Giro d'Italia Poll: Blockhaus climbing time

[Red Rick]

Boys, it's time for some quality opinion polling. Closest estimate gets a coveted like by yours truly, and the approval of the Petulant Whiners United. We are using W2W climbing times because they post fast and I'm too lazy to circumnavigate the fact I don't have a twitter account.

Please note I disabled changing votes

Previous climbing times as per W2W

1		Nairo Quintana KOM	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:40:36	6.16	20.27	1704	83 1
2		Thibaut Pinot SB	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:40:58	6.10	20.09	1689	81 1
3		Tom Dumoulin PB	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:41:00	6.10	20.07	1687	81 1
4		Bauke Mollema	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:41:17	6.05	19.94	1676	79 1
5		Vincenzo Nibali	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:41:41	5.98	19.74	1660	77 1
6		Domenico Pozzovivo	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:41:54	5.95	19.64	1651	76 1
7		Romain Bardet	Giro '22 #9	362	73 kJ/kg	0:42:11	5.85	19.51	1640	76 3
8		Jai Hindley	Giro '22 #9	362	73 kJ/kg	''	5.85	19.51	1640	76 3
9		Mikel Landa	Giro '22 #9	362	73 kJ/kg	0:42:12	5.84	19.50	1639	76 3
10		Richard Carapaz	Giro '22 #9	362	73 kJ/kg	''	5.84	19.50	1639	76 3

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The first option, under 39'40'', could be close to 39' (this is my prediction). if we eliminate the last half kilometer (which is shallower and has a descent) from VAM equation (and add 1 minute for it: probably slightly less than that) then it should take less than 38'40'' for the first 13 km of the climb (which has 1125 vertical meters). So VAM over 1745 m/h is required for 38'+ minutes on a rather low elevation nearly 9% climb. Vingo will do it with some margin.

 

[Netserk]

some crosswind but good weather

campenaerts and kuss are enough for the launch

38'40"

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Good thing for the climbing time is that a 3.5 km long shallower section is at the bottom and Vingo will have good pacemakers there to hide behind. He will probably attack 5 km into the climb (Kuss will push hard on the steep section a bit as well).

 

[YavorD]

My guess is under 39'40".
Say, 39'05"

 

[Gigs_98]

I have no idea about climbing times. 40:02!

 

[BahamontesPhantom]

39.41

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

It's a 245km stage. I don't know if we are going to see a miracle time. But will be interesting to finally have Vingegaard ride such a long stage in the mountains.

40:01 is my guess.

Edit: changed my guess by one second to have a difference to @Gigs_98 .

 

[Berniece]

Time of 2017? Think Vingegaard will destroy that if they go hard from the start

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The 2017 ascent was fast by the standards of the time and Vingegaard might not want or need to completely turn himself inside out, but even so it seems impossible for the record not to go. I’ll say 39:28.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Not too sure, but given the stage I think it might be slower than one might expect. So I just picked a random time between Tibopino and Dumo. 40:59

 

[Red Rick]

I believe the fact that they go from a descent state into the base instead of taking the false flat from sea level is a significant difference.

I expect 39:30ish too

 

[Netserk]

I believe the fact that they go from a descent state into the base instead of taking the false flat from sea level is a significant difference.

I expect 39:30ish too

@Peyresourde

how big a difference in adjustment compared to the 2017 stage ?

 

[Red Rick]

Most likely wind seems moderate SW wind all day which means mostly cross wind up the climb with may be a slight net headwind.

 

[AmRacer]

Most likely wind seems moderate SW wind all day which means mostly cross wind up the climb with may be a slight net headwind.

Tomorrow's stage is much longer and harder than the 2017 stage

 

[Red Rick]

Tomorrow's stage is much longer and harder than the 2017 stage

Which is why only Vingegaard will go faster and then only by a minute.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Simon Yates lost 11 minutes here for some reason after beating Van Der Poel and Dumoulin in a flat time trial. Then won the hardest stage in the race against all the GC guys and abandoned 2 days after.

I think they will go only slightly quicker than Nairo because the stage is really hard and Visma's leadout isn't their best, Kuss usually just looks around at the scenery like a cyclotourist for the first 2 weeks.

