Giro d'Italia Poll: Blockhaus climbing time

[canina82]

he could barely walk

So what do you think Roglic would do in this Giro without that crash? And in third week, what do you think he would do?
Do you think he would have gain time on stages 13 and 15 without that crash?
Just to clarify, stage 16 (where he lost time) was 6 days after his crash and after a rest day. He had some time to recover IMO even if took 1-2% of his level.
For this reason I also mentioned the Giro 2019. He was probably the second best GC rider that year (only behind Froome) and couldn't drop a past his prime Nibali (in fact he lost time).

 

[Netserk]

So what do you think Roglic would do in this Giro without that crash?
Do you think he would have gain time on stages 13 and 15 without that crash?
Just to clarify, stage 16 (where he lost time) was 6 days after his crash and after a rest day. He had some time to recover IMO even if took 1-2% of his level.
For this reason I also mentioned the Giro 2019. He was probably the second best GC rider that year (only behind Froome) and couldn't drop a past his prime Nibali (in fact he lost time).

the second week was not good for gaining time , which is also what saved him . i think hed have saved himself

i think hed have been the strongest climber in all stages of the third week without the crash

 

[canina82]

the second week was not good for gaining time , which is also what saved him . i think hed have saved himself

i think hed have been the strongest climber in all stages of the third week without the crash

Different opinions. I also think the day Roglic crashed is also the day Ineos probably lost the Giro due to TGH's crash. But this is just a feeling.

 

[Berniece]

Was a little bit bored so I decided to do some research. Some evidence (quotes) from the Giro 2023, Vuelta 2023, and more recently after LBL 2026.
"He would have won the Giro without covid".
He can't weigh 63 kg if he wants to compete in GTs but somehow in a glimpse of magic, he would win the Giro weighing 63 kg.

ROFL! Eheheh

I don't understand what any of that has to do with any of this

 

[carton]

So Bernal said it was fairly windy, and he did a bit above 6W/kg, which matches up to my back of the napkin 6.1 w/kg. Which should put Jonas and maybe even Gall at slightly above 7W/kg.

 

[Peyresourde]

So Bernal said it was fairly windy, and he did a bit above 6W/kg, which matches up to my back of the napkin 6.1 w/kg. Which should put Jonas and maybe even Gall at slightly above 7W/kg.

His power meter probably read slightly high, but it is not impossible (especially if he weighs below 60kg). I have him at 5.88 w/kg and Vingegaard at 6.38 w/kg, so a 0.5 w/kg difference.

I think he also mentioned that it was his best 40 minute power, which is hard to believe. His record (in race) should probably be from Zoncolan 2021.

 

[SHAD0W93]

it could indeed have been a superbly strong field in this giro , but despite the loss of some strong contenders it is still much better than 2024

It just isn't. Dani Martinez finished 2nd in the 2024 Giro. There is no chance Dani Martinez follows Gall on Blockhaus yesterday.

All this year is running on is name value. Hindley is looking really good and most likely will be a bigger challenge than Pogacar faced but the others are similar. Gall isn’t a threat unless he makes a step up in his consistency and weaknesses (which could be possible seeing Seixas improve) but we won’t know that until race is over.

 

[Netserk]

All this year is running on is name value

what measure do you use to conclude that ?

if you want a name neutral measure , you could consult @Peyresourde

 

[Oldman]

His power meter probably read slightly high, but it is not impossible (especially if he weighs below 60kg). I have him at 5.88 w/kg and Vingegaard at 6.38 w/kg, so a 0.5 w/kg difference.

I think he also mentioned that it was his best 40 minute power, which is hard to believe. His record (in race) should probably be from Zoncolan 2021.

That grind of a climb would tax anyone in a wind. You'd need your best output to stay upright and many rode like that was all they were capable of.

 

[Ulle97]

Roglic not injured in the Giro? He didn’t crash?

And yes, Evenepoel would have won that Giro without Covid. Has nothing to do with Roglic being injured during it… you can pretend that was Roglic normal level but it wasn’t. He showed in Vuelta 2023 and 2024 that he can be much better than Giro 2023.

Also feel free to quote me directly instead of this ridiculous mentioning of me.

I sometimes think whether or not he'd have won that Giro. He was showing well in the opening TT. Coped fine on the first hilly and uphill stages. Gran Sasso was an anti climax with about 20 riders finishing together.

The stage to Fossombrone was a concern. Losing 14 seconds on a mere bump on the road to Roglic. Then winning the ITT by just 1 second on a course that he would have put at least a minute into his rivals.

But perhaps the Covid was in his system on those 2 stages.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Different opinions. I also think the day Roglic crashed is also the day Ineos probably lost the Giro due to TGH's crash. But this is just a feeling.

I sometimes think whether or not he'd have won that Giro. He was showing well in the opening TT. Coped fine on the first hilly and uphill stages. Gran Sasso was an anti climax with about 20 riders finishing together.

The stage to Fossombrone was a concern. Losing 14 seconds on a mere bump on the road to Roglic. Then winning the ITT by just 1 second on a course that he would have put at least a minute into his rivals.

But perhaps the Covid was in his system on those 2 stages.

We’ll never know, of course, but I think it’s pretty clear Roglic would have won no matter what. This whole thing about TGH is just silly. They hadn’t gotten into the mountains when TGH crashed out; why on earth would a guy who never in his career performed at the top level of GC riders in the mountains suddenly beat them? Odd mythologizing.

