

 

[ergmonkey]

I don't think Sagan said he was going to win the race; rather, he promised to target San-Remo.

Liquigas is an Italian team--obviously somebody needs to act like a serious leader in Milan-San Remo. Bennati and Chicchi have both left the squad for 2011. If Sagan doesn't try to make a good showing there, who should??

 

[El Pistolero]

Are we going to make a topic for everyone that targets MSR?

Pretty much every cyclist targets it. Climbers, sprinters, rouleurs, etc

There's no harm done in targetting MSR. At least not if you're going for the classics or the Giro. If you want to win the Tour it's probably a bit too early to get good form. But then again, looking at the guys who won Paris-Nice and the Tour in the same year(Floyd included)...

 

[boardhanger]

It all depends on Team Liqui whether or not they can armchair him out of the wind up until final 30K's.....then its game on !!

 

[profff]

peter sagan v was able to win in aix en proence in 2010 paris-nice, getting clear on a short hill and being able to resist the peloton come back till the line. just a few meters of advantage.
don't you think that he can do a similar move on the poggio and make it to the line, maybe in a small group?
we don't even know the limit of this guy.

i do not mean that he will win, i definitely think that M-SR is one of the race he has to target.
it is very difficult that a finisseur can beat the sprinters in the "primavera rosa", but sagan is one of the few that can accomplish such a performance.

 

[El Pistolero]

peter sagan in paris -nice was able to win in aix en proence in 2010 paris-nice, getting clear on a short hill and being able to resist the peloton come back till the line. just a few meters of advantage.
don't you think that he can do a similar move on the poggio and make it to the line, maybe in a small group?
we don't even know the limit of this guy.

i do not mean that he will win, i definitely think that M-SR is one of the race he has to target.
it is very difficult that a finisseur can beat the sprinters in the "primavera rosa", but sagan is one of the few that can accomplish such a performance.

Mostly thanks to Contador.

 

[maltiv]

peter sagan v was able to win in aix en proence in 2010 paris-nice, getting clear on a short hill and being able to resist the peloton come back till the line. just a few meters of advantage.
don't you think that he can do a similar move on the poggio and make it to the line, maybe in a small group?
we don't even know the limit of this guy.

i do not mean that he will win, i definitely think that M-SR is one of the race he has to target.
it is very difficult that a finisseur can beat the sprinters in the "primavera rosa", but sagan is one of the few that can accomplish such a performance.

Indeed, but he'll need a few years I think. Sagan might be in the lead group over Poggio this year but they'll most likely be caught because of lack of organisation. If Sagan is in a group of climbers/puncheurs then they won't cooporate because they'll know he'll beat them easily in the sprint.

Anyway, my early prediction is that next years M-SR will be won by EBH, who, unlike Sagan, can beat the top sprinters in a bunch sprint.

 

[profff]

it is difficult to remember anybody having an impact like sagan in his first year as a pro.
so wait before defining his limits
we do not yet know what will sagan could do next year.

 

[Kvinto]

I don't believe in Sagan's solo on the Poggio, it is still 6km to the finish line (his attack at Aix-en-Provence stage of Paris-Nice was on the hill, less than 2km to the finish and I didn't notice something like a chasing group there). Maybe a small group but I think he can be close also in a mass sprint.

 

[royalpig180]

Indeed, but he'll need a few years I think. Sagan might be in the lead group over Poggio this year but they'll most likely be caught because of lack of organisation. If Sagan is in a group of climbers/puncheurs then they won't cooporate because they'll know he'll beat them easily in the sprint. Anyway, my early prediction is that next years M-SR will be won by EBH, who, unlike Sagan, can beat the top sprinters in a bunch sprint.

Good point. This is exactly what happened in GP Montreal this year. Because he and EBH were in the chasing group, no one else was willing to work to bring back Gesink, which the 7 or 8 man group should have done relatively easily had they worked together. So I guess Sagan would be best suited to a solo attack on the Poggio rather than have to deal with some stragglers sitting on his wheel.

 

[maltiv]

So I guess Sagan would be best suited to a solo attack on the Poggio rather than have to deal with some stragglers sitting on his wheel.

Yes, but he's not strong enough to do that yet. Even if he gets a few seconds over the top, well, he's no Cancellara and won't be able to maintain that gap. Unless his improvement from 2010-2011 is as big as his 2009-2010 improvement of course, in which case he'd be unbeatable.

 

[hrotha]

Indeed, but he'll need a few years I think. Sagan might be in the lead group over Poggio this year but they'll most likely be caught because of lack of organisation. If Sagan is in a group of climbers/puncheurs then they won't cooporate because they'll know he'll beat them easily in the sprint.

Anyway, my early prediction is that next years M-SR will be won by EBH, who, unlike Sagan, can beat the top sprinters in a bunch sprint.