 

[Red Rick]

Simon Yates lost 11 minutes here for some reason after beating Van Der Poel and Dumoulin in a flat time trial. Then won the hardest stage in the race against all the GC guys and abandoned 2 days after.

I think they will go only slightly quicker than Nairo because the stage is really hard and Visma's leadout isn't their best, Kuss usually just looks around at the scenery like a cyclotourist for the first 2 weeks.

Kuss shows up when the first mountain shows up.

 

[Netserk]

Kuss usually just looks around at the scenery like a cyclotourist for the first 2 weeks.

 

[SafeBet]

Simon Yates lost 11 minutes here for some reason after beating Van Der Poel and Dumoulin in a flat time trial. Then won the hardest stage in the race against all the GC guys and abandoned 2 days after.

Peak Simon Yates rollercoaster experience.

 

[Peyresourde]

@Peyresourde

how big a difference in adjustment compared to the 2017 stage ?

Previous performances on Blockhaus:

Nairo Quintana | 78 (-3): 6.17 W/kg for 40:35 on Blockhaus (Giro 2017)
Richard Carapaz | 77 (+4): 5.96 W/kg for 42:14 on Blockhaus (Giro 2022) (headwind)


If we assume a time of 40 minutes tomorrow (65 % drafting) after a normal stage, it could look like this:

Jonas Vingegaard | 87 (+3): 6.26 W/kg for 40:00 on Blockhaus (Giro 2026)

 

[Netserk]

Previous performances on Blockhaus:

Nairo Quintana | 78 (-3): 6.17 W/kg for 40:35 on Blockhaus (Giro 2017)
Richard Carapaz | 77 (+4): 5.96 W/kg for 42:14 on Blockhaus (Giro 2022) (headwind)


If we assume a time of 40 minutes tomorrow (65 % drafting) after a normal stage, it could look like this:

Jonas Vingegaard | 87 (+3): 6.26 W/kg for 40:00 on Blockhaus (Giro 2026)

i thought the approach would count for more in the other direction than the stage length

from scafa to roccamorice is more than 400 vertical meters

 

[AmRacer]

Previous performances on Blockhaus:

Nairo Quintana | 78 (-3): 6.17 W/kg for 40:35 on Blockhaus (Giro 2017)
Richard Carapaz | 77 (+4): 5.96 W/kg for 42:14 on Blockhaus (Giro 2022) (headwind)


If we assume a time of 40 minutes tomorrow (65 % drafting) after a normal stage, it could look like this:

Jonas Vingegaard | 87 (+3): 6.26 W/kg for 40:00 on Blockhaus (Giro 2026)

Tomorrow's stage is longer but the 2022 was hard too, while 2017 quite easy

 

[canina82]

Boys, it's time for some quality opinion polling. Closest estimate gets a coveted like by yours truly, and the approval of the Petulant Whiners United. We are using W2W climbing times because they post fast and I'm too lazy to circumnavigate the fact I don't have a twitter account.

Please note I disabled changing votes

Previous climbing times as per W2W

1		Nairo Quintana KOM	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:40:36	6.16	20.27	1704	83 1
2		Thibaut Pinot SB	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:40:58	6.10	20.09	1689	81 1
3		Tom Dumoulin PB	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:41:00	6.10	20.07	1687	81 1
4		Bauke Mollema	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:41:17	6.05	19.94	1676	79 1
5		Vincenzo Nibali	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:41:41	5.98	19.74	1660	77 1
6		Domenico Pozzovivo	Giro '17 #9	279	55 kJ/kg	0:41:54	5.95	19.64	1651	76 1
7		Romain Bardet	Giro '22 #9	362	73 kJ/kg	0:42:11	5.85	19.51	1640	76 3
8		Jai Hindley	Giro '22 #9	362	73 kJ/kg	''	5.85	19.51	1640	76 3
9		Mikel Landa	Giro '22 #9	362	73 kJ/kg	0:42:12	5.84	19.50	1639	76 3
10		Richard Carapaz	Giro '22 #9	362	73 kJ/kg	''	5.84	19.50	1639	76 3

Under 38'

 

[Red Rick]

i thought the approach would count for more in the other direction than the stage length

from scafa to roccamorice is more than 400 vertical meters

I also wonder about just super long distance versus shorter but more altitude meters, like Valmenier.