I was just about to post this. It's still early, no real way to gauge mountain form, but I think Velits has a pretty good chance. Especially with riders like Gesink and Wiggins out. He's well positioned and if people are mentioning Cadel as a threat why not Velits. If there were multiple time trials he could have had grander aspirations.
Top 10 is within the realms of possibility with Gesink, Kreuziger, Leipheimer, Horner and Wiggins all coming across misfortune so far. Top 5 no way unless quite a few other guys have a disastrous crash/injury.
Let me start about his form comparison to last year, no results prior to tour because of bad luck in falls,the same like last year,but he gets better as the race progresses,since he is a little under raced this year the same like vuelta a year ago,if the weather is bad his is better,and can climb with the best-see stage into lagos covadonga last year where he came in with nibali and gained time on rivals like Roche,he only lost a handful of seconds to doped Mozquerra on that stage,if he doesnt get a really bad day in Alps in stages like galibier or alpe d huez, he has a big chance finishing in top 10,I dont think that Martin is as consistent climber as Peter,so I think that team will work on him as the race progresses, he may struggle in really hot mountain top finishes,where he may loose 2 mins to the likes of Vandenbroek or Sanchez, but in the time trial he will put at least, 3mins to them and 3 mins to likes of F.Schleck or Basso,so I think it will only be a matter of seconds which will depend if he finishes 5th or 14th and if it wont be too hot my best is top 7 for P.Velits, I think that people who follow his progress will agree with my analysis, he will not be on podium because a.schleck,contador or evans will put more time it to him than he can gain back in grenoble,pity that the ITTs are not as long as in Armstrong days,other vise he could have a podium shot.
To be honest I was always inclined to think his Vuelta podium was a fluke and pretty unbelievable, and that he'd never be able to replicate that form, but with his performances the last few days I've been slowly changing my mind.