Depends. In Lombardia Scarponi cooperated with Gilbert even though he knew he'd beat him. It's very common to see folks riding for 2nd, and happy to do so. 2nd in MSR is pretty great after all, and on the Poggio there's not a lot of room to pick what your group will be like - if you're with Sagan and decide that's not your chance, so you don't cooperate, you might not get a second one before you run out of Poggio.

 

[ingsve]

I think this is the right goal for Sagan. If you're still going to ride top races then you might as well aim at doing well in some of them and this is a more realistic goal than aiming at RVV, PR, AGR or whatever races he might go for in the future.

He certainly shouldn't attack on the Poggio but instead try and follow as best as possible. If there is a group that gets away then he will be there and if they get caught he won't have wasted as much energy by attacking so that he can still put in a decent showing against better sprinters. I think that's his best chances for a decent performance by a 21 year old. Besides it's not like there will be that many top sprinters left. There's usually only 3-5 of them so a top 10 finish is well within his grasp if he is there at the end.

 

[flicker]

first or fourth. He is up and coming, he could snap the elastic. 0therwise 4th in bunch sprint.

 

[Matthijs]

Depends. In Lombardia Scarponi cooperated with Gilbert even though he knew he'd beat him. It's very common to see folks riding for 2nd, and happy to do so. 2nd in MSR is pretty great after all, and on the Poggio there's not a lot of room to pick what your group will be like - if you're with Sagan and decide that's not your chance, so you don't cooperate, you might not get a second one before you run out of Poggio.

I think it was a logical step to work with Gilbert. Scarponi could have a change dropping Gilbert on the last hill. In normal circumstances (Gilbert not on worldwinning form, normal weather) Scarponi had a maybe a small change breaking Gilbert. In hindsight he had not, but this was only clear after the last hill off course.

Besides, a two man break is very much different from a group sprint. Sagan has his speed, but in a classic final strength and timing are maybe more important. + Speed isn't the same after 300k, for no one. And the non-sprinter can have a change in the last 6k to break free of Sagan on the flat. Any non-sprinter has more change of winning MSR with Sagan in a break than by waiting in the bunch.

Cavendish surprised everybody with his ability to go over the Poggio. Sagan has also yet to show he can handle the distance. That's not the same...
I think Sagan will not be ready this year, but I like the idea of him, Gilbert, Pozzato and who knows, working together and try avoid a bunch sprint.

About EBH: his bunch sprints are allways with a huge lead-out train. At MSR most teammembers do not survive the distance, the Cipressa, the Poggio and the chasing of the break, so usually there is not that much lead-out as in normal stages. I think this is a disadvantage to EBH. has he proven 300k allready btw?

 

[momomomo]

About EBH: his bunch sprints are allways with a huge lead-out train. At MSR most teammembers do not survive the distance, the Cipressa, the Poggio and the chasing of the break, so usually there is not that much lead-out as in normal stages. I think this is a disadvantage to EBH. has he proven 300k allready btw?

I'm Norwegian and a fan of EBH so que bias: As far as I recall his win in tirreno-adriatico last year was void of a lead-out. But that was just about his only win in a big bunch.

He held on to the poggio last year when his stomach problems returned. This may be a problem this year too, but I believe he can go the distance.

 

[ingsve]

About EBH: his bunch sprints are allways with a huge lead-out train. At MSR most teammembers do not survive the distance, the Cipressa, the Poggio and the chasing of the break, so usually there is not that much lead-out as in normal stages. I think this is a disadvantage to EBH. has he proven 300k allready btw?

The problem EBH has in bunch sprints at least in the past is that he used to feel nervous or uneasy navigating the huge field in high speed so he's not as experienced at doing that without a lead out though he is getting more comfortable with it.

MSR on the other hand is nothing like that a lot of the time. It more often has the texture of a small group sprint and in those situations EBH has usually been very solid.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think without a team EBH would perform a lot better especially because of how often Sky went way too early in sprints! Probably a better small group sprinter than most.

 

[profff]

you need to stay more than 7 hours on the bike to win la primavera rosa
both peter and edvald need to prove they can handle this
if they can stand that, they have the skills to try to win, even if san remo is becoming more and more a sprinter affair.
in the last 15 years we had a great majority of bunch sprint finish

if the manie climb will be in the route and some team will push hard on it, the sprinters will find it more difficult-
if the manie is not there or nobody will hammer before the capi and via aurelia, it will be a bunch sprint.
if the weather will be bad, rain and cold, EBH and PS will have more chance, as gilbert and the other attackers.
do not forget pozzato ; he has to prove something after the deceiving worlds

 

[ttrider]

One of the strongest team in the peloton will be liqui and with no Bennati or Chichi they will surely hammer the pace last year i think they had nibali and people attacking, they will surely make the race hard along with Astana for Davis and Rabobank for Friere, im not saying they wont be there but there is a very good chance Cavendish wont be.

For me if the pace is high the favorite will ride with Garmin Cervelo, it could be any of Haussler Hushovd and Farrar