Same with Remco. He’d been beaten by Roglic in Catalunya, Roglic leaned up further and came in a little undercooked so he’d be ready for the high mountains in the third week, Remco was too heavy, and as we saw in the Vuelta that year he didn’t have it in the high mountains even if he had it in the ITT and classics.

Without that crash, Roglic takes time on the mountain finishes and smashes the ITT. Pretty sure Lussari was not even very strong by his standards. @Peyresourde do I remember correctly that Roglic did better in the 2025 MTT than on Lussari?

 

[Red Rick]

2023 Giro, we don't know, it doesn't matter, who cares.

In the words of a semi passable tennis player: "If if if does not exist"

 

[Peyresourde]

We’ll never know, of course, but I think it’s pretty clear Roglic would have won no matter what. This whole thing about TGH is just silly. They hadn’t gotten into the mountains when TGH crashed out; why on earth would a guy who never in his career performed at the top level of GC riders in the mountains suddenly beat them? Odd mythologizing.

Same with Remco. He’d been beaten by Roglic in Catalunya, Roglic leaned up further and came in a little undercooked so he’d be ready for the high mountains in the third week, Remco was too heavy, and as we saw in the Vuelta that year he didn’t have it in the high mountains even if he had it in the ITT and classics.

Without that crash, Roglic takes time on the mountain finishes and smashes the ITT. Pretty sure Lussari was not even very strong by his standards. @Peyresourde do I remember correctly that Roglic did better in the 2025 MTT than on Lussari?

Lussari was an 80, Peyragudes was 85 for Roglic. I think in addition to his crash there were also rumours about him being sick just before the race and his whole team was full of late replacements. His first TT was really bad and even his second one was not good either. it is/was a big strength of Roglic that he won several GTs where he had problems while many GC riders never win anything even if things go well.

TGH seemed to be in good shape, but I agree that there is no need to overthink things with him.

As for Evenepoel, if we assume him to be healthy for 3 weeks without crashes (that he already had in reality before quitting) imo he would have won. But almost everyone crashed / got sick, so there is no need to debate this over and over.

 

[canina82]

Lussari was an 80, Peyragudes was 85 for Roglic. I think in addition to his crash there were also rumours about him being sick just before the race and his whole team was full of late replacements. His first TT was really bad and even his second one was not good either. it is/was a big strength of Roglic that he won several GTs where he had problems while many GC riders never win anything even if things go well.

TGH seemed to be in good shape, but I agree that there is no need to overthink things with him.

As for Evenepoel, if we assume him to be healthy for 3 weeks without crashes (that he already had in reality before quitting) imo he would have won. But almost everyone crashed / got sick, so there is no need to debate this over and over.

No, he wouldn't. Remco was 63 kg, he would crack in the high mountains like he always cracks when he is "overweight" (compared to his ideal weight, 61-62 kg).

 

[aphronesis]

2023 Giro, we don't know, it doesn't matter, who cares.

In the words of a semi passable tennis player: "If if if does not exist"

Should maybe be a given header for all race/rider threads.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Better question i guess, if RBH paces themself accordingly and does a TTT, do they catch Jonas on Blockhaus? If yes, does the team sprinter win the stage after.

That is something to try out in the future.

 

[aphronesis]

Better question i guess, if RBH paces themself accordingly and does a TTT, do they catch Jonas on Blockhaus? If yes, does the team sprinter win the stage after.

That is something to try out in the future.

Why RBH?

 

[SHAD0W93]

what measure do you use to conclude that ?

if you want a name neutral measure , you could consult @Peyresourde

Watts per climb aren’t the end all be all. Then this was a long stage but not too hard. Only person who over performed if Gall who’s going to be very behind after the TT. Vingegaard will have just an easy time as Pogacar did.

 

[Heston]

Better question i guess, if RBH paces themself accordingly and does a TTT, do they catch Jonas on Blockhaus? If yes, does the team sprinter win the stage after.

That is something to try out in the future.

If Pellizarri had paced himself better and dropped earlier, Jonas would also have paced himself better and won with a bigger margin to Gall in 2nd place.

 

[Netserk]

Watts per climb aren’t the end all be all. Then this was a long stage but not too hard. Only person who over performed if Gall who’s going to be very behind after the TT. Vingegaard will have just an easy time as Pogacar did.

which is why i asked you for an alternative measure , please give me something better

 

[Krzysztof_O]

what measure do you use to conclude that ?

if you want a name neutral measure , you could consult @Peyresourde

ATM Gall is looking way stronger than any of Pog's rivals in 2024 but it's way too early to be sure: a definite comparison will only be possible at the end of the race (and it could change as early as tomorrow).

 

[RedheadDane]

Voted under 39:40!

 

[SHAD0W93]

which is why i asked you for an alternative measure , please give me something better

We won’t have anything better until the end of the race. We’ve had barely had any GC stages. Maybe Gall or Hindley or someone else will step up huge and give a better fight.

 

[Netserk]

We won’t have anything better until the end of the race. We’ve had barely had any GC stages. Maybe Gall or Hindley or someone else will step up huge and give a better fight.

if you have nothing else better for now , what made you think that :

All this year is running on is name value.

 

[SHAD0W93]

if you have nothing else better for now , what made you think that :

Because that’s literally all it is right now with Gall.